Ammar Anees Malik

Modular ABM development for improved dissemination and training

Agent-based models (ABMs) have become an important tool for advancing scientific understanding in a variety of disciplines and more specifically have contributed gains to natural resource management in recent decades. However, a key challenge to their utility is the lack of convergence upon a common set of assumptions for representing key processes (such as agent decision structure), with the outcome that published ABM tools are rarely (if ever) used beyond their original development team. While a number of ABM frameworks are publicly available for use, the continued development of models from scratch is a signal of the continuing difficulty in capturing sufficient modeling flexibility in a single package. In this study we examine ABM sharing by comparing co-citation networks from several well-known ABM frameworks to those used in the land-use change modeling community. We then outline a different publication paradigm for the ABM community that could improve the sharing of model structure and help move toward convergence on a common set of tools and assumptions. Gaps in the reuse and publication of agent-based modeling primitives are exposed.Coauthorship networks of statistical versus agent models differ substantially.Examples of agent-based modeling primitives and options for research are provided.

The Imperfect Substitutes Model in South Asia: Pakistan-India Trade Liberalization in the Negative List

In a large number of circumstances, trade policy modelers turn to partial equilibrium modeling in an imperfect substitutes framework. This paper develops a formal representation of this imperfect substitutes model and applies it to trade liberalization within the negative list between Pakistan and India following Pakistan’s decision to grant MFN status to India. It provides estimates for ranges of output and welfare effects for a number of sectors of interest. It sets these results within the history of Pakistan-India trade and the political economy of the negative list.

The Pakistan Floods 2010: Public Policy Lessons

The 2010 monsoon floods were perhaps the most devastating natural disaster in the countrys history. With over 20 million people affected and one-fifth of the country under water, the government of Pakistan and the international humanitarian community themselves under tremendous pressure to orchestrate an effective responses. The challenging task of coordinating responses from numerous stakeholders and making effective policies was jointly done by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) as well as the UN-led humanitarian responses system. Being closely associated with this process, the author offers insights from a public policy perspective. In particular, the paper deals with stakeholder interests within the government and outside and presents dilemmas of prioritization and resource allocation. The paper is intended to be a policy brief for those interested in disaster response and more generally the subject of public policy.

The Imperfect Substitutes Model in South Asia

In large number of circumstances, trade policy modellers turn to partial equilibrium modelling in an imperfect substitutes framework. This article develops a formal representation of this imperfect substitutes model and applies it to trade liberalization within the negative list between Pakistan and India following Pakistan’s decision to grant most favoured nation (MFN) status to India. It provides estimates for ranges of output and welfare effects for a number of sectors of interest. It sets these results within the history of Pakistan–India trade and the political economy of the negative list.

Can Pakistan have creative cities? An agent based modeling approach with preliminary application to Karachi

The form and function of many cities are increasingly marred by congestion, sprawl and socioeconomic segregation, preventing them from experiencing expected productivity gains associated with urbanization. We operationalize these insights by creating a stylized agent-based model of a theoretical city, inspired by social complexity theory and the new urban literature.

The Renewed Hope of Multilateralism in South Asia: Applying the MFN Principle to Pakistan–India Trade

The multilateral trading principle of nondiscrimination and the World Trade Organization commitment of most-favoured nation (MFN) treatment have been missing in the Pakistan–India trading relationship. This practitioner commentary addresses recent moves toward multilateral principles between these two countries, namely Pakistans decision to grant MFN status to India. It considers the political economy of Pakistans ‘negative list’ in addressing ‘sensitive sectors’ in Pakistan and provides partial equilibrium estimates of the domestic output, consumer welfare and net welfare impacts in Pakistan of liberalizing trade in this negative list.

Regional Economic Analysis of Houston

This paper analyzes Houston Metropolitan Regions economic performance during the great recession from a regional economic and public policy perspective. Using labor and economic output data in shift-share analysis, our analysis focuses on sub-regional and sectoral components of this region’s much discussed success story. Through a series of questions relating to both pre- and post-recession time periods, the paper explores recent changes to the regions economic structure from a socioeconomic perspective. The paper derives policy lessons for other metropolitan regions around the country, in particular those that face similar sets of challenges as Houston.

Foreign Aid and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Fresh Perspective

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between foreign aid and economic growth in the context of Pakistan by proposing two key methods. Both of these are complimentary, with the field experiment establishing the existence of an aid delivery problem and the in-depth case studies further expanding on some of the key findings. Section 1 provides a broad situational overview by situating the aid-growth question in the context of Pakistan, contextualizing it within the ongoing theoretical debates on the subject. Section 2 solidifies these assertions by going deeper into literature to arrive at the possible avenues for future research using fresh methods. Section 3 and 4 then propose a field experiment and an in-depth case study respectively, both intended to expose the underlying problems with aid delivery systems in Pakistan. Finally, section 5 offers brief concluding thoughts to reassert the importance of understanding the aid-growth conundrum and to take rectifying measures today.

Cultural Impacts on Disaster Preparedness: The Pakistan Floods of 2010

Disasters of varying magnitude have been a consistent feature of human history. But despite modern mans intellectual and technologically progress, the threats posed by disasters are as potent today as they have ever been. This research proposal builds on the authors personal experience during the 2010 monsoon floods in Pakistan, linking cultural systems with attitudes towards disaster preparedness. The variations in worldviews of vulnerable populations, in particular their beliefs towards mans relationship with nature impacts disaster risk reduction strategies within communities and at the macro level. The proposed research will answer the following question: How does the local culture in Pakistan impact disaster preparedness at the household, community and national policy level? The answer will require in-depth explorations of socio-cultural norms and economic compulsions of vulnerable populations through a combination of in-depth interviews and survey based fieldwork in rural Pakistan.