An Phillips

Decline in the AIDS and death rates in the EuroSIDA study: an observational study

BACKGROUND Since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), little is known about whether changes in HIV-1 mortality and morbidity rates have been sustained. We aimed to assess possible changes in these rates across Europe. METHODS We analysed data for 9803 patients in 70 European HIV centres including ones in Israel and Argentina. Incidence rates of AIDS or death were calculated for overall and most recent CD4 count in 6-monthly periods and in three treatment eras (pre-HAART, 1994-1995; early-HAART, 1996-1997; and late-HAART, 1998-2002). FINDINGS The incidence of AIDS or death fell after September, 1998, by 8% per 6-month period (rate ratio 0.92, 95% CI 0.88-0.95, p<0.0001). When AIDS and death were analysed separately, the incidence of all deaths during the late-HAART era was significantly lower than that during the early-HAART era in patients whose latest CD4 count was 20 cells/microL or less (0.43, 0.35-0.53, p<0.0001), but at higher CD4 counts, did not differ between early-HAART and late-HAART. Incidence of AIDS was about 50% lower in late-HAART than in early-HAART, irrespective of latest CD4 count (p<0.0001). In multivariate Coxs models, with early-HAART as the reference, there was an increased risk of AIDS (relative hazard 1.39; 95% CI 1.16-1.67, p=0.0004) and all deaths (1.29; 1.08-1.56, p=0.0065) in the pre-HAART era, and a reduced risk of AIDS (0.62; 0.50-0.77, p<0.0001) and all deaths (0.66; 0.53-0.82, p=0.0002) in the late-HAART era. INTERPRETATION The initial drop in mortality and morbidity after the introduction of HAART has been sustained. Potential long-term adverse effects associated with HAART have not altered its effectiveness in treating AIDS.

Cardio- and cerebrovascular events in HIV-infected persons

Objective: Recent results from the D:A:D Study indicated that the incidence of myocardial infarction (MI) increased by 26% per year of exposure to combination antiretroviral treatment (CART). The present study was performed to investigate whether this risk was similar when including other cardio- and cerebro-vascular disease events (CCVE). Design: D:A:D is an international collaboration of 11 cohorts, following 23 468 HIV-infected patients prospectively at 188 clinics in 21 countries situated in Europe, USA and Australia. Methods: The end-point was the occurrence of a first CCVE during prospective follow-up, defined as the first of: acute MI, invasive cardiovascular procedures, stroke, or death from other cardiovascular disease. Relative rates (RR) for CCVE from Poisson regression models and 95% confidence intervals (CI) are reported. All models are adjusted for other risk factors for CCVE, including age, gender, ethnicity, family history, body mass index, and smoking status as well as cohort and HIV transmission group. Results: Over 36 145 person-years of follow-up, 207 patients experienced at least one CCVE (23.7% fatal). The first event was MI in 126 patients, invasive cardiovascular procedure in 39 patients, stroke in 38 patients, and death from other cardiovascular disease in four patients. The incidence of first CCVE was 5.7 per 1000 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.0–6.5] and increased with longer exposure to CART (RR per year of exposure, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.14–1.38; P < 0.0001). Conclusion: CART increases the risk of CCVD, and this increase is comparable with how CART affects the risk of MI. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that atherosclerosis is a side-effect of CART.

Response to combination antiretroviral therapy: variation by age.

Objective:To provide information on responses to combination antiretroviral therapy in children, adolescents and older HIV-infected persons. Design and setting:Multicohort collaboration of 33 European cohorts. Subjects:Forty-nine thousand nine hundred and twenty-one antiretroviral-naive individuals starting combination antiretroviral therapy from 1998 to 2006. Outcome measures:Time from combination antiretroviral therapy initiation to HIV RNA less than 50 copies/ml (virological response), CD4 increase of more than 100 cells/μl (immunological response) and new AIDS/death were analysed using survival methods. Ten age strata were chosen: less than 2, 2–5, 6–12, 13–17, 18–29, 30–39 (reference group), 40–49, 50–54, 55–59 and 60 years or older; those aged 6 years or more were included in multivariable analyses. Results:The four youngest age groups had 223, 184, 219 and 201 individuals and the three oldest age groups had 2693, 1656 and 1613 individuals. Precombination antiretroviral therapy CD4 cell counts were highest in young children and declined with age. By 12 months, 53.7% (95% confidence interval: 53.2–54.1%) and 59.2% (58.7–59.6%) had experienced a virological and immunological response. The probability of virological response was lower in those aged 6–12 (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.87) and 13–17 (0.78) years, but was higher in those aged 50–54 (1.24), 55–59 (1.24) and at least 60 (1.18) years. The probability of immunological response was higher in children and younger adults and reduced in those 60 years or older. Those aged 55–59 and 60 years or older had poorer clinical outcomes after adjusting for the latest CD4 cell count. Conclusion:Better virological responses but poorer immunological responses in older individuals, together with low precombination antiretroviral therapy CD4 cell counts, may place this group at increased clinical risk. The poorer virological responses in children may increase the likelihood of emergence of resistance.

Rate of AIDS diseases or death in HIV-infected antiretroviral therapy-naive individuals with high CD4 cell count.

