Andrea Minetti

Violence and mortality in West Darfur, Sudan (2003-04): epidemiological evidence from four surveys.

BACKGROUND Violence in Darfur, Sudan, has rendered more than one million people internally displaced. An epidemiological study of the effect of armed incursions on mortality in Darfur was needed to provide a basis for appropriate assistance to internally displaced people. METHODS Between April and June, 2004, we did retrospective cluster surveys among 215?400 internally displaced people in four sites of West Darfur (Zalingei, Murnei, Niertiti, El Geneina). Mortality recall periods covered both the pre-displacement and post-displacement periods in Zalingei, Murnei, and Niertiti, but not in El Geneina. Heads of households provided dates, causes, and places of deaths, and described the family structure. FINDINGS Before arrival at displacement sites, mortality rates (expressed as deaths per 10?000 per day), were 5.9 (95% CI 2.2-14.9) in Zalingei, 9.5 (6.4-14.0) in Murnei, and 7.3 (3.2-15.7) in Niertiti. Violence caused 68-93% of these deaths. People who were killed were mostly adult men (relative risk 29.1-117.9 compared with children younger than 15 years), but included women and children. Most households fled because of direct village attacks. In camps, mortality rates fell but remained above the emergency benchmark, with a peak of 5.6 in El Geneina. Violence persisted even after displacement. Age and sex pyramids of surviving populations were skewed, with a deficit in men. INTERPRETATION This study, which was done in a difficult setting, provides epidemiological evidence of this conflicts effect on civilians, confirming the serious nature of the crisis, and reinforcing findings from other war contexts.

A large-scale distribution of milk-based fortified spreads: evidence for a new approach in regions with high burden of acute malnutrition.

Background There are 146 million underweight children in the developing world, which contribute to up to half of the worlds child deaths. In high burden regions for malnutrition, the treatment of individual children is limited by available resources. Here, we evaluate a large-scale distribution of a nutritional supplement on the prevention of wasting. Methods and Findings A new ready-to-use food (RUF) was developed as a diet supplement for children under three. The intervention consisted of six monthly distributions of RUF during the 2007 hunger gap in a district of Maradi region, Niger, for approximately 60,000 children (length: 60–85 cm). At each distribution, all children over 65 cm had their Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) recorded. Admission trends for severe wasting (WFH<70% NCHS) in Maradi, 2002–2005 show an increase every year during the hunger gap. In contrast, in 2007, throughout the period of the distribution, the incidence of severe acute malnutrition (MUAC<110 mm) remained at extremely low levels. Comparison of year-over-year admissions to the therapeutic feeding program shows that the 2007 blanket distribution had essentially the same flattening effect on the seasonal rise in admissions as the 2006 individualized treatment of almost 60,000 children moderately wasted. Conclusions These results demonstrate the potential for distribution of fortified spreads to reduce the incidence of severe wasting in large population of children 6–36 months of age. Although further information is needed on the cost-effectiveness of such distributions, these results highlight the importance of re-evaluating current nutritional strategies and international recommendations for high burden areas of childhood malnutrition.

Lessons and Challenges for Measles Control from Unexpected Large Outbreak, Malawi

Supplementary immunization activities are crucial to reduce the number of susceptible children.

Nutrition outcomes of HIV-infected malnourished adults treated with ready-to-use therapeutic food in sub-Saharan Africa: a longitudinal study

BackgroundAmong people living with HIV/AIDS, nutritional support is increasingly recognized as a critical part of the essential package of care, especially for patients in sub-Saharan Africa. The objectives of the study were to evaluate the outcomes of HIV-positive malnourished adults treated with ready-to-use therapeutic food and to identify factors associated with nutrition programme failure.MethodsWe present results from a retrospective cohort analysis of patients aged 15 years or older with a body mass index of less than 17 kg/m2 enrolled in three HIV/AIDS care programmes in Africa between March 2006 and August 2008. Factors associated with nutrition programme failure (patients discharged uncured after six or more months of nutritional care, defaulting from nutritional care, remaining in nutritional care for six or more months, or dead) were investigated using multiple logistic regression.ResultsOverall, 1340 of 8685 (15.4%) HIV-positive adults were enrolled in the nutrition programme. At admission, median body mass index was 15.8 kg/m2 (IQR 14.9-16.4) and 12% received combination antiretroviral therapy (ART). After a median of four months of follow up (IQR 2.2-6.1), 524 of 1106 (47.4%) patients were considered cured. An overall total of 531 of 1106 (48.0%) patients failed nutrition therapy, 132 (11.9%) of whom died and 250 (22.6%) defaulted from care. Men (OR = 1.5, 95% CI 1.2-2.0), patients with severe malnutrition at nutrition programme enrolment (OR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.7-2.8), and those never started on ART (OR = 4.5, 95% CI 2.7-7.7 for those eligible; OR = 1.6, 95% CI 1.0-2.5 for those ineligible for ART at enrolment) were at increased risk of nutrition programme failure. Diagnosed tuberculosis at nutrition programme admission or during follow up, and presence of diarrhoeal disease or extensive candidiasis at admission, were unrelated to nutrition programme failure.ConclusionsConcomitant administration of ART and ready-to-use therapeutic food increases the chances of nutritional recovery in these high-risk patients. While adequate nutrition is necessary to treat malnourished HIV patients, development of improved strategies for the management of severely malnourished patients with HIV/AIDS are urgently needed.

