Claudia Ringler

Integrated economic-hydrologic water modeling at the basin scale: the Maipo river basin

Increasing competition for water across sectors increases the importance of the river basin as the appropriate unit of analysis to address the challenges facing water resources management; and modeling at this scale can provide essential information for policymakers in their resource allocation decisions. This paper introduces an integrated economic-hydrologic modeling framework that accounts for the interactions between water allocation, farmer input choice, agricultural productivity, nonagricultural water demand, and resource degradation in order to estimate the social and economic gains from improvement in the allocation and efficiency of water use. The model is applied to the Maipo River Basin in Chile. Economic benefits to water use are evaluated for different demand management instruments, including markets in tradable water rights, based on production and benefit functions with respect to water for the agricultural and urban-industrial sectors.

Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options

As the global population grows and incomes in poor countries rise, so too, will the demand for food, placing additional pressure on sustainable food production. Climate change adds a further challenge, as changes in temperature and precipitation threaten agricultural productivity and the capacity to feed the worlds population. This study assesses how serious the danger to food security might be and suggests some steps policymakers can take to remedy the situation.

Impact on food security and rural development of transferring water out of agriculture

Abstract The competition for limited water resources between agriculture and more highly valued domestic and industrial water uses is rapidly increasing and will likely require the transfer of water out of agriculture. This paper reviews and synthesizes the available evidence of the effects of water transfers from agricultural to urban and industrial areas on local and regional rural economies; and analyzes the possible impacts of a large reallocation on global food supply and demand. It concludes with a discussion of the potential for water policy reform and demand management to minimize adverse impacts when water is reallocated from agriculture. It is argued that comprehensive reforms are required to mitigate the potentially adverse impacts of water transfers for local communities and to sustain crop yield and output growth to meet rising food demands at the global level. Key policy reforms include the establishment of secure water rights to users; the decentralization and privatization of water management functions to appropriate levels; the use of incentives including pricing reform, especially in urban contexts, and markets in tradable property rights; and the introduction of appropriate water-saving technologies.

Global projections for root and tuber crops to the year 2020

Abstract Many of the developing worlds poorest farmers and food insecure people are highly dependent on root and tuber crops as a contributing, if not the principal, source of food, nutrition, and cash income. Hence, an improved understanding of the production, utilization, trade, and estimated future economic importance of these crops has potentially far-reaching implications for investments in agricultural research at both the international and, perhaps even more importantly, national levels. Previous projections for the evolution of global supply, demand, and trade into the 21st century, however, have focused on grains, oilseeds, and livestock. This paper presents global projections of supply, demand, and trade for root and tuber crops to the year 2020. According to the baseline scenario, roots and tubers will decline in relative economic importance only marginally vis-a-vis the other major food and feed crops over the next three decades. According to an alternative, high demand and production growth scenario, the economic importance of roots and tubers versus the same commodities will increase slightly. The results of this scenario contrast with earlier projections that predicted a decline in importance for roots and tubers. Policymakers should take cognizance of and act on the growth prospects for these crops. In the past, root and tuber crops have often been overlooked in policy deliberations precisely because their potential was considered more limited than actual growth rates clearly indicate, or that current projections foresee.

Climate change perception and adaptation of agro-pastoral communities in Kenya

Data on agro-pastoralists’ perceptions of climate change and adaptation options were collected from agro-pastoral communities in 7 rural districts of Kenya. Key adaptation strategies for livestock producers include mixing crop and livestock production, destocking, diversifying livestock feeds, changing animal breeds and moving animals to other sites. Desired adaptation options include introducing new breeds and increasing herd size. Additionally, the main barriers to adaptation identified include lack of credit or savings followed by lack of access to land and inputs. Farmers adaptation among livestock producers is also hindered by the absence of markets, particularly for the purchase of additional animal or new breeds or species.

Can agriculture support climate change adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation and rural livelihoods? insights from Kenya

Changes in the agriculture sector are essential to mitigate and adapt to climate change, meet growing food demands, and improve the livelihoods of poor smallholder producers. What agricultural strategies are needed to meet these challenges? To what extent are there synergies among these strategies? This paper examines these issues for smallholder producers in Kenya across several agroecological zones. Several practices emerge as triple wins, supporting climate adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation, and profitability goals. In particular, integrated soil fertility management and improved livestock feeding are shown to provide multiple benefits across all agroecological zones examined. Triple wins of other agricultural practices are limited to specific agroecological zones. Irrigation and soil and water conservation, for example, are essential for adaptation, mitigation, and profitability in arid areas. The results suggest that agricultural investments targeted toward these triple-win strategies will have the greatest payoff in terms of increased resilience of farm and pastoralist households and global climate change mitigation. To reap the benefits of triple-win strategies will require that policymakers, researchers, and practitioners move away from isolated approaches focused on either adaptation or mitigation or rural income generation toward a more holistic assessment of joint strategies as well as their tradeoffs and synergies.

