Amanda Honeycutt

Projection of Diabetic Retinopathy and Other Major Eye Diseases Among People With Diabetes Mellitus: United States, 2005-2050

OBJECTIVES To estimate the number of people with diabetic retinopathy (DR), vision-threatening DR (VTDR), glaucoma, and cataracts among Americans 40 years or older with diagnosed diabetes mellitus for the years 2005-2050. METHODS Using published prevalence data of DR, VTDR, glaucoma, and cataracts and data from the National Health Interview Survey and the US Census Bureau, we projected the number of Americans with diabetes with these eye conditions. RESULTS The number of Americans 40 years or older with DR and VTDR will triple in 2050, from 5.5 million in 2005 to 16.0 million for DR and from 1.2 million in 2005 to 3.4 million for VTDR. Increases among those 65 years or older will be more pronounced (2.5 million to 9.9 million for DR and 0.5 million to 1.9 million for VTDR). The number of cataract cases among whites and blacks 40 years or older with diabetes will likely increase 235% by 2050, and the number of glaucoma cases among Hispanics with diabetes 65 years or older will increase 12-fold. CONCLUSION Future increases in the number of Americans with diabetes will likely lead to significant increases in the number with DR, glaucoma, and cataracts. Our projections may help policy makers anticipate future demands for health care resources and possibly guide the development of targeted interventions. CLINICAL RELEVANCE Efforts to prevent diabetes and to optimally manage diabetes and its complications are needed.

Forecasting Age-Related Macular Degeneration Through the Year 2050 The Potential Impact of New Treatments

OBJECTIVE To forecast age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and its consequences in the United States through the year 2050 with different treatment scenarios. METHODS We simulated cases of early AMD, choroidal neovascularization (CNV), geographic atrophy (GA), and AMD-attributable visual impairment and blindness with 5 universal treatment scenarios: (1) no treatment; (2) focal laser and photodynamic therapy (PDT) for CNV; (3) vitamin prophylaxis at early-AMD incidence with focal laser/PDT for CNV; (4) no vitamin prophylaxis followed by focal laser treatment for extra and juxtafoveal CNV and anti-vascular endothelial growth factor treatment; and (5) vitamin prophylaxis at early-AMD incidence followed by CNV treatment, as in scenario 4. RESULTS Cases of early AMD increased from 9.1 million in 2010 to 17.8 million in 2050 across all scenarios. In non-vitamin-receiving scenarios, cases of CNV and GA increased from 1.7 million in 2010 to 3.8 million in 2050 (25% lower in vitamin-receiving scenarios). Cases of visual impairment and blindness increased from 620 000 in 2010 to 1.6 million in 2050 when given no treatment and were 2.4%, 22.0%, 16.9%, and 34.5% lower in scenarios 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. CONCLUSION Prevalence of AMD will increase substantially by 2050, but the use of new therapies can mitigate its effects.

Outcomes and costs of community health worker interventions: A systematic review

Objectives:We conducted a systematic review on outcomes and costs of community health worker (CHW) interventions. CHWs are increasingly expected to improve health outcomes cost-effectively for the underserved. Research Design:We searched Medline, Cochrane Collaboration resources, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature for studies conducted in the United States and published in English from 1980 through November 2008. We dually reviewed abstracts, full-text articles, data abstractions, quality ratings, and strength of evidence grades and resolved disagreements by consensus. Results:We included 53 studies on outcomes of CHW interventions and 6 on cost or cost-effectiveness. For outcomes, limited evidence (5 studies) suggests that CHW interventions can improve participant knowledge compared with alternative approaches or no intervention. We found mixed evidence for participant behavior change (22 studies) and health outcomes (27 studies). Some studies suggested that CHW interventions can result in greater improvements in participant behavior and health outcomes compared with various alternatives, but other studies suggested that CHW interventions provide no statistically different benefits than alternatives. We found low or moderate strength of evidence suggesting that CHWs can increase appropriate health care utilization for some interventions (30 studies). Six studies with economic information yielded insufficient data to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of CHW interventions relative to other interventions. Conclusions:CHWs can improve outcomes for underserved populations for some health conditions. The effectiveness of CHWs in many health care areas requires further research that addresses the methodologic limitations of prior studies and that contributes to translating research into practice.

