Alon Kalay

Investor sophistication and disclosure clienteles

This paper explores the idea of disclosure clienteles. Disclosure clienteles refer to the ability of different types of disclosure activities to differentially benefit investors with varying levels of sophistication. Disclosure clienteles exist because variation in investor sophistication affects investors’ ability to utilize disclosed information and thus their preferences for distinct disclosure activities. I use cross-sectional variation in inefficient exercise activity in the options market to identify variation in sophistication (e.g., investors’ attention, knowledge, and expertise) and then present empirical evidence consistent with disclosure clienteles. The results show that sophisticated investors concentrate their trading in firms that regularly issue earnings guidance. This relation is stronger before RegFD, when sophisticated investors’ preferences for forecasting firms are predicted to be greater. Alternatively, less sophisticated investors are more prevalent in firms with increased levels of press-dissemination and superior investor relations (e.g., better access to information on the corporate website). These results suggest investors’ demand for disclosure is partially driven by their ability to use disclosed information.

Uncertainty and Sectoral Shifts: The Interaction Between Firm-Level and Aggregate-Level Shocks, and Macroeconomic Activity

This study predicts and finds that the interaction of firm-level and aggregate-level shocks explains a significant portion of shocks to macroeconomic activity. Specifically, we hypothesize that the relation between uncertainty and economic growth is most pronounced when both firm-level and aggregate-level uncertainty are high simultaneously. Similarly, we hypothesize that aggregate performance affects unemployment most when both firm-level dispersion is high and aggregate performance is low, based on the sectoral shift theory. Our hypotheses and empirical results show that the interactive effect of firm-level and aggregate-level shocks are larger than the sum of the individual effects. This paper was accepted by Mary Barth, accounting.

Macroeconomic Activity Under Uncertainty: How Firm-Level and Aggregate-Level Uncertainties Interact

This study predicts and finds that the interaction of firm-level and aggregate-level shocks explains a significant portion of shocks to macroeconomic activity. Specifically, we hypothesize that the relation between uncertainty and economic growth is most pronounced when both firm-level and aggregate level uncertainty are high simultaneously. Similarly, we hypothesize that aggregate performance affects unemployment most when both firm-level dispersion is high and aggregate performance is low, based on the sectoral shift theory. Our hypotheses and empirical results show that the interactive effect of firm-level and aggregate-level shocks are larger than the sum of the individual effects.

Industry Sensitivity to External Forces and Firm-Level Disclosure

This paper examines whether analysts have an industry-level information advantage over managers when forecasting a firm’s earnings. We argue that such an advantage is more likely to exist for firms that operate in industries that are characterized by more uncertain operating environments due to industry-level shocks. We find that for firms in such industries, analysts provide more accurate forecasts than managers. We further find that managers of firms in such industries provide fewer and less precise (e.g., range versus point estimates) forecasts, and that these results are more pronounced when analyst following and institutional ownership are higher. These findings suggest that analysts have an informational advantage over managers with respect to industry-level information for industries with certain characteristics.

The Market Reaction to Stock Split Announcements: Earnings Information After All

We re-examine whether the abnormal returns around stock split announcements can be explained by an information hypothesis. Our evidence establishes a link between the abnormal returns and future earnings growth. Analysts revise earnings forecasts by 2.2-2.5% around split announcements, and this revision is significantly larger than that for matched firms. We further show that the earnings information in a split likely arises from the fact that splitting firms experience less mean reversion in their earnings growth relative to matched firms. Consistent with an earnings information hypothesis, the analyst revision and the abnormal returns are stronger for firms with more opaque information environments, and the cross-sectional variation in analyst revisions is related to the variation in abnormal returns.