Yellow River basin: living with scarcity

The Yellow River basin is a key food production centre of global importance facing rapidly growing water scarcity. Water availability for agriculture in the basin is threatened by rapid growth in the demand for industrial and urban water, the need to flush sediment from the rivers lower reaches, environmental demands and growing water pollution. Climate change is already evident in the basin with long-term declines in river runoff, higher temperatures, and increasing frequency and intensity of drought. The Chinese government has exhausted most options for improving water supply. The challenge will be to switch to improved water demand management, which is hampered by existing governance structures, and lack of integrated agriculture and water resource policies.

Water Policy Analysis for the Mekong River Basin

Abstract Rapid agricultural and economic development in mainland Southeast Asia during the 1990s has fueled the demand for water resources in the Mekong River Basin. An aggregate, integrated economic-hydrologic model for the basin is developed that allows for the analysis of water allocation and use under alternative policy scenarios. The model describes the water supply situation along the river system and the water demands by the various water-using sectors. Water benefit functions are developed for the major water uses subject to a series of physical and system control constraints. Water supply and demand are balanced based on the economic objective of maximizing net benefits to water use. Results from the analytical framework indicate that although competition for Mekong water still appears to be low, there are substantial tradeoffs between in-stream and off-stream water uses. Further development and refinement of such an integrated framework of analysis can be a critical step to overcome some of the obstacles to effective management and joint cooperation in the Mekong River Basin. It could also facilitate the ongoing negotiations of detailed water allocation rules in the lower basin and thus contribute to the reasonable and equitable utilization of Mekong River waters, as envisioned in the 1995 Mekong Agreement.

Sustainability in the water-energy-food nexus

Today we are more than ever convinced that security in food, energy and water is interwoven with human, economic and environmental sustainability, and that this interplay is strengthening under growing natural resource scarcity and climate change. This recognition suggests that policy making and decision making for sustainability could benefit from a holistic nexus approach that reduces trade-offs and builds synergies across sectors, and thus helps reduce costs and increase benefits for humans and nature, as compared to independent approaches to the management of water, energy and food, without compromising the resource basis on which humanity relies. In the past, research and policy work related to the nexus has looked at the interactions between water and food or water and energy, but given political and institutional realities there has been a reluctance to bring forward a broader systemic perspective to capture the dependencies across multiple sectors and resources. At the same time, the cost to the environment of neglecting these linkages has increased. The players in the nexus approach are public, private and civil society at local and broader human scales. Recognizing the urgent need to focus on sustainability in the water–energy–food nexus (WEF nexus) together with tools to analyze and approaches to govern the linkages at different scales, the Global Water System Project, the United Nations Environment Programme, the Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik, the Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, and the CGIAR Research Program on Water Land and Ecosystems organized an international conference, Sustainability in the WaterEnergy-Food Nexus, in Bonn, Germany, in 2014. The conference addressed sustainability in the WEF nexus as a key research-for-action initiative, and included an international policy consultation process to inform, influence and catalyze action of policy makers, nongovernmental organizations, the private sector, educators and researchers towards a nexus approach that both draws on and supports the environment. The conference brought together available information, identified knowledge and action gaps, shared lessons on viable instruments and approaches, facilitated networks, and contributed to consensus on priorities for appropriate investment and action by different actors and stakeholders for moving towards action on the WEF nexus. This special issue is an outcome of that conference, and contains significant pieces of work on the WEF nexus that were presented at the conference focusing on relevant tools, solutions and governance at different scales. Together, the articles in this special issue

Droughts in Pakistan: a spatiotemporal variability analysis using the Standardized Precipitation Index

We investigated the spatiotemporal variability of drought incidence in Pakistan during 1960–2007 by calculating Standardized Precipitation Index fields for 3-, 6- and 12-month scales using gridded precipitation data. Principal component analysis revealed that droughts are wide-spread and often occur simultaneously over large areas. Furthermore, spectral analysis identified a 16-year drought recurrence period. Three such drought-intensive periods were identified: the late 1960s to early 1970s; the middle 1980s; and the late 1990s to early 2000s. Hence, drought patterns need to be integrated into long-term water planning as well as emergency preparedness.