A dynamic Markov model for forecasting diabetes prevalence in the United States through 2050

This study develops forecasts of the number of people with diagnosed diabetes and diagnosed diabetes prevalence in the United States through the year 2050. A Markov modeling framework is used to generate forecasts by age, race and ethnicity, and sex. The model forecasts the number of individuals in each of three states (diagnosed with diabetes, not diagnosed with diabetes, and death) in each year using inputs of estimated diagnosed diabetes prevalence and incidence; the relative risk of mortality from diabetes compared with no diabetes; and U.S. Census Bureau estimates of current population, live births, net migration, and the mortality rate of the general population. The projected number of people with diagnosed diabetes rises from 12.0 million in 2000 to 39.0 million in 2050, implying an increase in diagnosed diabetes prevalence from 4.4% in 2000 to 9.7% in 2050.

Medical Costs of CKD in the Medicare Population

Estimates of the medical costs associated with different stages of CKD are needed to assess the economic benefits of interventions that slow the progression of kidney disease. We combined laboratory data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey with expenditure data from Medicare claims to estimate the Medicare programs annual costs that were attributable to CKD stage 1-4. The Medicare costs for persons who have stage 1 kidney disease were not significantly different from zero. Per person annual Medicare expenses attributable to CKD were

Technology-Enhanced Program for Child Disruptive Behavior Disorders: Development and Pilot Randomized Control Trial

1700 for stage 2,

Comparing Cost‐of‐Illness Estimates from Alternative Approaches: An Application to Diabetes

3500 for stage 3, and

The Costs and Impacts of Testing for Hepatitis C Virus Antibody in Public STD Clinics

12,700 for stage 4, adjusted to 2010 dollars. Our findings suggest that the medical costs attributable to CKD are substantial among Medicare beneficiaries, even during the early stages; moreover, costs increase as disease severity worsens. These cost estimates may facilitate the assessment of the net economic benefits of interventions that prevent or slow the progression of CKD.

Impact of the CDC’s Section 317 Immunization Grants Program Funding on Childhood Vaccination Coverage

Early onset disruptive behavior disorders are overrepresented in low-income families; yet these families are less likely to engage in behavioral parent training (BPT) than other groups. This project aimed to develop and pilot test a technology-enhanced version of one evidence-based BPT program, Helping the Noncompliant Child (HNC). The aim was to increase engagement of low-income families and, in turn, child behavior outcomes, with potential cost-savings associated with greater treatment efficiency. Low-income families of 3- to 8-year-old children with clinically significant disruptive behaviors were randomized to and completed standard HNC (n = 8) or Technology-Enhanced HNC (TE-HNC; n = 7). On average, caregivers were 37 years old; 87% were female, and 80% worked at least part-time. More than half (53%) of the youth were boys; the average age of the sample was 5.67 years. All families received the standard HNC program; however, TE-HNC also included the following smartphone enhancements: (a) skills video series, (b) brief daily surveys, (c) text message reminders, (d) video recording home practice, and (e) midweek video calls. TE-HNC yielded larger effect sizes than HNC for all engagement outcomes. Both groups yielded clinically significant improvements in disruptive behavior; however, findings suggest that the greater program engagement associated with TE-HNC boosted child treatment outcome. Further evidence for the boost afforded by the technology is revealed in family responses to postassessment interviews. Finally, cost analysis suggests that TE-HNC families also required fewer sessions than HNC families to complete the program, an efficiency that did not compromise family satisfaction. TE-HNC shows promise as an innovative approach to engaging low-income families in BPT with potential cost-savings and, therefore, merits further investigation on a larger scale.

Allocating HIV prevention resources: A tool for state and local decision making

OBJECTIVE To compare disease cost estimates from two commonly used approaches. DATA SOURCE Pooled Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data for 1998-2003. STUDY DESIGN We compared regression-based (RB) and attributable fraction (AF) approaches for estimating disease-attributable costs with an application to diabetes. The RB approach used results from econometric models of disease costs, while the AF approach used epidemiologic formulas for diabetes-attributable fractions combined with the total costs for seven conditions that result from diabetes. DATA EXTRACTION We used SAS version 9.1 to create a dataset that combined data from six consecutive years of MEPS. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS The RB approach produced higher estimates of diabetes-attributable medical spending (