Andrea Walpersdorf

Slow slip events and strain accumulation in the Guerrero gap, Mexico

Note: Best student presentation award Reference EPFL-TALK-183540 Record created on 2013-02-01, modified on 2016-08-09

Observing plate motions in S.E. Asia: Geodetic results of the GEODYSSEA Project

This paper presents the final geodetic results of the GEODYSSEA project. The GPS data from a 42 station network observed during two field campaigns (1994/1996) were analyzed by four groups using different software packages and analysis strategies. The precision of both campaign coordinate solutions was found to be 4–7 mm for the horizontal, and 1 cm for the vertical component. The campaign solutions were merged into one unique solution, which was accurately mapped into the ITRF-96 reference frame. The global accuracy of this solution with respect to ITRF-96 is ±1 cm, while the resolution of the relative horizontal velocities is estimated to be at the level of 2–3 mm/yr. This solution was used as the basis for all scientific interpretations, which are published in separate papers. The velocity estimates of a part of the network provided the first direct measurement of a relative motion of the Sundaland block with respect to Eurasian plate.

Present-day kinematics and fault slip rates in eastern Iran, derived from 11 years of GPS data

We analyze new GPS data spanning 11 years at 92 stations in eastern Iran. We use these data to analyze the present-day kinematics and the slip rates on most seismogenic faults in eastern Iran. The east Lut, west Lut, Kuhbanan, Anar, Dehshir, and Doruneh faults are confirmed as the major faults and are found to currently slip laterally at 5.6 ± 0.6, 4.4 ± 0.4, 3.6 ± 1.3, 2.0 ± 0.7, 1.4 ± 0.9, and 1.3 ± 0.8 mm/yr, respectively. Slip is right-lateral on the ~NS striking east Lut, west Lut, Kuhbanan, Anar, and Dehshir faults and left-lateral on the ~EW Doruneh fault. The ~NS faults slice the eastern Iranian crust into five blocks that are moving northward at 6–13 mm/yr with respect to the stable Afghan crust at the eastern edge of the collision zone. The collective behavior of the ~NS faults might thus allow the Arabian promontory to impinge northward into the Eurasian crust. The ~NS faults achieve additional NS shortening by rotating counterclockwise in the horizontal plane, at current rates up to 0.8°/Ma. Modeling the GPS and available geological data with a block rotation model suggests that the rotations have been going on at a similar rate (1 ± 0.4°/Ma) over the last 12 Ma. We identify large strains at the tips of the rotating east Lut, west Lut, and Kuhbanan faults, which we suspect to be responsible for the important historical and instrumental seismicity in those zones.

Monitoring Temperate Glacier Displacement by Multi-Temporal TerraSAR-X Images and Continuous GPS Measurements

A new generation of space-borne SAR sensors were launched in 2006-2007 with ALOS, TerraSAR-X, COSMO-Sky-Med and RadarSat-2 satellites. The data available in different bands (L, C and X bands), with High Resolution (HR) or multi-polarization modes offer new possibilities to monitor glacier displacement and surface evolution by SAR remote sensing. In this paper, the first results obtained with TerraSAR-X HR SAR image time series acquired over the temperate glaciers of the Chamonix Mont-Blanc test site are presented. This area involves well-known temperate glaciers which have been monitored and instrumented i.e. stakes for annual displacement/ablation, GPS for surface displacement and cavitometer for basal displacement, for more than 50 years. The potential of 11-day repeated X-band HR SAR data for Alpine glacier monitoring is investigated by a combined use of in situ measurements and multi-temporal images. Interpretations of HR images, analysis of interferometric pairs and performance assessments of target/texture tracking methods for glacier motion estimation are presented. The results obtained with four time series covering the Chamonix Mont-Blanc glaciers over one year show that the phase information is rarely preserved after 11 days on such glaciers, whereas the high resolution intensity information allows the main glacier features to be observed and displacement fields on the textured areas to be derived.

GPS zenith delay sensitivity evaluated from high-resolution numerical weather prediction simulations of the 8–9 September 2002 flash flood over southeastern France

Estimations of zenith total delays (ZTD) were obtained during postprocessing of a high-resolution (2.4 km) nonhydrostatic atmospheric model (Meso-NH). These estimations were used to determine their sensitivity with respect to formulations of atmospheric refractivity, the approximation of zenith hydrostatic delays (ZHD) deduced from ground pressure, and the contributions of hydrometeors. The factor k for the conversion of zenith wet delay (ZWD) to integrated water vapor (IWV) was examined. Meso-NH is applied here to the extreme flash flood event of 8–9 September 2002 in southeastern France. The use of the hydrostatic formulation (to infer ZHD) leads to an overestimation of up to 18 mm with respect to the vertical integration of refractivity. Delay contributions of hydrometeors simulated by the high-resolution model reached more than 70 mm (%11 kg/m 2 IWV) in the heart of the convective cells in the case of the extreme flood event. The mean variations of IWV due to the use of different conversion factors (k used to transform ZWD to IWV) are evaluated to be less than 0.3 kg/m 2. This is less than the mean underestimation of IWV by 0.6 kg/m 2 relative to the GPS-like evaluation of IWV using the hydrostatic formulation and the ground temperature. In this study we also use GPS ZTD observations to validate three different numerical simulations of this extreme flood event. The simulation with the best fit to the GPS observations is also in best agreement with the surface rainfall measurements.

