Andreas Bauder

Determination of the seasonal mass balance of four Alpine glaciers since 1865

Alpine glaciers have suffered major losses of ice in the last century. We compute spatially distributed seasonal mass balances of four glaciers in the Swiss Alps (Grosser Aletschgletscher, Rhonegletscher, Griesgletscher and Silvrettagletscher) for the period 1865 to 2006. The mass balance model is forced by daily air temperature and precipitation data compiled from various long-term data series. The model is calibrated using ice volume changes derived from five to nine high-resolution digital elevation models, annual discharge data and a newly compiled data set of more than 4000 in situ measurements of mass balance covering different subperiods. The cumulative mass balances over the 142 year period vary between -35 and -97 m revealing a considerable mass loss. There is no significant trend in winter balances, whereas summer balances display important fluctuations. The rate of mass loss in the 1940s was higher than in the last decade. Our approach combines different types of field data with mass balance modeling to resolve decadal scale ice volume change observations to seasonal and spatially distributed mass balance series. The results contribute to a better understanding of the climatic forcing on Alpine glaciers in the last century.

Projections of future water resources and their uncertainty in a glacierized catchment in the Swiss Alps and the subsequent effects on hydropower production during the 21st century

[1] Hydropower accounts for about 20% of the worldwide electrical power production. In mountainous regions this ratio is significantly higher. In this study we present how future projected climatic forcing, as described in regional climate models (RCMs), will affect water resources and subsequently hydropower production in downstream hydropower plants in a glacierized alpine valley (Vispa valley, Switzerland, 778 km 2 ). In order to estimate future runoff generation and hydropower production, we used error-corrected and downscaled climate scenarios from regional climate models (RCMs) as well as glacier retreat projections from a dynamic glacier model and coupled them to a physically based hydrological model. Furthermore, we implemented all relevant hydropower operational rules in the hydrological model to estimate future hydropower production based on the runoff projections. The uncertainty of each modeling component (climate projections, glacier retreat, and hydrological projection) and the resulting propagation of uncertainty to the projected future water availability for energy production were assessed using an analysis of variance. While the uncertainty of the projections is considerable, the consistent trends observed in all projections indicate significant changes to the current situation. The model results indicate that future melt- and rainfall-runoff will increase during spring but decline during summer. The study concludes by outlining the most relevant expected changes for hydropower operations.

Ice-volume changes of selected glaciers in the Swiss Alps since the end of the 19th century

Abstract The evolution of surface topography of glaciers in the Swiss Alps is well documented with high-resolution aerial photographs repeatedly recorded since the 1960s and further back in time with topographic maps including elevation contour lines first surveyed in the mid-19th century. In order to quantify and interpret glacier changes in the Swiss Alps, time series of volume changes over the last 100–150 years have been collected. The available datasets provide a detailed spatial resolution for the retreat period since the end of the Little Ice Age. The spatial distribution as well as temporal variations of the thickness change were analyzed. A significant ice loss since the end of the 19th century was observed in the ablation area, while the changes in the accumulation area were small. We found moderate negative secular rates until the 1960s, followed by steady to positive rates for about two decades and strong ice loss starting in the 1980s which has lasted until the present. An evaluation of 19 glaciers revealed a total ice volume loss of about 13km3 since the 1870s, of which 8.7 km3 occurred since the 1920s and 3.5 km3 since 1980. Decadal mean net balance rates for the periods 1920–60, 1960–80 and 1980–present are –0.29, –0.03 and –0.53ma–1w.e., respectively.

100-year mass changes in the Swiss Alps linked to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

Thirty new 100-year records of glacier surface mass balance, accumulation and melt in the Swiss Alps are presented. The time series are based on a comprehensive set of field data and distributed modeling and provide insights into the glacier-climate linkage. Considerable mass loss over the 20th century is evident for all glaciers, but rates differ strongly. Glacier mass loss shows multidecadal variations and was particularly rapid in the 1940s and since the 1980s. Mass balance is significantly anticorrelated to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index assumed to be linked to thermohaline ocean circulation. We show that North Atlantic variability had a recognizable impact on glacier changes in the Swiss Alps for at least 250 years. Citation: Huss, M., R. Hock, A. Bauder, and M. Funk (2010), 100-year mass changes in the Swiss Alps linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L10501, doi:.

Homogenization of long-term mass-balance time series

Abstract The re-analysis of long-term mass-balance time series is important to provide bias-corrected mass-balance data for climate-change impact studies. A method to homogenize time series of comprehensive mass-balance monitoring programmes is presented and applied to the nearly 50 year mass-balance records of Griesgletscher and Silvrettagletscher, Switzerland. Using a distributed mass-balance model in daily resolution we correct the mass-balance data for varying observation dates. Direct point measurements are combined with independent geodetic mass changes, a prerequisite for a thorough homogenization of mass-balance records. Differences between mass balance evaluated in the hydrological year or according to the measurement period and the stratigraphic system are analysed and may be up to ±0.5mw.e. a − 1. Cumulative mass balance of both glaciers based on the glaciological method generally agrees well with geodetic mass change on the investigated glaciers. However, for Silvretta-gletscher a significant bias of +0.37mw.e. a − 1 has been detected and corrected for since 1994.

