Giacomo Vaciago

The reputation of a newborn central bank

Most of the problems that the European Central Bank has encountered are due to the slow progress made in improving the quality of the monetary union. The increasing variance of the inflationary process among the 12 countries, especially at the extremes of income level distribution – between Germany and Portugal, say – has meant that the common monetary policy is not yet the best possible. The quest for an optimum currency area continues.

Are Euro Interest Rates led by FED Announcements

This paper investigates the degree and nature of economic and monetary policy relations among the United States, the Euro area, and Great Britain. Using daily interest rates, we estimate the impact of monetary policy announcements of a Central Bank on its domestic market and in what measure those announcements are able to influence other financial markets. In particular, we analyse the effect of the FED, ECB, and BoE monetary policy announcements on European markets. We find that Europe’s interest rates have a relevant response to FED announcements.

Lessons from the ECB Experience: Frankfurt Still Matters!

This paper compares the European Central Bank’s conduct of monetary policy (1999-2005) with that of the Bundesbank (after the German Unification: 1990-1998) in order to test the hypothesis of an ECB with “Bundesbank’s preferences” put forward in the theoretical literature (Alesina and Grilli 1993, Fatum 2006). Econometric tests and simulations based on monetary policy reaction functions show that the continuation of the former Bundesbank regime is supported by the data. Given this empirical evidence we discuss the lessons for future Monetary Unions stemming from the ECB experience.

Financial crises and economic theory

This article describes the contributions made by economic theory in understanding the financial crisis. The author contends that throughout history, economic problems were solved with theories that addressed the immediate problem, only to have new economic issues emerge afterward. Economic theory was targeted at maintaining monetary stability during the 1980s and 1990s, leaving insufficient theoretical analysis to address interests of financial stability, which is the economic problem the world is facing today. The author points to a new theoretical approach that balances the interests of previous economy theory with new and emerging challenges.

After the Credit Crunch: Long-Term Finance for Economic Growth

We stress the role of a more balanced financial structure for the Italian corporate sector. Three sources of funding are seen as complementary: equity, long-term debt, and bank loans. An analysis of the credit crunch shows the emergence of two phases: the first from the Lehman crash (2008) to 2010; the second from the sovereign debt crisis (2011) to today. The supply of bank credit will not recover quickly, since bank behaviour is pro-cyclical and prudential regulation will not help. Italian firms should become less dependent on banks. Specialised intermediaries should channel funds from institutional investors to the corporate sector.