Nathalie Cotte

Uncovering the geodetic signature of silent slip through repeating earthquakes

Slow transient slip that releases stress along the deep roots of plate interfaces is most often observed on regional GPS networks installed at the surface. The detection of slow slip is not trivial if the dislocation along the fault at depth does not generate a geodetic signal greater than the observational noise level. Instead of the typical workflow of comparing independently gathered seismic and geodetic observations to study slow slip, we use repeating low-frequency earthquakes to reveal a previously unobserved slow slip event. By aligning GPS time series with episodes of low-frequency earthquake activity and stacking, we identify a repeating transient slip event that generates a displacement at the surface that is hidden under noise prior to stacking. Our results suggest that the geodetic investigation of transient slip guided by seismological information is essential in exploring the spectrum of fault slip.

Anticipating the Next Large Silent Earthquake in Mexico

Silent earthquakes, or slow slip events (SSEs), in subduction zones [Schwartz and Rokosky, 2007] release accumulated strain energy within tens of minutes to a few months, as opposed to a few seconds or minutes for “regular” earthquakes [Kostoglodov et al., 2003]. This phenomenon has important implications for the seismic cycle because SSEs significantly modify the loading-unloading budget of faults; their existence suggests that the buildup and relaxing mechanisms of the earthquake cycle are much more complex than previously thought. n nNumerous important questions have to be answered concerning SSEs, in particular, their specific location on the fault, the amount of slip at depth, and their recurrence. Depending on whether they occur on the seismogenic or creeping section of the fault, they may release some accumulated elastic strain or further load the brittle part of the fault, effectively lengthening or shortening the time before the next large regular earthquake. In that framework, assessing the repartition of the displacement on the subduction interface and the frequency of SSEs is of particular importance, because these parameters govern the extent to which SSEs may slow or accelerate the regular earthquake clock.

Slow Slip History for the MEXICO Subduction Zone: 2005 Through 2011

AbstractTo further our understanding of the seismically hazardous Mexico subduction zone, we estimate the first time-dependent slip distributions and Coulomb failure stress changes for the six major slow slip events (SSEs) that occurred below Mexico between late 2005 and mid-2011. Slip distnributions are the first to be estimated from all continuous GPS data in central and southern Mexico, which better resolves slow slip in space and time than was previously possible in this region. Below Oaxaca, slip during previously un-modeled SSEs in 2008/9 and 2010/11 extended farther to the west than previous SSEs. This constitutes the first evidence that slow slip accounts for deep slip within a previously noted gap between the Oaxaca and Guerrero SSE source regions. The slip that we estimate for the two SSEs that originated below Guerrero between 2005 and 2011 agrees with slip estimated in previous, mostly static-offset SSE modeling studies; however, we show that both SSEs migrated eastward toward the Oaxaca SSE source region. In accord with previous work, we find that slow slip below Guerrero intrudes up-dip into the potentially seismogenic region, presumably accounting for some of the missing slip within the well-described Guerrero seismic gap. In contrast, slow slip below Oaxaca between 2005 and 2011 occurred mostly down-dip from the seismogenic regions defined by the rupture zones of large thrust earthquakes in 1968 and 1978 and released all of the slip deficit that accumulated in the down-dip region during this period.

GPS deformation related to the Mw 7.3, 2014, Papanoa earthquake (Mexico) reveals the aseismic behavior of the Guerrero seismic gap

We present the study of 21 continuous GPS (cGPS) stations in Mexico during the time interval that goes from 1 October 2013 to 31 December 2014. The area under investigation produced a slow slip event (SSE) that started in February 2014 and lasted at least until December 2014. Superimposed on this transient signal, the M_w 7.3 Papanoa earthquake struck the region on 18 April 2014 and affected multiple stations. Thanks to an independent component analysis (ICA) technique we are able to separate the postseismic deformation associated with this earthquake from the deformation related to the ongoing SSE. We infer the slip distributions associated with the three tectonically related processes: the coseismic and postseismic slip and the SSE. The inferred postseismic slip distribution reduces the amount of slip related to the SSE in the updip portion of the slab. The moment released by the postseismic processes (afterslip and aftershocks) is estimated to be [8.06 ± 0.24] × 10^(19) Nm, equivalent to [71 ± 4]% of the moment associated with the main shock. More than 88% of the postseismic moment is released aseismically and the afterslip spatially correlates with the Guerrero seismic gap, suggesting that the region is controlled by stable sliding behavior and rate-strengthening frictional properties.

A geodetic matched filter search for slow slip with application to the Mexico subduction zone

Since the discovery of slow slip events, many methods have been successfully applied to model obvious transient events in geodetic time series, such as the widely used network strain filter. Independent seismological observations of tremors or low-frequency earthquakes and repeating earthquakes provide evidence of low-amplitude slow deformation but do not always coincide with clear occurrences of transient signals in geodetic time series. Here we aim to extract the signal corresponding to slow slips hidden in the noise of GPS time series, without using information from independent data sets. We first build a library of synthetic slow slip event templates by assembling a source function with Green’s functions for a discretized fault. We then correlate the templates with postprocessed GPS time series. Once the events have been detected in time, we estimate their duration T and magnitude Mw by modeling a weighted stack of GPS time series. An analysis of synthetic time series shows that this method is able to resolve the correct timing, location, T , and Mw of events larger than Mw 6 in the context of the Mexico subduction zone. Applied on a real data set of 29 GPS time series in the Guerrero area from 2005 to 2014, this technique allows us to detect 28 transient events from Mw 6.3 to 7.2 with durations that range from 3 to 39 days. These events have a dominant recurrence time of 40 days and are mainly located at the downdip edges of the Mw > 7.5 slow slip events.