Neal Fann

Estimating the National Public Health Burden Associated with Exposure to Ambient PM2.5 and Ozone

Ground-level ozone (O(3)) and fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) are associated with increased risk of mortality. We quantify the burden of modeled 2005 concentrations of O(3) and PM(2.5) on health in the United States. We use the photochemical Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model in conjunction with ambient monitored data to create fused surfaces of summer season average 8-hour ozone and annual mean PM(2.5) levels at a 12 km grid resolution across the continental United States. Employing spatially resolved demographic and concentration data, we assess the spatial and age distribution of air-pollution-related mortality and morbidity. For both PM(2.5) and O(3) we also estimate: the percentage of total deaths due to each pollutant; the reduction in life years and life expectancy; and the deaths avoided according to hypothetical air quality improvements. Using PM(2.5) and O(3) mortality risk coefficients drawn from the long-term American Cancer Society (ACS) cohort study and National Mortality and Morbidity Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS), respectively, we estimate 130,000 PM(2.5) -related deaths and 4,700 ozone-related deaths to result from 2005 air quality levels. Among populations aged 65-99, we estimate nearly 1.1 million life years lost from PM(2.5) exposure and approximately 36,000 life years lost from ozone exposure. Among the 10 most populous counties, the percentage of deaths attributable to PM(2.5) and ozone ranges from 3.5% in San Jose to 10% in Los Angeles. These results show that despite significant improvements in air quality in recent decades, recent levels of PM(2.5) and ozone still pose a nontrivial risk to public health.

The influence of location, source, and emission type in estimates of the human health benefits of reducing a ton of air pollution

The benefit per ton (

The Recent and Future Health Burden of Air Pollution Apportioned Across U.S. Sectors

/ton) of reducing PM2.5 varies by the location of the emission reduction, the type of source emitting the precursor, and the specific precursor controlled. This paper examines how each of these factors influences the magnitude of the

Characterizing the PM2.5-related health benefits of emission reductions for 17 industrial, area and mobile emission sectors across the U.S.

/ton estimate. We employ a reduced-form air quality model to predict changes in ambient PM2.5 resulting from an array of emission control scenarios affecting 12 different combinations of sources emitting carbonaceous particles, NOx, SOx, NH3, and volatile organic compounds. We perform this modeling for each of nine urban areas and one nationwide area. Upon modeling the air quality change, we then divide the total monetized health benefits by the PM2.5 precursor emission reductions to generate

Maximizing Health Benefits and Minimizing Inequality: Incorporating Local-Scale Data in the Design and Evaluation of Air Quality Policies

/ton metrics. The resulting

Health benefits from large-scale ozone reduction in the United States

/ton estimates exhibit the greatest variability across certain precursors and sources such as area source SOx, point source SOx, and mobile source NH3. Certain

Climate change-related temperature impacts on warm season heat mortality: a proof-of-concept methodology using BenMAP.

/ton estimates, including mobile source NOx, exhibit significant variability across urban areas. Reductions in carbonaceous particles generate the largest

The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030

/ton across all locations.

A multi-pollutant, risk-based approach to air quality management: Case study for Detroit

Recent risk assessments have characterized the overall burden of recent PM2.5 and ozone levels on public health, but generally not the variability of these impacts over time or by sector. Using photochemical source apportionment modeling and a health impact function, we attribute PM2.5 and ozone air quality levels, population exposure and health burden to 23 industrial point, area, mobile and international emission sectors in the Continental U.S. in 2005 and 2016. Our modeled policy scenarios account for a suite of emission control requirements affecting many of these sectors. Between these two years, the number of PM2.5 and ozone-related deaths attributable to power plants and mobile sources falls from about 68,000 (90% confidence interval from 48,000 to 87,000) to about 36,000 (90% confidence intervals from 26,000 to 47,000). Area source mortality risk grows slightly between 2005 and 2016, due largely to population growth. Uncertainties relating to the timing and magnitude of the emission reductions may affect the size of these estimates. The detailed sector-level estimates of the size and distribution of mortality and morbidity risk suggest that the air pollution mortality burden has fallen over time but that many sectors continue to pose a substantial risk to human health.

Effect modification of ozone-related mortality risks by temperature in 97 US cities

BACKGROUND Air pollution benefits assessments tend to be time and resource intensive. Reduced-form approaches offer computational efficiency, but may introduce uncertainty. Some reduced-form approaches apply simplified air quality models, which may not capture the complex non-linear chemistry governing the formation of certain pollutants such as PM₂.₅. Other approaches apply the results of sophisticated photochemical modeling, but characterize only a small number of source types in a limited geographic area. METHODS We apply CAMx source apportionment photochemical modeling, coupled with a PC-based human health benefits software program, to develop a suite of PM₂.₅ benefit per ton estimates. These per-ton estimates relate emission changes to health impacts and monetized benefits for 17 sectors across the continental U.S., including Electricity Generating Units (EGU), mobile, area and industrial point sources. RESULTS The benefit per ton of reducing directly emitted PM₂.₅ is about an order of magnitude larger than reducing emissions of PM₂.₅ precursor emissions. On a per-ton basis, the value of reducing directly emitted PM₂.₅ and PM₂.₅ precursors in 2005 ranges between approximately