Alvaro Calzadilla

Climate change impacts on global agriculture

Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land will change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity provide a false appreciation of the nature of changes likely to occur. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. No matter which SRES scenario is preferred, we find that the expected losses in welfare are significant. These losses are slightly larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that national welfare is influenced both by regional climate change and climate-induced changes in competitiveness.

Climate Change and Extreme Events: An Assessment of Economic Implications

We use a general equilibrium model of the world economy, and a regional economic growth model, to assess the economic implications of vulnerability from extreme meteorological events, induced by the climate change. In particular, we first consider the impact of climate change on ENSO and NAO oceanic oscillations and, subsequently, the implied variation on regional expected damages. We found that expected damages from extreme events are increasing in the United States, Europe and Russia, and Russia, and decreasing in energy exporting countries. Two economic implications are taken into account: (1) short-term impacts, due to changes in the demand structure, generated by higher/lower precautionary saving, and (2) variations in regional economic growth paths. We found that indirect short-term effects (variations in savings due to higher or lower likelihood of natural disasters) can have an impact on regional economics, whose order of magnitude is comparable to the one of direct damages. On the other hand, we highlight that higher vulnerability from extreme events translates into higher volatility in the economic growth path, and vice versa.

Undernutrition in Bolivia: Geography and Culture Matter

The prevalence of health problems and malnutrition in Bolivia is shockingly high, even relative to other developing countries. This study analyzes the association between a bidimensional measure of child health -composed of height and weight z-scores -and a set of child nutrition determinants related to physical and cultural contexts, the mother`s characteristics, household assets and access to public services. The paper seeks to identify the main determinants of child health and to measure the impact of each factor related to the bidimensional indicator. A sequential strategy is adopted in order to estimate a two-equation linear model with correlated error terms. A major finding is that geographical and cultural variables are significant determinants of nutritional status, and that the role of the mother`s anthropometrical characteristics is substantial. This study uses data from a Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) on over 3,000 children.

Review of CGE models of water issues

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models offer a method of studying the role of water resources and water scarcity in the context of international trade. This chapter reviews the literature on water-related CGE modeling by providing a survey that focuses on the implications of different modeling techniques of water resource. We differentiate between models that explicitly model water as a factor of production and those that model water as an implicit factor of production. Within the category of studies that model water explicitly we further differentiate between models that assume a high degree of substitution between water and primary factors and those that assume a low degree of substitution. We also differentiate between regional and global models. Further, we provide information on the type of analysis the model was used for.