Glacier-dammed lake outburst events of Gornersee, Switzerland

Gornersee, Switzerland, is an ice-marginal lake, which drains almost every year, subglacially, within a few days. We present an analysis of the lake outburst events between 1950 and 2005, as well as results of detailed field investigations related to the lake drainage in 2004 and 2005. The latter include measurements of lake geometry, water pressure in nearby boreholes and glacier surface motion. A distributed temperature-index melt model coupled to a linear-reservoir runoff model is used to calculate hourly discharge from the catchment of Gornergletscher in order to distinguish between the melt/precipitation component and the outburst component of the discharge hydrograph. In this way, drainage volume and timing are determined. From 1950 there is a clear trend for the outburst flood to occur earlier in the melt season, but there is no trend in lake discharge volumes. Peak discharges from the lake lie significantly below the values obtained using the empirical relation proposed by Clague and Mathews (1973). The shapes of the 2004 and 2005 lake outflow hydrographs differ substantially, suggesting different drainage mechanisms. From water balance considerations we infer a leakage of the glacier-dammed lake in 2005, starting 1 week prior to the lake outburst. During the drainage events, up to half of the lake water is temporarily stored in the glacial system, causing substantial uplift of the glacier surface.

Reversal of ice motion during the outburst of a glacier-dammed lake on Gornergletscher, Switzerland

During the outburst flood of a glacier-dammed lake on Gornergletscher, Switzerland, in July 2004, the drained lake water triggered anomalous glacier motion. At the onset of the outburst, the ice-flow direction in the vicinity of the lake became closer to the central flowline. When the lake discharge magnitude decreased, the flow direction altered such that the ice moved back to the azimuth of the initial motion. At one of the survey points, where the ice flows parallel to the central flowline, the ice accelerated along the pre-event flow direction followed by a 1808 backward motion that lasted over 2 days. These observations indicate the impact of the lake outburst on the subglacial and englacial stress conditions; however, the reversal in the flow direction is difficult to explain by drawing on our current understanding of glacier mechanics. The timing and the timescale of the flow-direction changes suggest that the elastic glacier motion and its rebound played a role under the rapidly changing stress conditions, but the Youngs modulus of ice is too large to cause the observed ice motion. Other processes, including basal separation and subglacial sediment deformation, are discussed as possible mechanisms for the reversal of the ice motion.

The ice-thickness distribution of Unteraargletscher, Switzerland

Abstract Results from 15 years of work on glacier-bed mapping by radio-echo soundings on Finsteraar-, Lauteraar- and Unteraargletscher, Switzerland, are summarized, and a new and greatly improved map of the ice-thickness distribution presented. In contrast to the tongue of Unteraargletscher, its two main tributaries, Lauteraar and Finsteraar, are both deep and narrow, and ice-thickness determination depends on the detection of more than just the primary reflection. Migrating the data led to considerably improved bed determination. Wherever possible, additional information on ice thicknesses gained from numerous hot-water drillings to the glacier bed is used as an independent verification of the results of the radar measurements, and a fair agreement is found.

Estimating rates of basal motion and internal ice deformation from continuous tilt measurements

Over a two-year period, continuous measurements of temporal changes in tilt, conducted with a string of tilt meters in a borehole on Unteraargletscher, Bernese Alps, Switzerland, have been used to estimate the basal-motion component. This estimation is based on a comparison of the measurements with synthetic tilt curves, computed using a parameterization of a simplified flow field. The best agreement is found for a ratio of basal motion to forward motion due to ice deformation (slip ratio) equal to about 1.2. Measured tilt curves exhibit a number of different transient features. While an overall increase in tilt angle is observed at every tilt-meter location, two of the sensors recorded anomalous tilt behaviour. These anomalies are characterized by sudden and drastic variations in tilt. A particularly intriguing example of such short-term tilt variations was recorded with a tilt meter positioned 40 m above the bed during the 1997 summer melt season.

Long-term change of mass balance and the role of radiation

Abstract The effect of climate change in the 20th century is investigated based on measured mass-balance data. Annual, winter and summer mass balances on Claridenfirn, Switzerland, (since 1914/15) Storglaciären, Sweden, (since 1945/46) Storbreen, Norway, (since 1948/49) Glacier de Sarennes, France, (since 1948/49) and Vernagtferner, Austria, (since 1965/66) are studied with air temperature at high-altitude stations and the longest records of solar global radiation in Europe. The mean mass balances of these glaciers during the 20th century were mostly negative except for the first two decades. The fluctuating mass balance reaches the minimum (largest loss) and maximum (almost equilibrium) around 1940 and 1980, respectively, with a drastic loss in the last 15 years. These variations are mostly steered by the variation in summer mass balance. The change in the summer mass balance is determined to 72% by temperature and the remaining 28% by solar radiation. During the colder period (e.g. 1960–80), the reduction in solar radiation counteracted the warming trend due to the greenhouse effect. Since 1990 the greenhouse effect of terrestrial radiation and the global brightening effect of solar radiation have both been acting to accelerate the melt, resulting in the unprecedented mass loss of the observational era. The glacier mass balance during the 20th century clearly reacted towards temperature and solar radiation changes, which reflected the greenhouse effect and aerosol and cloud variations.