André Herrero

Importance of Mapping Design Earthquakes: Insights for the Southern Apennines, Italy

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is currently the soundest basis for the rational evaluation of ground-motion hazard for site-specific engineering design and assessment purposes. An increasing number of building codes worldwide ac- knowledge the uniform hazard spectra as the reference to determine design actions on structures and to select input ground motions for seismic structural analysis. This is the case, for example, in Italy where the new seismic code also requires the seismic input for nonlinear dynamic analysis to be selected on the basis of dominating events, for example, identified via disaggregation of seismic hazard. In the present study, the design earthquakes expressed in terms of representative magnitude (M), distance (R), and e were investigated for a wide region in the southern Apennines, Italy. To this aim, the hazards corresponding to peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 1 sec with a return period of 475 yr were disaggregated. For each of the disaggregation variables the shape of the joint and marginal probability density functions were studied. The first two modes expressed by M, R, and e were extracted and mapped for the study area. The results shown provide additional information, in terms of source and ground-motion parameters, to be used along with the standard hazard maps to better select the design earthquakes. The analyses also allow us to assess how var- ious frequency ranges of the design spectrum are differently contributed by seismic sources in the study area.

Influence of Focal Mechanism in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

An extension of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is proposed to introduce a priori information about seismic source parameters. In particular, faulting style is taken into account with a theoretical corrective coefficient applied to the attenuation law. The validity of this correction is assessed through a comparison with observed data, attenuation law predictions corrected and not corrected, and the results of attenuation laws containing faulting style parameters. The probabilistic nature of the analysis is maintained, introducing into the classical hazard formulation a 2D probability density function describing the most probable focal mechanisms associated with each seismic source zone. This new expression may also be used in the framework of deaggregation analysis. Thus, the design earthquake resulting from the deaggregation is characterized by a focal mechanism. An application to a site located in the Southern Apennines, Italy, is shown. The result of the analysis emphasizes the importance of strike-slip events in the seismic hazard context, compared with normal faulting seismic activity in this region.

The Spectral Source Model: A Tool for Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment

Seismic-hazard assessment at small scales requires the computation of realistic broad-band accelerograms near the sources. Methods that use only natural records are often limited because of the limited data set. Among recently developed methods for source modelling, the spectral-source model, based on the k−2 dislocation distribution seems particularly promising as it enables computation of synthetics for any source-receiver distance and directivity configuration. The spectral model takes into account important source characteristics, such as stress drop and directivity effects predicting acceptable high-frequency levels, whatever the station location (Bernard et al., 1996b). Firstly, some tests to explain the directivity properties of the model are presented, followed by the main results of a deterministic study carried out for the 1992 Erzincan earthquake, Turkey. Finally, results of a probabilistic study in the Moyenne-Durance region (France) are used to demonstrate the ability of this method to produce seismic-hazard maps and spectra linked to a specific return period.