Mortality Risk among Children Admitted in a Large-Scale Nutritional Program in Niger, 2006

Background In 2006, the Médecins sans Frontières nutritional program in the region of Maradi (Niger) included 68,001 children 6–59 months of age with either moderate or severe malnutrition, according to the NCHS reference (weight-for-height<80% of the NCHS median, and/or mid-upper arm circumference<110 mm for children taller than 65 cm and/or presence of bipedal edema). Our objective was to identify baseline risk factors for death among children diagnosed with severe malnutrition using the newly introduced WHO growth standards. As the release of WHO growth standards changed the definition of severe malnutrition, which now includes many children formerly identified as moderately malnourished with the NCHS reference, studying this new category of children is crucial. Methodology Program monitoring data were collected from the medical records of all children admitted in the program. Data included age, sex, height, weight, MUAC, clinical signs on admission including edema, and type of discharge (recovery, death, and default/loss to follow up). Additional data included results of a malaria rapid diagnostic test due to Plasmodium falciparum (Paracheck®) and whether the child was a resident of the region of Maradi or came from bordering Nigeria to seek treatment. Multivariate logistic regression was performed on a subset of 27,687 children meeting the new WHO growth standards criteria for severe malnutrition (weight-for-height<−3 Z score, mid-upper arm circumference<110 mm for children taller than 65 cm or presence of bipedal edema). We explored two different models: one with only basic anthropometric data and a second model that included perfunctory clinical signs. Principal Findings In the first model including only weight, height, sex and presence of edema, the risk factors retained were the weight/height1.84 ratio (OR: 5,774; 95% CI: [2,284; 14,594]) and presence of edema (7.51 [5.12; 11.0]). A second model, taking into account supplementary data from perfunctory clinical examination, identified other risk factors for death: apathy (9.71 [6.92; 13.6]), pallor (2.25 [1.25; 4.05]), anorexia (1.89 [1.35; 2.66]), fever>38.5°C (1.83 [1.25; 2.69]), and age below 1 year (1.42 [1.01; 1.99]). Conclusions Although clinicians will continue to perform screening using clinical signs and anthropometry, these risk indicators may provide additional criteria for the assessment of absolute and relative risk of death. Better appraisal of the childs risk of death may help orientate the child towards either hospitalization or ambulatory care. As the transition from the NCHS growth reference to the WHO standards will increase the number of children classified as severely malnourished, further studies should explore means to identify children at highest risk of death within this group using simple and standardized indicators.

Comparison of the New World Health Organization Growth Standards and the National Center for Health Statistics Growth Reference Regarding Mortality of Malnourished Children Treated in a 2006 Nutrition Program in Niger

OBJECTIVE To compare the National Centre for Health Statistics (NCHS) international growth reference with the new World Health Organization (WHO) growth standards for identification of the malnourished (wasted) children most at risk of death. DESIGN Retrospective data analysis. SETTING A Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders) nutrition program in Maradi, Niger, in 2006 that treated moderately and severely malnourished children. PARTICIPANTS A total of 53 661 wasted children aged 6 months to 5 years (272 of whom died) in the program were included. INTERVENTIONS EpiNut (Epi Info 6.0; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia) software was used to calculate the percentage of the median for the NCHS reference group, and the WHO (igrowup macro; Geneva, Switzerland) software was used to calculate z scores for the WHO standards group of the 53 661 wasted children. OUTCOME MEASURES The main outcome measures are the difference in classification of children as either moderate or severely malnourished according to the NCHS growth reference and the new WHO growth standards, specifically focusing on children who died during the program. RESULTS Of the children classified as moderately wasted using the NCHS reference, 37% would have been classified as severely wasted according to the new WHO growth standards. These children were almost 3 times more likely to die than those classified as moderately wasted by both references, and deaths in this group constituted 47% of all deaths in the program. CONCLUSIONS The new WHO growth standards identifies more children as severely wasted compared with the NCHS growth reference, including children at high mortality risk who would potentially otherwise be excluded from some therapeutic feeding programs.

