Andrew Reid Bell

Heterogeneous Preferences and the Effects of Incentives in Promoting Conservation Agriculture in Malawi

Malawi faces significant challenges in meeting its future food security needs because there is little scope for increasing production by simply expanding the area under cultivation. One potential alternative for sustainably intensifying agricultural production is by means of conservation agriculture (CA), which improves soil quality through a suite of farming practices that reduce soil disturbance, increase soil cover via retained crop residues, and increase crop diversification. We use discrete choice experiments to study farmers’ preferences for these different CA practices and assess willingness to adopt CA. Our results indicate that, despite many benefits, some farmers are not willing to adopt CA without receiving subsidies, and current farm-level practices significantly influence willingness to adopt the full CA package. Providing subsidies, however, can create perverse incentives. Subsidies may increase the adoption of intercropping and residue mulching, but adoption of these practices may crowd out adoption of zero tillage, leading to partial compliance. Further, exposure to various risks such as flooding and insect infestations often constrains adoption. Rather than designing subsidies or voucher programs to increase CA adoption, it may be important to tailor insurance policies to address the new risks brought about by CA adoption.

Modular ABM development for improved dissemination and training

Agent-based models (ABMs) have become an important tool for advancing scientific understanding in a variety of disciplines and more specifically have contributed gains to natural resource management in recent decades. However, a key challenge to their utility is the lack of convergence upon a common set of assumptions for representing key processes (such as agent decision structure), with the outcome that published ABM tools are rarely (if ever) used beyond their original development team. While a number of ABM frameworks are publicly available for use, the continued development of models from scratch is a signal of the continuing difficulty in capturing sufficient modeling flexibility in a single package. In this study we examine ABM sharing by comparing co-citation networks from several well-known ABM frameworks to those used in the land-use change modeling community. We then outline a different publication paradigm for the ABM community that could improve the sharing of model structure and help move toward convergence on a common set of tools and assumptions. Gaps in the reuse and publication of agent-based modeling primitives are exposed.Coauthorship networks of statistical versus agent models differ substantially.Examples of agent-based modeling primitives and options for research are provided.

Opportunities for improved promotion of ecosystem services in agriculture under the Water-Energy-Food Nexus

In this study, we focus on water quality as a vehicle to illustrate the role that the water, energy, and food (WEF) Nexus perspective may have in promoting ecosystem services in agriculture. The mediation of water quality by terrestrial systems is a key ecosystem service for a range of actors (municipalities, fishers, industries, and energy providers) and is reshaped radically by agricultural activity. To address these impacts, many programs exist to promote improved land-use practices in agriculture; however, where these practices incur a cost or other burden to the farmer, adoption can be low unless some form of incentive is provided (as in a payment for ecosystem services (PES) program). Provision of such incentives can be a challenge to sustain in the long term, if there is not a clear beneficiary or other actor willing to provide them. Successfully closing the loop between impacts and incentives often requires identifying a measurable and valuable service with a clear central beneficiary that is impacted by the summative effects of the diffuse agricultural practices across the landscape. Drawing on cases from our own research, we demonstrate how the WEF Nexus perspective—by integrating non-point-source agricultural problems under well-defined energy issues—can highlight central beneficiaries of improved agricultural practice, where none may have existed otherwise.

Environmental Licensing and Land Aggregation: An Agent-Based Approach to Understanding Ranching and Land Use in Rural Rondônia

Agricultural development and climate change will be two of the major stressors on the Amazon natural-human system in the decades to come. Environmental licensing for rural properties is being implemented in several states in the Brazilian Amazon with the goal of restoring forests in agricultural landscapes and mediating the impacts of these stressors. This study presents an agent-based model of ranching and land exchange, informs it with empirical results from social research in the Ji-Parana River Basin, Rondonia, Brazil, and investigates the social, economic, and environmental outcomes that can be expected as a result of environmental licensing in the context of climate change. Model results informed by these data suggest that although an environmental licensing scheme with monitoring and enforcement may increase the level of forested land in ranching landscapes, it may do so at the expense of the small producer. To the extent that effective monitoring and enforcement exist, a focus on larger holdings will help to mediate this negative social impact. These results suggest that a middle ground can be found in cases where current environmental goals conflict with legacies of past colonization and resource-use regimes.

Highly Optimized Tolerant (HOT) Farms in Rondônia: Productivity and Farm Size, and Implications for Environmental Licensing

This paper operationalizes the concept of highly optimized tolerance (HOT) for the case of smallholder agriculture in Rondonia, Brazil. It seeks to understand how characteristics of family farms shift as a function of property size, arguing that as production intensifies, properties move closer to a HOT state. In this state, resources are committed to maintaining robustness against expected disturbances, such as shifts in yields or crop prices, making property more vulnerable to other unexpected disturbances, such as shifts in input prices or availability. The shifts in production, labor, and costs that occur across scale in the Ji-Parana River Basin in Rondonia were measured using a survey instrument on a sample of farmers in the basin. Study results show decreasing production intensity with increasing property size in the sample, coupled with decreasing contracted and family labor use intensity, as well as decreased income diversification and off-farm labor. Farms smaller than 60 ha in the sample differed markedly in production and cost structure from those that were larger. For these smaller properties, meeting the requirements of Rondonia’s new environmental licensing program (LAPRO) may lead to an increase in the sale of land parcels to cover debts and a speeding up of land consolidation in the region.

