Allison B. Rosen

Incidence and Mortality of Hip Fractures in the United States

CONTEXT Understanding the incidence and subsequent mortality following hip fracture is essential to measuring population health and the value of improvements in health care. OBJECTIVE To examine trends in hip fracture incidence and resulting mortality over 20 years in the US Medicare population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS Observational study using data from a 20% sample of Medicare claims from 1985-2005. In patients 65 years or older, we identified 786,717 hip fractures for analysis. Medication data were obtained from 109,805 respondents to the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey between 1992 and 2005. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture and age- and risk-adjusted mortality rates. RESULTS Between 1986 and 2005, the annual mean number of hip fractures was 957.3 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval [CI], 921.7-992.9) for women and 414.4 per 100,000 (95% CI, 401.6-427.3) for men. The age-adjusted incidence of hip fracture increased from 1986 to 1995 and then steadily declined from 1995 to 2005. In women, incidence increased 9.0%, from 964.2 per 100,000 (95% CI, 958.3-970.1) in 1986 to 1050.9 (95% CI, 1045.2-1056.7) in 1995, with a subsequent decline of 24.5% to 793.5 (95% CI, 788.7-798.3) in 2005. In men, the increase in incidence from 1986 to 1995 was 16.4%, from 392.4 (95% CI, 387.8-397.0) to 456.6 (95% CI, 452.0-461.3), and the subsequent decrease to 2005 was 19.2%, to 369.0 (95% CI, 365.1-372.8). Age- and risk-adjusted mortality in women declined by 11.9%, 14.9%, and 8.8% for 30-, 180-, and 360-day mortality, respectively. For men, age- and risk-adjusted mortality decreased by 21.8%, 25.4%, and 20.0% for 30-, 180-, and 360-day mortality, respectively. Over time, patients with hip fracture have had an increase in all comorbidities recorded except paralysis. The incidence decrease is coincident with increased use of bisphosphonates. CONCLUSION In the United States, hip fracture rates and subsequent mortality among persons 65 years and older are declining, and comorbidities among patients with hip fractures have increased.

Forecasting the Effects of Obesity and Smoking on U.S. Life Expectancy

BACKGROUND Although increases in obesity over the past 30 years have adversely affected the health of the U.S. population, there have been concomitant improvements in health because of reductions in smoking. Having a better understanding of the joint effects of these trends on longevity and quality of life will facilitate more efficient targeting of health care resources. METHODS For each year from 2005 through 2020, we forecasted life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy for a representative 18-year-old, assuming a continuation of past trends in smoking (based on data from the National Health Interview Survey for 1978 through 1979, 1990 through 1991, 1999 through 2001, and 2004 through 2006) and past trends in body-mass index (BMI) (based on data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for 1971 through 1975, 1988 through 1994, 1999 through 2002, and 2003 through 2006). The 2003 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey was used to examine the effects of smoking and BMI on health-related quality of life. RESULTS The negative effects of increasing BMI overwhelmed the positive effects of declines in smoking in multiple scenarios. In the base case, increases in the remaining life expectancy of a typical 18-year-old are held back by 0.71 years or 0.91 quality-adjusted years between 2005 and 2020. If all U.S. adults became nonsmokers of normal weight by 2020, we forecast that the life expectancy of an 18-year-old would increase by 3.76 life-years or 5.16 quality-adjusted years. CONCLUSIONS If past obesity trends continue unchecked, the negative effects on the health of the U.S. population will increasingly outweigh the positive effects gained from declining smoking rates. Failure to address continued increases in obesity could result in an erosion of the pattern of steady gains in health observed since early in the 20th century.

Bias in published cost effectiveness studies: systematic review

Abstract Objective To investigate if published studies tend to report favourable cost effectiveness ratios (below

Impact Of Decreasing Copayments On Medication Adherence Within A Disease Management Environment

20 000,

Trends in the prevalence and mortality of cognitive impairment in the United States: Is there evidence of a compression of cognitive morbidity?

50 000, and

Colorectal Cancer Screening Disparities Related to Obesity and Gender

100 000 per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained) and evaluate study characteristics associated with this phenomenon. Design Systematic review. Studies reviewed 494 English language studies measuring health effects in QALYs published up to December 2001 identified using Medline, HealthSTAR, CancerLit, Current Content, and EconLit databases. Main outcome measures Incremental cost effectiveness ratios measured in dollars set to the year of publication. Results Approximately half the reported incremental cost effectiveness ratios (712 of 1433) were below

Cost-Utility Analyses in Orthopaedic Surgery

20 000/QALY. Studies funded by industry were more likely to report cost effectiveness ratios below

Variations in risk attitude across race, gender, and education

20 000/QALY (adjusted odds ratio 2.1, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 3.3),

Hospitalizations and deaths among adults with cardiovascular disease who underuse medications because of cost: A longitudinal analysis

50 000/QALY (3.2, 1.8 to 5.7), and

Trends in Thrombolytic Use for Ischemic Stroke in the United States

100 000/QALY (3.3, 1.6 to 6.8). Studies of higher methodological quality (adjusted odds ratio 0.58, 0.37 to 0.91) and those conducted in Europe (0.59, 0.33 to 1.1) and the United States (0.44, 0.26 to 0.76) rather than elsewhere were less likely to report ratios below