Allison DenBleyker

Comparison of the MOVES2010a, MOBILE6.2, and EMFAC2007 mobile source emission models with on-road traffic tunnel and remote sensing measurements

The Desert Research Institute conducted an on-road mobile source emission study at a traffic tunnel in Van Nuys, California, in August 2010 to measure fleet-averaged, fuel-based emission factors. The study also included remote sensing device (RSD) measurements by the University of Denver of 13,000 vehicles near the tunnel. The tunnel and RSD fleet-averaged emission factors were compared in blind fashion with the corresponding modeled factors calculated by ENVIRON International Corporation using U.S. Environmental Protection Agencys (EPAs) MOVES2010a (Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator) and MOBILE6.2 mobile source emission models, and California Air Resources Boards (CARBs) EMFAC2007 (EMission FACtors) emission model. With some exceptions, the fleet-averaged tunnel, RSD, and modeled carbon monoxide (CO) and oxide of nitrogen (NOx) emission factors were in reasonable agreement (±25%). The nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) emission factors (specifically the running evaporative emissions) predicted by MOVES were insensitive to ambient temperature as compared with the tunnel measurements and the MOBILE- and EMFAC-predicted emission factors, resulting in underestimation of the measured NMHC/NOx ratios at higher ambient temperatures. Although predicted NMHC/NOx ratios are in good agreement with the measured ratios during cooler sampling periods, the measured NMHC/NOx ratios are 3.1, 1.7, and 1.4 times higher than those predicted by the MOVES, MOBILE, and EMFAC models, respectively, during high-temperature periods. Although the MOVES NOx emission factors were generally higher than the measured factors, most differences were not significant considering the variations in the modeled factors using alternative vehicle operating cycles to represent the driving conditions in the tunnel. The three models predicted large differences in NOx and particle emissions and in the relative contributions of diesel and gasoline vehicles to total NOx and particulate carbon (TC) emissions in the tunnel. Implications: Although advances have been made to mobile source emission models over the past two decades, the evidence that mobile source emissions of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons in urban areas were underestimated by as much as a factor of 2–3 in past inventories underscores the need for on-going verification of emission inventories. Results suggest that there is an overall increase in motor vehicle NMHC emissions on hot days that is not fully accounted for by the emission models. Hot temperatures and concomitant higher ratios of NMHC emissions relative to NOx both contribute to more rapid and efficient formation of ozone. Also, the ability of EPAs MOVES model to simulate varying vehicle operating modes places increased importance on the choice of operating modes to evaluate project-level emissions.

Effects of improved spatial and temporal modeling of on-road vehicle emissions

Numerous emission and air quality modeling studies have suggested the need to accurately characterize the spatial and temporal variations in on-road vehicle emissions. The purpose of this study was to quantify the impact that using detailed traffic activity data has on emission estimates used to model air quality impacts. The on-road vehicle emissions are estimated by multiplying the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by the fleet-average emission factors determined by road link and hour of day. Changes in the fraction of VMT from heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDDVs) can have a significant impact on estimated fleet-average emissions because the emission factors for HDDV nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) are much higher than those for light-duty gas vehicles (LDGVs). Through detailed road link-level on-road vehicle emission modeling, this work investigated two scenarios for better characterizing mobile source emissions: (1) improved spatial and temporal variation of vehicle type fractions, and (2) use of Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES2010) instead of MOBILE6 exhaust emission factors. Emissions were estimated for the Detroit and Atlanta metropolitan areas for summer and winter episodes. The VMT mix scenario demonstrated the importance of better characterizing HDDV activity by time of day, day of week, and road type. More HDDV activity occurs on restricted access road types on weekdays and at nonpeak times, compared to light-duty vehicles, resulting in 5–15% higher NOx and PM emission rates during the weekdays and 15–40% lower rates on weekend days. Use of MOVES2010 exhaust emission factors resulted in increases of more than 50% in NOx and PM for both HDDVs and LDGVs, relative to MOBILE6. Because LDGV PM emissions have been shown to increase with lower temperatures, the most dramatic increase from MOBILE6 to MOVES2010 emission rates occurred for PM2.5 from LDGVs that increased 500% during colder wintertime conditions found in Detroit, the northernmost city modeled. Implications: Air quality model performance relies partly on on-road mobile source emission inventories accurately allocated, both spatially and temporally. This work demonstrates the importance of characterizing the mix of heavy-duty diesel versus light-duty gasoline vehicle activity on an hourly basis on weekdays and weekends by road type. Incorporating detailed activity data increases weekday average NOx and PM emissions 5–15%, with early morning hour emission increases approaching 100%, compared to using one average vehicle activity mix. Application of the methodologies described in this paper will improve the accuracy of on-road emission inventories in the understanding of ozone photochemistry and PM formation.