What role can information play in improved equity in Pakistan’s irrigation system?: evidence from an experimental game in Punjab

The Indus Basin Irrigation System suffers significant inequity in access to surface water across its millions of users. Information, i.e., monitoring and reporting of water availability, may be of value in improving conditions across the basin, and we investigated this via an experimental game of water distribution in Punjab, Pakistan. We found evidence that flow information allowed players to take more effective action to target overuse, and that overall activities that might bring social disapproval were reduced with information. However, we did not find any overall improvement in equity across the system, suggesting that information on its own might not be sufficient to lead to better water distribution among irrigators.

Smart subsidies for catchment conservation in Malawi

Conservation agriculture (CA) is a management paradigm in which soil is covered outside of cropping seasons, minimally disturbed, and recharged with nitrogen-fixing legumes. Finding effective ways to encourage CA is a centuries-old problem playing out acutely today in Sub-Saharan Africa. To better understand this issue, we have collected data on rural livelihoods and CA adoption during a two-year intervention in southern Malawi. The intervention evaluated rates of CA adoption under two different structures of payment and three levels of monitoring. The dataset includes a baseline and endline survey covering 1,900 households, along with surveys conducted with participants opting into the intervention. Baseline and endline questions included modules on farm-level inputs and production at the plot-crop level; plot characteristics; household composition and assets; savings, loans, and other sources of income; neighborhood characteristics; and perceptions regarding CA. Registration questionnaires in the intervention included detailed assessments of recent production in plots being registered to the intervention, and basic information for all other plots; and basic information on household structure and assets.

Informing decisions in agent-based models A mobile update

A range of tools exists for collecting data to inform decision processes in agent-based models (ABMs), each appropriate to modeling processes at particular scales and each with particular strengths and limitations. The issue of which tools are appropriate to which goals has been discussed in the literature at several points over the last decade, but has not been updated to reflect the way in which the cost of stakeholder engagement will shift in the near future as smartphones and mobile technologies penetrate rural areas across the world along the same path as mobile phones before them. I present the challenge of validating ABMs as closing a series of gaps that characterize the separation between a real-world decision and its modeled counterpart, and illustrate the potential for mobile phones and other information and communication technologies (ICTs) to transform the modes with which ABMs are empirically informed. I use a series of gaps to attribute the difference between real and modeled decisions.This approach helps identify contributions that mobile and smartphones can make to agent-based modeling.Empirical toolkit for ABMs should be draw more upon mobile ICTs.

Water Security and Irrigation Investment: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Rural Pakistan

ABSTRACT This study examines the relationship between water security features and irrigation investment using data from a field survey with a choice experiment conducted in rural Pakistan. Our results generally support Besley’s framework on the link between property right and investment incentive with an application to irrigation, although not all aspects of water security features can significantly affect farmers’ investment in irrigation. Investment increases significantly with groundwater share, but there is insufficient evidence to support that farmers’ investment is significantly and positively affected by surface water reliability. Farmers who own land or who are located further down the watercourse tend to invest more than their peers do. Existing conditions on surface water reliability significantly affect this relationship. Overall, groundwater use dominates the decision-making of investment and the role of surface water source in securing irrigation water is relatively weak from a farmer’s perspective.

Payments discourage coordination in ecosystem services provision: evidence from behavioral experiments in Southeast Asia

The contribution of synthetic pesticides to closing yield gaps around the world is undeniable; however, their use is also a classic double-edged sword. Beyond the well-recognized social costs (e.g., pollution to soil and water, and health effects both on consumers and other species) there are also private costs on farmers beyond the direct costs of inputs, associated with elevated risks of both acute and chronic damage to farmers health, and with the destruction of populations of beneficial organisms. Managing agricultural land use to enhance natural pest control services (also called mobile agent-based ecosystem services or MABES) holds promise to reduce this growing reliance on pesticides, though it too carries costs. In particular, uncertainty in crop yield due to pest damages, as well as the need to coordinate pesticide use with neighboring farms, can be important obstacles to establishing the longer-term public good of natural pest regulation. Current thinking on promoting ecosystem services suggests that payments or other economic incentives are a good fit for the promotion of public good ecosystem services such as MABES. We undertook a framed field experiment to examine the role of subsidies for non-crop habitat in improving insect-based ecosystem services in two separate samples in Southeast Asia—Cambodia and Vietnam. Our central finding is that these two contexts are not poised equally to benefit from incentives promoting MABES, and in fact may be left worse off by payments schemes. As the study and practice of payments for ecosystem services programs grows, this finding provides an important qualifier on recent theory supporting the use of payments to promote public good ecosystem services—where the nature of the coordination problem is complex and nonlinear, farm systems can be made worse off by being encouraged to attempt it.