Andrea Monticini

Are Euro Interest Rates led by FED Announcements

This paper investigates the degree and nature of economic and monetary policy relations among the United States, the Euro area, and Great Britain. Using daily interest rates, we estimate the impact of monetary policy announcements of a Central Bank on its domestic market and in what measure those announcements are able to influence other financial markets. In particular, we analyse the effect of the FED, ECB, and BoE monetary policy announcements on European markets. We find that Europe’s interest rates have a relevant response to FED announcements.

The Intraday Price of Money: Evidence from the E-Mid Market

We present a simple model, where intraday and overnight interest rates are linked by a no-arbitrage argument. The hourly interest rate is shown to be a function of the intraday term structure of the overnight rate. This property holds under both assumptions, where an explicit intraday market for interbank loans exists and when it does not. In the first case, such a property is an equilibrium condition; in the second one it holds by definition, as a synthetic hourly loan is a portfolio of overnight contracts. We then provide empirical evidence, based on tick- by-tick data for the e-MID money market (covering the whole 2003). The overnight rate shows a clear downward pattern throughout the operating day. A positive hourly interest rate emerges from the intraday term structure of the overnight rate: we estimate the market price of a one hour interbank loan to be slightly above a half basis point.

Tests for cointegration with structural breaks based on subsamples

Tests for cointegration with allowance for structural breaks using the extrema of residual-based tests over subsamples of the data are considered. One motivation for the approach is to formalize the practice of data snooping by practitioners, who may examine subsamples after failing to find a predicted cointegrating relationship. Valid critical values for such multiple testing situations may be useful. The methods also have the advantage of not imposing a form for the alternative hypothesis-in particular slope vs. intercept shifts and single versus multiple breaks-and being comparatively easy to compute. A range of alternative subsampling procedures, including sample splits, incremental and rolling samples are tabulated and compared experimentally. Shillers annual stock prices and dividends series provide an illustration.

After the Credit Crunch: Long-Term Finance for Economic Growth

We stress the role of a more balanced financial structure for the Italian corporate sector. Three sources of funding are seen as complementary: equity, long-term debt, and bank loans. An analysis of the credit crunch shows the emergence of two phases: the first from the Lehman crash (2008) to 2010; the second from the sovereign debt crisis (2011) to today. The supply of bank credit will not recover quickly, since bank behaviour is pro-cyclical and prudential regulation will not help. Italian firms should become less dependent on banks. Specialised intermediaries should channel funds from institutional investors to the corporate sector.