Performance of small cluster surveys and the clustered LQAS design to estimate local-level vaccination coverage in Mali

BackgroundEstimation of vaccination coverage at the local level is essential to identify communities that may require additional support. Cluster surveys can be used in resource-poor settings, when population figures are inaccurate. To be feasible, cluster samples need to be small, without losing robustness of results. The clustered LQAS (CLQAS) approach has been proposed as an alternative, as smaller sample sizes are required.MethodsWe explored (i) the efficiency of cluster surveys of decreasing sample size through bootstrapping analysis and (ii) the performance of CLQAS under three alternative sampling plans to classify local VC, using data from a survey carried out in Mali after mass vaccination against meningococcal meningitis group A.ResultsVC estimates provided by a 10 × 15 cluster survey design were reasonably robust. We used them to classify health areas in three categories and guide mop-up activities: i) health areas not requiring supplemental activities; ii) health areas requiring additional vaccination; iii) health areas requiring further evaluation. As sample size decreased (from 10 × 15 to 10 × 3), standard error of VC and ICC estimates were increasingly unstable. Results of CLQAS simulations were not accurate for most health areas, with an overall risk of misclassification greater than 0.25 in one health area out of three. It was greater than 0.50 in one health area out of two under two of the three sampling plans.ConclusionsSmall sample cluster surveys (10 × 15) are acceptably robust for classification of VC at local level. We do not recommend the CLQAS method as currently formulated for evaluating vaccination programmes.

Reaching Hard-to-Reach Individuals: Nonselective Versus Targeted Outbreak Response Vaccination for Measles

Current mass vaccination campaigns in measles outbreak response are nonselective with respect to the immune status of individuals. However, the heterogeneity in immunity, due to previous vaccination coverage or infection, may lead to potential bias of such campaigns toward those with previous high access to vaccination and may result in a lower-than-expected effective impact. During the 2010 measles outbreak in Malawi, only 3 of the 8 districts where vaccination occurred achieved a measureable effective campaign impact (i.e., a reduction in measles cases in the targeted age groups greater than that observed in nonvaccinated districts). Simulation models suggest that selective campaigns targeting hard-to-reach individuals are of greater benefit, particularly in highly vaccinated populations, even for low target coverage and with late implementation. However, the choice between targeted and nonselective campaigns should be context specific, achieving a reasonable balance of feasibility, cost, and expected impact. In addition, it is critical to develop operational strategies to identify and target hard-to-reach individuals.

Local discrepancies in measles vaccination opportunities: results of population-based surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa

BackgroundThe World Health Organization recommends African children receive two doses of measles containing vaccine (MCV) through routine programs or supplemental immunization activities (SIA). Moreover, children have an additional opportunity to receive MCV through outbreak response immunization (ORI) mass campaigns in certain contexts. Here, we present the results of MCV coverage by dose estimated through surveys conducted after outbreak response in diverse settings in Sub-Saharan Africa.MethodsWe included 24 household-based surveys conducted in six countries after a non-selective mass vaccination campaign. In the majority (22/24), the survey sample was selected using probability proportional to size cluster-based sampling. Others used Lot Quality Assurance Sampling.ResultsIn total, data were collected on 60,895 children from 2005 to 2011. Routine coverage varied between countries (>95% in Malawi and Kirundo province (Burundi) while <35% in N’Djamena (Chad) in 2005), within a country and over time. SIA coverage was <75% in most settings. ORI coverage ranged from >95% in Malawi to 71.4% [95% CI: 68.9-73.8] in N’Djamena (Chad) in 2005.In five sites, >5% of children remained unvaccinated after several opportunities. Conversely, in Malawi and DRC, over half of the children eligible for the last SIA received a third dose of MCV.ConclusionsControl pre-elimination targets were still not reached, contributing to the occurrence of repeated measles outbreak in the Sub-Saharan African countries reported here. Although children receiving a dose of MCV through outbreak response benefit from the intervention, ensuring that programs effectively target hard to reach children remains the cornerstone of measles control.