Trends in on-road vehicle emissions and ambient air quality in Atlanta, Georgia, USA, from the late 1990s through 2009

On-road vehicle emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) during 1995–2009 in the Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area were estimated using the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) model and data from the National Emissions Inventories and the State of Georgia. Statistically significant downward trends (computed using the nonparametric Theil-Sen method) in annual on-road CO, NOx, and VOC emissions of 6.1%, 3.3%, and 6.0% per year, respectively, are noted during the 1995–2009 period despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled. The CO and NOx emission trends are correlated with statistically significant downward trends in ambient air concentrations of CO and NOx in Atlanta ranging from 8.0% to 11.8% per year and from 5.8% to 8.7% per year, respectively, during similar time periods. Weather-adjusted summertime ozone concentrations in Atlanta exhibited a statistically significant declining trend of 2.3% per year during 2001–2009. Although this trend coexists with the declining trends in on-road NOx, VOC, and CO emissions, identifying the cause of the downward trend in ozone is complicated by reductions in multiple precursors from different source sectors. Implications: Large reductions in on-road vehicle emissions of CO and NOx in Atlanta from the late 1990s to 2009, despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled, contributed to a significant improvement in air quality through decreases in ambient air concentrations of CO and NOx during this time period. Emissions reductions in motor vehicles and other source sectors resulted in these improvements and the observed declining trend in ozone concentrations over the past decade. Although these historical trends cannot be extrapolated to the future because pollutant concentration contributions due to on-road vehicle emissions will likely become an increasingly smaller fraction of the atmospheric total, they provide an indication of the benefits of past control measures.

Future year ozone source attribution modeling studies for the eastern and western United States

Three modeling approaches, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) zero-out, the Comprehensive Air quality Model with extensions (CAMx) zero-out, and the CAMx probing tools ozone source apportionment tool (OSAT), were used to project the contributions of various source categories to future year design values for summer 8-hr average ozone concentrations at selected U.S. monitors. The CMAQ and CAMx zero-out or brute-force approaches predicted generally similar contributions for most of the source categories, with some small differences. One of the important findings from this study was that both the CMAQ and CAMx zero-out approaches tended to apportion a larger contribution to the “other” category than the OSAT approach. For the OSAT approach, this category is the difference between the total emissions and the sum of the tracked emissions and consists of non-U.S. emissions. For the zero-out approach, it also includes the effects of nonlinearities in the system because the sum of the sensitivities of all sources is not necessarily equal to the sum of their contributions in a nonperturbed environment. The study illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of source apportionment approaches, such as OSAT, and source sensitivity approaches, such as zero-out. The OSAT approach is suitable for studying source contributions, whereas the zero-out approach is suitable for studying response to emission changes. Future year design values of summer 8-hr average ozone concentrations were projected to decrease at all the selected monitors for all the simulations in each city, except at the downtown Los Angeles monitor. Both the CMAQ and CAMx results showed all modeled locations project attainment in 2018 and 2030 to the current National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) level of 75 ppb, except the selected Los Angeles monitor in 2018 and the selected San Bernardino monitor in 2018 and 2030. Implications: This study illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of three modeling approaches, CMAQ zero-out, CAMx zero-out, and OSAT to project contributions of various source categories to future year design values for summer 8-hr average ozone concentrations at selected U.S. monitors. The OSAT approach is suitable for studying source contributions, whereas the zero-out approach is suitable for studying response to emission changes. Future year design values of summer 8-hr average ozone concentrations were projected to decrease, except at the downtown Los Angeles monitor. Comparing projections with the current NAAQS (75 ppb) show attainment everywhere, except two locations in 2018 and one location in 2030.

