Allison Crimmins

Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

United States. Environmental Protection Agency. Climate Change Division (Contract EP-BPA-12-H-0023, Call Order EP-B13H-00143)

Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change

Abstract Future climate change is expected to lengthen and intensify pollen seasons in the U.S., potentially increasing incidence of allergic asthma. We developed a proof‐of‐concept approach for estimating asthma emergency department (ED) visits in the U.S. associated with present‐day and climate‐induced changes in oak pollen. We estimated oak pollen season length for moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5) and severe climate change scenarios (RCP8.5) through 2090 using five climate models and published relationships between temperature, precipitation, and oak pollen season length. We calculated asthma ED visit counts associated with 1994–2010 average oak pollen concentrations and simulated future oak pollen season length changes using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, driven by epidemiologically derived concentration‐response relationships. Oak pollen was associated with 21,200 (95% confidence interval, 10,000–35,200) asthma ED visits in the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest U.S. in 2010, with damages valued at

Climate Benefits of U.S. EPA Programs and Policies That Reduced Methane Emissions 1993–2013

10.4 million. Nearly 70% of these occurred among children age <18 years. Severe climate change could increase oak pollen season length and associated asthma ED visits by 5% and 10% on average in 2050 and 2090, with a marginal net present value through 2090 of

Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the USA and potential effect of future climate change: a modelling analysis

10.4 million (additional to the baseline value of

Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

346.2 million). Moderate versus severe climate change could avoid >50% of the additional oak pollen‐related asthma ED visits in 2090. Despite several key uncertainties and limitations, these results suggest that aeroallergens pose a substantial U.S. public health burden, that climate change could increase U.S. allergic disease incidence, and that mitigating climate change may have benefits from avoided pollen‐related health impacts.

Quantifying and monetizing potential climate change policy impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and wildfires in the United States

The United States (U.S.) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has established voluntary programs to reduce methane (CH4) emissions, and regulations that either directly reduce CH4 or provide co-benefits of reducing CH4 emissions while controlling for other air pollutants. These programs and regulations address four sectors that are among the largest domestic CH4 emissions sources: municipal solid waste landfills, oil and natural gas, coal mining, and agricultural manure management. Over the 1993-2013 time period, 127.9 Tg of CH4 emissions reductions were attributed to these programs, equal to about 18% of the counterfactual (or potential) domestic emissions over that time, with almost 70% of the abatement due to landfill sector regulations. Reductions attributed to the voluntary programs increased nearly continuously during the study period. We quantified how these reductions influenced atmospheric CH4 concentration and global temperature, finding a decrease in concentration of 28 ppb and an avoided temperature rise of 0.006 °C by 2013. Further, we monetized the climate and ozone-health impacts of the CH4 reductions, yielding an estimated benefit of

Tropical and extratropical cyclone damages under climate change

255 billion. These results indicate that EPA programs and policies have made a strong contribution to CH4 abatement, with climate and air quality benefits.

Focus on agriculture and forestry benefits of reducing climate change impacts

Abstract Background Future climate change is expected to lengthen and intensify pollen seasons in the USA, potentially increasing incidence of allergic asthma. We examined the health consequences of present day oak pollen levels and climate-induced changes in oak pollen on asthma emergency department visits in the USA. Methods We estimated oak pollen season length for moderate (RCP4.5) and severe climate change scenarios (RCP8.5) from 2010 through to 2090 using five climate models and published relationships between temperature, precipitation, and pollen season length. We calculated asthma emergency department visit counts associated with 1994–2010 average oak pollen concentrations and with simulated future oak pollen season length changes using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP-CE), driven by epidemiologically derived concentration-response relationships. Findings Oak pollen was associated with an estimated 7400, 8800, and 5000 asthma emergency department visits in the northeast, southeast, and midwest USA, respectively, in 2010, with substantial economic damages. Most of these visits (14 600) occurred among children age younger than 18 years. Severe climate change could increase oak pollen season length and associated asthma emergency departments visits in all regions examined in 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090, resulting in millions of dollars in health-care costs in these US regions through to 2090. Moderate versus severe climate change could mitigate much of the additional burden of oak pollen-related asthma emergency department visits. Interpretation Although these results were restricted to one pollen type and one health outcome, these results suggest that aeroallergens pose a substantial US public health burden, that climate change could increase US allergic disease incidence, and that mitigating climate change might have benefits from avoided pollen-related health effects. However, wide confidence intervals and several key methodological limitations constrain the strength of these conclusions. As more studies quantify the effects of climate on pollen and pollen on health, this methodology can be applied to additional pollen types and health outcomes. Funding US Environmental Protection Agency.