André L. Acosta

Desafios atuais da modelagem preditiva de distribuição de espécies

Predictive modelling has been used to analyze species geographic distribution through extrapolation of environmental characteristics of known occurrence areas. Interest in this kind of modelling is derived from the need for rapid and well-grounded answers to the threats faced by species due to habitat loss, exotic species invasion, climate changes, and others. This article provides an overall view of recent advances in modelling and aims to encourage the discussion and application of this method that can help with basic biological knowledge acquisition as well as with public policies aimed at their conservation.

Safeguarding Ecosystem Services: A Methodological Framework to Buffer the Joint Effect of Habitat Configuration and Climate Change.

Ecosystem services provided by mobile agents are increasingly threatened by the loss and modification of natural habitats and by climate change, risking the maintenance of biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and human welfare. Research oriented towards a better understanding of the joint effects of land use and climate change over the provision of specific ecosystem services is therefore essential to safeguard such services. Here we propose a methodological framework, which integrates species distribution forecasts and graph theory to identify key conservation areas, which if protected or restored could improve habitat connectivity and safeguard ecosystem services. We applied the proposed framework to the provision of pollination services by a tropical stingless bee (Melipona quadrifasciata), a key pollinator of native flora from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and important agricultural crops. Based on the current distribution of this bee and that of the plant species used to feed and nest, we projected the joint distribution of bees and plants in the future, considering a moderate climate change scenario (following IPPC). We then used this information, the bee’s flight range, and the current mapping of Atlantic Forest remnants to infer habitat suitability and quantify local and regional habitat connectivity for 2030, 2050 and 2080. Our results revealed north to south and coastal to inland shifts in the pollinator distribution during the next 70 years. Current and future connectivity maps unraveled the most important corridors, which if protected or restored, could facilitate the dispersal and establishment of bees during distribution shifts. Our results also suggest that coffee plantations from eastern São Paulo and southern Minas Gerais States could suffer a pollinator deficit in the future, whereas pollination services seem to be secured in southern Brazil. Landowners and governmental agencies could use this information to implement new land use schemes. Overall, our proposed methodological framework could help design novel conservational and agricultural practices that can be crucial to conserve ecosystem services by buffering the joint effect of habitat configuration and climate change.

Native and Non-Native Supergeneralist Bee Species Have Different Effects on Plant-Bee Networks

Supergeneralists, defined as species that interact with multiple groups of species in ecological networks, can act as important connectors of otherwise disconnected species subsets. In Brazil, there are two supergeneralist bees: the honeybee Apis mellifera, a non-native species, and Trigona spinipes, a native stingless bee. We compared the role of both species and the effect of geographic and local factors on networks by addressing three questions: 1) Do both species have similar abundance and interaction patterns (degree and strength) in plant-bee networks? 2) Are both species equally influential to the network structure (nestedness, connectance, and plant and bee niche overlap)? 3) How are these species affected by geographic (altitude, temperature, precipitation) and local (natural vs. disturbed habitat) factors? We analyzed 21 plant-bee weighted interaction networks, encompassing most of the main biomes in Brazil. We found no significant difference between both species in abundance, in the number of plant species with which each bee species interacts (degree), and in the sum of their dependencies (strength). Structural equation models revealed the effect of A. mellifera and T. spinipes, respectively, on the interaction network pattern (nestedness) and in the similarity in bee’s interactive partners (bee niche overlap). It is most likely that the recent invasion of A. mellifera resulted in its rapid settlement inside the core of species that retain the largest number of interactions, resulting in a strong influence on nestedness. However, the long-term interaction between native T. spinipes and other bees most likely has a more direct effect on their interactive behavior. Moreover, temperature negatively affected A. mellifera bees, whereas disturbed habitats positively affected T. spinipes. Conversely, precipitation showed no effect. Being positively (T. spinipes) or indifferently (A. mellifera) affected by disturbed habitats makes these species prone to pollinate plant species in these areas, which are potentially poor in pollinators.

Queens become workers: pesticides alter caste differentiation in bees

Bees are important for the world biodiversity and economy because they provide key pollination services in forests and crops. However, pesticide use in crops has adversely affected (decreased) queen production because of increased mortality among larvae. Here, we demonstrated that in vitro-reared queens of a neotropical social bee species (Plebeia droryana) also showed high larval mortality after exposure to an organophosphate pesticide (chlorpyrifos) via larval food. Moreover, most of the surviving larvae that were destined to develop into queens became workers more likely because they ate less food than expected without pesticide skewing thus caste differentiation in this bee species. This adverse effect has not been previously reported for any other social insects, such as honeybees or bumblebees. Queens are essential for breeding and colony growth. Therefore, if our data are applicable to other pantropical social bee species across the globe, it is likely that these bees are at a serious risk of failure to form new colonies.