GPS compared to long-term geologic motion of the north arm of Sulawesi

Geodetic data acquired in the north arm of Sulawesi are compared with geologic and palaeomagnetic data from north Sulawesi and the Celebes Sea. The objective of this study is to assess whether the long-term motion deduced from palaeomagnetic and geological studies is coherent with the extrapolation of the current motions measured by GPS. Palaeomagnetic data that have been collected in the north arm of Sulawesi indicate that since 5 Ma about 20 to 25o of semi-rigid rotation occurred about a pole located north of Manado. This suggests 200 to 250 km of left-lateral displacement along the Palu‐Koro fault with a displacement rate of 4 cm=year. A rather similar displacement on the Palu fault is derived using the distribution of the asymmetric magnetic anomalies of the Celebes seafloor. The distribution implies that 200 to 250 km of oceanic crust was subducted at the north Sulawesi trench. Another marker for the rotation is derived from the opening of the Gulf of Tomini and the NW migration of the calc-alkaline subduction-related volcanism. The far-field observation by GPS of 4 cm=year of left-lateral strike-slip motion over 17 months and the 5 year average of 3:4 0:3 cm=year on a transect across the Palu fault fit well with the geological observations that indicate a motion of 4 to 5 cm=year of the north arm. We therefore conclude that the current rates deduced from GPS measurements approximate the long-term rates and may hence be extrapolated over a few million years.

Monitoring of the Palu‐Koro Fault (Sulawesi) by GPS

years of GPS measurements across the Palu-Koro fault (Sulawesi, Indonesia) state left lateral strike-slip (3.4 cm/yr) with a small normal component (0.4 cm/yr). The measurements on intermediate points of the transect show that the fault is locked, at a depth estimated around 8-16 km by a very simple model. The best measured baseline linking the two most separate sites (Watatu and Toboli) shows very interestingly a constant rate of 2.6 cm/yr from 1992 to 1995, and an increased rate of 6.3 cm/yr since then. This increase is due to an earthquake on January 1, 1996 in the Minahasa trench, presumably affecting station Tobolis position by 2 cm of co-seismic and 2 cm of post-seismic displacement, which is added to its long term velocity. We interpret this phenomenon as additional stress loading on the Palu fault, driven by the slip during the earthquake 100 km to the North-East.

Anticipating the Next Large Silent Earthquake in Mexico

Silent earthquakes, or slow slip events (SSEs), in subduction zones [Schwartz and Rokosky, 2007] release accumulated strain energy within tens of minutes to a few months, as opposed to a few seconds or minutes for “regular” earthquakes [Kostoglodov et al., 2003]. This phenomenon has important implications for the seismic cycle because SSEs significantly modify the loading-unloading budget of faults; their existence suggests that the buildup and relaxing mechanisms of the earthquake cycle are much more complex than previously thought. Numerous important questions have to be answered concerning SSEs, in particular, their specific location on the fault, the amount of slip at depth, and their recurrence. Depending on whether they occur on the seismogenic or creeping section of the fault, they may release some accumulated elastic strain or further load the brittle part of the fault, effectively lengthening or shortening the time before the next large regular earthquake. In that framework, assessing the repartition of the displacement on the subduction interface and the frequency of SSEs is of particular importance, because these parameters govern the extent to which SSEs may slow or accelerate the regular earthquake clock.

Two successive slow slip events evidenced in 2009–2010 by a dense GPS network in Guerrero, Mexico

A large slow slip event (SSE) had been expected for the Guerrero gap for 2010. It was actually observed with an onset in July 2009. Comparison with the preceding large SSEs, which occurred in 2002 and 2006, highlights both persistent characteristics of the Guerrero SSEs (e.g. the localization of slip in the seismogenic part of the subduction interface), and also particularities of the 2009/2010 event (namely two distinct slip patches on the fault interface moving consecutively). The long GPS time series and the density of the GPS network provide evidence that the Guerrero SSEs, like classical earthquakes, have complex features. Despite having very short and relatively regular repeat times (∼4 yr), Guerrero SSEs appear aperiodic. A shorter loading time before the 2009/2010 event than before the 2006 SSE seems to produce consistently reduced surface displacements for a group of stations in a core zone.

Impact of GPS zenith delay assimilation on convective‐scale prediction of Mediterranean heavy rainfall

The numerical weather prediction forecast skill of heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean regions is currently limited, partly because of the paucity of water vapor observations assimilated today. An attempt to fill this observational gap is provided by Global Positioning System (GPS) ground station data over Europe that are now routinely processed into observations of Zenith Total Delay (ZTD), which is closely related to the tropospheric water vapor content. We evaluate here the impact of assimilating the GPS ZTD on the high-resolution (2.4-km) nonhydrostatic prediction of rainfall for the heavy precipitation event of 5–9 September 2005 over Southern France. First, we assimilate the GPS ZTD observations in the three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system of the 9.5-km horizontal resolution ALADIN/France hydrostatic model with parameterized convection. This one-month-long assimilation experiment includes the heavy rainfall period. Prior to the assimilation, a GPS ZTD observation preprocessing is carried out for quality control and bias correction. We find that the GPS ZTD observations impact mainly the representation of the humidity in the low to middle troposphere. We then conduct forecast trials with the Meso-NH model, which explicitly resolves the deep convection, using the analyses of the 3DVAR ALADIN/France assimilation experiments as initial and boundary conditions. Our results indicate a benefit of GPS ZTD data assimilation for improving the Meso-NH precipitation forecasts of the heavy rainfall event.