Potential Ozone Impacts of Excess NO2 Emissions from Diesel Particulate Filters for On- and Off-Road Diesel Engines

Abstract This study considers potential impacts of increased use of diesel oxidation catalysts (DOCs) and catalyzed diesel particulate filters (DPFs) on ozone formation in the Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) area. There is concern that excess nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions from vehicles equipped with these devices could increase ambient ozone levels. The approach involved developing two scenarios for use of these devices, quantifying excess NO2 emissions in each scenario, and using a photochemical model to estimate the resulting ozone changes. In the “maximum penetration” scenario, DOC/DPF devices in a 2009 fleet of heavy-duty on-road trucks, school buses, and construction equipment were significantly increased by accelerating turnover of these vehicles and equipment to models that would require DOCs/DPFs. In the “realistic” scenario, current fractional usage of these devices was assessed for 2009. For both scenarios, excess NO2 emissions from DOCs/DPFs were estimated using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s MOBILE6 and NONROAD emissions inventory modeling tools. The emissions analyses were used to adjust the DFW photochemical modeling emissions inventories and the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions air quality model was rerun for the DFW area to determine the impact of these two scenarios on ozone formation. The maximum penetration scenario, which showed an overall reduction in oxides of nitrogen (NOx) because of the accelerated turnover of equipment to cleaner models, resulted in a net decrease in daily maximum 8-hr ozone of 4–5 parts per billion (ppb) despite the increase in NO2 emissions. The realistic scenario resulted in a small increase in daily maximum 8-hr ozone of less than 1 ppb for the DFW area. It was concluded that the excess NO2 emissions from DOC/DPF devices result in very small ozone impacts, particularly for the realistic scenario, in the DFW area. There are noticeable decreases in ozone for the maximum penetration scenario because NOx reductions associated with DOC/DPFs (i.e., accelerated fleet turnover) exert more influence than excess NO2.

Source apportionment of emissions from light-duty gasoline vehicles and other sources in the United States for ozone and particulate matter.

ABSTRACT Federal Tier 3 motor vehicle emission and fuel sulfur standards have been promulgated in the United States to help attain air quality standards for ozone and PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm). The authors modeled a standard similar to Tier 3 (a hypothetical nationwide implementation of the California Low Emission Vehicle [LEV] III standards) and prior Tier 2 standards for on-road gasoline-fueled light-duty vehicles (gLDVs) to assess incremental air quality benefits in the United States (U.S.) and the relative contributions of gLDVs and other major source categories to ozone and PM2.5 in 2030. Strengthening Tier 2 to a Tier 3-like (LEV III) standard reduces the summertime monthly mean of daily maximum 8-hr average (MDA8) ozone in the eastern U.S. by up to 1.5 ppb (or 2%) and the maximum MDA8 ozone by up to 3.4 ppb (or 3%). Reducing gasoline sulfur content from 30 to 10 ppm is responsible for up to 0.3 ppb of the improvement in the monthly mean ozone and up to 0.8 ppb of the improvement in maximum ozone. Across four major urban areas—Atlanta, Detroit, Philadelphia, and St. Louis—gLDV contributions range from 5% to 9% and 3% to 6% of the summertime mean MDA8 ozone under Tier 2 and Tier 3, respectively, and from 7% to 11% and 3% to 7% of the maximum MDA8 ozone under Tier 2 and Tier 3, respectively. Monthly mean 24-hr PM2.5 decreases by up to 0.5 μg/m3 (or 3%) in the eastern U.S. from Tier 2 to Tier 3, with about 0.1 μg/m3 of the reduction due to the lower gasoline sulfur content. At the four urban areas under the Tier 3 program, gLDV emissions contribute 3.4–5.0% and 1.7–2.4% of the winter and summer mean 24-hr PM2.5, respectively, and 3.8–4.6% and 1.5–2.0% of the mean 24-hr PM2.5 on days with elevated PM2.5 in winter and summer, respectively. Implications: Following U.S. Tier 3 emissions and fuel sulfur standards for gasoline-fueled passenger cars and light trucks, these vehicles are expected to contribute less than 6% of the summertime mean daily maximum 8-hr ozone and less than 7% and 4% of the winter and summer mean 24-hr PM2.5 in the eastern U.S. in 2030. On days with elevated ozone or PM2.5 at four major urban areas, these vehicles contribute less than 7% of ozone and less than 5% of PM2.5, with sources outside North America and U.S. area source emissions constituting some of the main contributors to ozone and PM2.5, respectively.