Beekeeping practices and geographic distance, not land use, drive gene flow across tropical bees

Across the globe, wild bees are threatened by ongoing natural habitat loss, risking the maintenance of plant biodiversity and agricultural production. Despite the ecological and economic importance of wild bees and the fact that several species are now managed for pollination services worldwide, little is known about how land use and beekeeping practices jointly influence gene flow. Using stingless bees as a model system, containing wild and managed species that are presumed to be particularly susceptible to habitat degradation, here we examine the main drivers of tropical bee gene flow. We employ a novel landscape genetic approach to analyse data from 135 populations of 17 stingless bee species distributed across diverse tropical biomes within the Americas. Our work has important methodological implications, as we illustrate how a maximum‐likelihood approach can be applied in a meta‐analysis framework to account for multiple factors, and weight estimates by sample size. In contrast to previously held beliefs, gene flow was not related to body size or deforestation, and isolation by geographic distance (IBD) was significantly affected by management, with managed species exhibiting a weaker IBD than wild ones. Our study thus reveals the critical importance of beekeeping practices in shaping the patterns of genetic differentiation across bee species. Additionally, our results show that many stingless bee species maintain high gene flow across heterogeneous landscapes. We suggest that future efforts to preserve wild tropical bees should focus on regulating beekeeping practices to maintain natural gene flow and enhancing pollinator‐friendly habitats, prioritizing species showing a limited dispersal ability.

Climate Warming May Threaten Reproductive Diapause of a Highly Eusocial Bee

ABSTRACT Climate changes are predicted to affect the diapause of many insect species around the world adversely. In this context, bees are of interest due to their pollination services. In southern Brazil, the highly eusocial bee species Plebeia droryana (Friese) (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Meliponini) exhibits reproductive diapause in response to the regions rigorous winters. That diapause is characterized by a temporary interruption in brood cell construction by nurse bees and egg-laying by the queen, regardless of other internal tasks underway in the nests. In this study, we evaluated whether P. droryana enter diapause under experimental conditions. P. droryana colonies were kept in a germination chamber, and the temperature was progressively reduced from 20°C over a period of a few weeks until diapause was detected. Additionally, we also estimated the environmental conditions in the actual geographic range occupied by P. droryana and modeled it for predicted changes in climate up to the year 2080. Our findings indicate that P. droryana enter diapause between 10 and 8°C. We also found that the current minimum winter temperature (10.1°C, median) in the distributional range of P. droryana will probably rise (13.4°C, median). Thus, if our experimental data are somewhat accurate, ∼36% of the southern Brazilian P. droryana population may be active during the expected milder winter months in 2080. In this scenario, there may be a larger demand for pollen and nectar for that bee species. Greater conservation efforts will be required to preserve P. droryana populations and keep them viable in the coming decades.

Protecting a managed bee pollinator against climate change: strategies for an area with extreme climatic conditions and socioeconomic vulnerability

In the semiarid region of Northeastern Brazil, populations of native bees can be jeopardized by future climate change. The present study aims to analyze the impact of climate change on a native stingless bee (Melipona subnitida Ducke). This species is a locally important pollinator of wild and crop plants, also exploited for honey production by regional beekeepers. Using species distributional modeling, we assessed the effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of M. subnitida. We found a potential shift in future areas where species can find climatically suitable habitats toward the edges of the current pollinator distribution with a consequent central disconnection, which can threaten species dispersal and gene flow. We propose to reconnect the remaining suitable areas through conservation and restoration programs based on the distribution of the plant species that are used by this bee as source of pollen and nectar and propose also, other strategies that aim to increase the welfare of local people

Parallelization in Predicting Species Distribution

Species distribution models allow the development of strategies and policies for the species sustainability. However, the process of predicting species distribution analyzes and produces a considerable amount of data, which takes hours or days to compute. The predicting process, including modeling and projection stages, requires efficient computational tools and good strategies of parallelization allowing the decrease of execution time. This paper presents a parallel solution for predicting species distribution through the parallelization of the BIOMOD2 platform. The parallel application can be run on a computer with multiple cores or a cluster. Besides decreasing the execution time, it aims at reducing the idleness of the resources. It performs an optimization on the use of the processing resources. The experiments demonstrate that it is possible to reduce the predicting process from 106 minutes to 10 minutes by using 20 cores of a cluster composed by five nodes.