Objective:To assess the absolute rate of AIDS and death in antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive patients with a high CD4 cell count. Such information would be helpful in the design of a trial investigating early initiation of ART. Design:Analysis of data from an ongoing HIV cohort study. Methods:The rate of (severe) AIDS or death and death alone was evaluated in ART-naive patients according to the current CD4 cell count, focusing on CD4 cell counts ≥ 350 cells/μl among patients in the UK CHIC Study. Results:In a total of 30 313 person-years of follow-up, there were 1557 AIDS or death events. The rate of AIDS or death in persons with most recent CD4 cell count 350–499, 500–649 and > 650 cells/μl was 2.49, 1.54 and 0.96 per 100 person-years, respectively. The rate ratio for those with CD4 cell count 500–649 cells/μl compared with those with CD4 cell count ≥ 650 cells/μl was 1.55 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.11–2.17; P = 0.01]. In a Poisson regression model based on person years with CD4 cell count ≥ 350 cells/μl, there was a strong effect of CD4 cell count on rate of AIDS or death (rate ratio, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.76–0.93; P = 0.001), independent of viral load and age. Conclusions:The trend of decreasing rate of AIDS and death with higher CD4 cell count is present throughout the CD4 cell count ≥ 350 cells/μl range in ART-naive people.

Baseline cardiovascular risk in the INSIGHT Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment (START) trial

The Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment (START) trial has recruited antiretroviral‐naïve individuals with high CD4 cell counts from all regions of the world. We describe the distribution of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, overall and by geographical region, at study baseline.

Screening for chronic comorbid diseases in people with HIV: the need for a strategic approach

Among people living with HIV, the proportion of deaths attributed to chronic noninfectious comorbid diseases has increased over the past 15 years. This is partly a result of increased longevity in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), and also because HIV infection is related, causally or otherwise, to several chronic conditions. These comorbidities include conditions that are strongly associated with modifiable risk factors, such as cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, and renal and bone diseases, and increasingly management guidelines for HIV recommend risk evaluation for these conditions. The uptake of these screening approaches is often limited by the resources required for their application, and hence the management of risk reduction in most HIV‐infected populations falls below a reasonable standard. The situation is compounded by the fact that few risk calculators have been adjusted for specific use in HIV infection. There is substantial overlap of risk factors for the four common comorbid diseases listed above that are especially relevant in HIV infection, and this offers an opportunity to develop a simple screening approach that encompasses the key risk factors for lifestyle‐related chronic disease in people with HIV infection. This would identify those patients who require more in‐depth investigation, and facilitate a stepwise approach to targeted management. Such a tool could improve communication between patient and clinician. A significant proportion of people with HIV are sufficiently engaged with their care to participate in health promotion and take the lead in using patient‐centric screening measures. Health‐based social networking offers a mechanism for dissemination of such a tool and is able to embed educational messages and support within the process.

The rate of CD4 decline as a determinant of progression to AIDS independent of the most recent CD4 count

The data of two cohort studies of HIV-infected individuals were used to examine whether the rate of CD4 decline is a determinant of HIV progression, independent of the most recent CD4 count. Time from seroconversion to clinical AIDS was the main outcome measure. Rates of CD4 decline were estimated using the ordinary least squares regression method. AIDS incidences were compared in individuals who had previously experienced either a steeper or a less steep rate of CD4 decline. Cox proportional hazards model including a time-dependent covariate for the rate of CD4 decline was performed. The rate of prior CD4 decline was significantly associated with the risk of developing AIDS independently from the most recent CD4 count, with a 2% increase in hazard of AIDS (P < 0.01) for a difference of 10 cells/mm3 in the estimated yearly drop in CD4 count. This finding gives scientific credit to the belief that individuals with a prior steeper CD4 decline consistently have a higher subsequent risk of developing AIDS than those with a less steep prior decline.

Calendar Time Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of Triple-Class Virologic Failure in Antiretroviral Drug-Experienced People With HIV in Europe

Background: Despite the increasing success of antiretroviral therapy (ART), virologic failure of the 3 original classes [triple-class virologic failure, (TCVF)] still develops in a small minority of patients who started therapy in the triple combination ART era. Trends in the incidence and prevalence of TCVF over calendar time have not been fully characterised in recent years. Methods: Calendar time trends in the incidence and prevalence of TCVF from 2000 to 2009 were assessed in patients who started ART from January 1, 1998, and were followed within the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE). Results: Of 91,764 patients followed for a median (interquartile range) of 4.1 (2.0–7.1) years, 2722 (3.0%) developed TCVF. The incidence of TCVF increased from 3.9 per 1000 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.7 to 4.1] in 2000 to 8.8 per 1000 person-years of follow-up (95% CI: 8.5 to 9.0) in 2005, but then declined to 5.8 per 1000 person-years of follow-up (95% CI: 5.6 to 6.1) by 2009. The prevalence of TCVF was 0.3% (95% CI: 0.27% to 0.42%) at December 31, 2000, and then increased to 2.4% (95% CI: 2.24% to 2.50%) by the end of 2005. However, since 2005, TCVF prevalence seems to have stabilized and has remained below 3%. Conclusions: The prevalence of TCVF in people who started ART after 1998 has stabilized since around 2005, which most likely results from the decline in incidence of TCVF from this date. The introduction of improved regimens and better overall HIV care is likely to have contributed to these trends. Despite this progress, calendar trends should continue to be monitored in the long term.

Higher rates of triple-class virological failure in perinatally HIV-infected teenagers compared with heterosexually infected young adults in Europe

The aim of the study was to determine the time to, and risk factors for, triple‐class virological failure (TCVF) across age groups for children and adolescents with perinatally acquired HIV infection and older adolescents and adults with heterosexually acquired HIV infection.

Age, time living with diagnosed HIV infection, and self-rated health.

An increasing proportion of people living with HIV are older adults, who may require specialized care. Adverse physical and psychological effects of HIV infection may be greatest among older people or those who have lived longer with HIV.