Ana Maria Hermeto

Desenvolvimento regional, hierarquia urbana e condição de migração individual no Brasil entre 1980 e 2010

The level of regional development is affected by the migration process, and the subsequent migration flows are affected by the growth rates of the localities in a process of circular and cumulative causation. The aim of this paper is to identify the contribution of urban hierarchy to the individual decision to migrate in Brazil between 1980 and 2010. To achieve this goal, we analyze data from demographic census for the period, provided by ibge. Data analysis shows that migration patterns in Brazil are extremely related with the levels of urban development. Moreover, individual migration is associated with the advantages of urban centers, especially if they are located in medium sized cities. New trends begin to emerge and are related to the economic expansion of new destiny regions, with the decline of job opportunities in the most developed region of the country, and with return migration.

Ciclos econômicos e a composição da pobreza no Brasil: uma análise para as décadas recentes

This work assesses the impact of macroeconomic cycles on poverty composition in the Brazilian economy (1987 – 2005). Specifically, it intends to find answers to three questions: first, who are the demographic groups that are most harmed in the recessive cycles; second, if economic growth in itself sufficient to benefit the groups most associated with poverty; third, which are the macroeconomic policies most associated with poverty and with its alleviation. The study used an interaction of micro data form PNAD with macroeconomic data from sources such as IPEA-DATA, Brazilian Central Bank and Secretariat of the Federal Revenue of Brazil. Using logistical regressions with pooled micro-data banks, the work found two main results. First, recession and economic downturns, are more harmful to people with less schooling. Second, tax policy significantly affects poverty: firstly the primary surplus is associated with lower levels of well-being of the population and, on the other hand, the welfare expenditure of the Union may be used to alleviate poverty during the critical stages of the cycles.

Dynamics of the Formal and Informal Labour in Brazil: occupational and earnings mobility

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to discuss recent dynamics of the Brazilian labour market, addressing occupational mobility patterns, especially the transitions between formal and informal labour, and verifying the earnings mobility resulting from these transitions, separately by gender. Design/methodology/approach The changes in the mobility patterns are analysed by performing an estimation of the transition probabilities between different occupational status between 2002 and 2012, using a Multinomial Logit Model and the microdata from the Monthly Employment Survey (PME). The earnings mobility is analysed by using Quantile Regressions. Findings The results indicate a high degree of mobility from unemployment to formal employment in the period, but suggest the persistence of mobility patterns. Women are better off in the period, but only among individuals with better attributes. The earnings mobility results, for women and men, suggest an increase in valuation of the formal labour relatively to infor...

Moeda e crescimento: Uma análise para os municípios brasileiros (2000 a 2010)

O objetivo do presente trabalho e analisar as relacoes entre o desempenho regional e variaveis financeiras para os municipios brasileiros, tendo como pano de fundo os conceitos da teoria pos-keynesiana. Com base na tecnica de estatistica multivariada de clusters, foi possivel agrupar os municipios de acordo com as suas similaridades de desenvolvimento socioeconomico. Como resultado, obtiveram-se tres clusters de municipios: Centrais, Intermediarios e Perifericos. Empregando a tecnica de dados em painel, avaliaram-se as implicacoes das variaveis financeiras e seus efeitos sobre o nivel de atividade dos diferentes clusters de municipios. Os resultados para o periodo de 2000 a 2010 mostraram evidencias a favor da hipotese de existencia de efeitos diferenciados da moeda no sentido pos-keynesiano sobre o nivel de atividade dos municipios brasileiros. Nao obstante, essas evidencias corroboram os resultados encontrados por uma gama de estudos aplicados para a questao regional do Brasil.

Fiscal consolidation in developed and emerging economies

The debate regarding fiscal policy has given support to the formulation of an economic policy based on control of indebtedness and in persecution of public savings, acting as important support for the economic growth. This paper presents evidence that counter acts this theory of expansionary austerity. A set of panel data regressions is estimated – through Driscoll & Kraay’s, FGLS, panel corrected standard errors, and SUR estimators and the causality test approach proposed by Konya (2006) – in search of robust inference related to the main determinants that encompasses the fiscal framework. Our conclusion is that the empirical evidence - using a set of 20 developed economies and other of 24 emerging economies - suggests that identical economic policies for different countries might conduce to results that are opposite to the desired outcome. Notwithstanding the adverse effects associated to explosive debt path, the search for “fiscal space” should be determined essentially by a pro-growth agenda. This is particularly important for the emerging economies facing the transition path challenges.