Andreas Oschlies

Impacts of Atmospheric Anthropogenic Nitrogen on the Open Ocean

Increasing quantities of atmospheric anthropogenic fixed nitrogen entering the open ocean could account for up to about a third of the oceans external (nonrecycled) nitrogen supply and up to ∼3% of the annual new marine biological production, ∼0.3 petagram of carbon per year. This input could account for the production of up to ∼1.6 teragrams of nitrous oxide (N2O) per year. Although ∼10% of the oceans drawdown of atmospheric anthropogenic carbon dioxide may result from this atmospheric nitrogen fertilization, leading to a decrease in radiative forcing, up to about two-thirds of this amount may be offset by the increase in N2O emissions. The effects of increasing atmospheric nitrogen deposition are expected to continue to grow in the future.

Enhanced biological carbon consumption in a high CO2 ocean

The oceans have absorbed nearly half of the fossil-fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted into the atmosphere since pre-industrial times, causing a measurable reduction in seawater pH and carbonate saturation. If CO2 emissions continue to rise at current rates, upper-ocean pH will decrease to levels lower than have existed for tens of millions of years and, critically, at a rate of change 100 times greater than at any time over this period. Recent studies have shown effects of ocean acidification on a variety of marine life forms, in particular calcifying organisms. Consequences at the community to ecosystem level, in contrast, are largely unknown. Here we show that dissolved inorganic carbon consumption of a natural plankton community maintained in mesocosm enclosures at initial CO2 partial pressures of 350, 700 and 1,050 μatm increases with rising CO2. The community consumed up to 39% more dissolved inorganic carbon at increased CO2 partial pressures compared to present levels, whereas nutrient uptake remained the same. The stoichiometry of carbon to nitrogen drawdown increased from 6.0 at low CO2 to 8.0 at high CO2, thus exceeding the Redfield carbon:nitrogen ratio of 6.6 in today’s ocean. This excess carbon consumption was associated with higher loss of organic carbon from the upper layer of the stratified mesocosms. If applicable to the natural environment, the observed responses have implications for a variety of marine biological and biogeochemical processes, and underscore the importance of biologically driven feedbacks in the ocean to global change.

Eddy-induced enhancement of primary production in a model of the North Atlantic Ocean

In steady state, the export of photosynthetically fixed organic matter to the deep ocean has to be balanced by an upward flux of nutrients into the euphotic zone. Indirect geochemical estimates of the nutrient supply to surface waters have been substantially higher than direct biological and physical measurements, particularly in subtropical regions. A possible explanation for the apparent discrepancy is that the sampling strategy of the direct measurements has under-represented episodic nutrient injections forced by mesoscale eddy dynamics, whereas geochemical tracer budgets integrate fluxes over longer time and space scales. Here we investigate the eddy-induced nutrient supply by combining two methods potentially capable of delivering synoptic descriptions of the oceans state on a basin scale. Remotely sensed sea-surface height data from the simultaneous TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS-1 satellite missions are assimilated into a numerical eddy-resolving coupled ecosystem–circulation model of the North Atlantic Ocean. Our results indicate that mesoscale eddy activity accounts for about one-third of the total flux of nitrate into the euphotic zone (taken to represent new production) in the subtropics and at mid-latitudes. This contribution is not sufficient to maintain the observed primary production in parts of the subtropical gyre, where alternative routes of nitrogen supply will have to be considered.

Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business‐as‐usual CO2 emission scenario until year 4000 AD

A new model of global climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling, including a fully coupled carbon cycle, is presented and evaluated. The model is consistent with multiple observational data sets from the past 50 years as well as with the observed warming of global surface air and sea temperatures during the last 150 years. It is applied to a simulation of the coming two millennia following a business-as-usual scenario of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (SRES A2 until year 2100 and subsequent linear decrease to zero until year 2300, corresponding to a total release of 5100 GtC). Atmospheric CO2 increases to a peak of more than 2000 ppmv near year 2300 (that is an airborne fraction of 72% of the emissions) followed by a gradual decline to ∼1700 ppmv at year 4000 (airborne fraction of 56%). Forty-four percent of the additional atmospheric CO2 at year 4000 is due to positive carbon cycle–climate feedbacks. Global surface air warms by ∼10°C, sea ice melts back to 10% of its current area, and the circulation of the abyssal ocean collapses. Subsurface oxygen concentrations decrease, tripling the volume of suboxic water and quadrupling the global water column denitrification. We estimate 60 ppb increase in atmospheric N2O concentrations owing to doubling of its oceanic production, leading to a weak positive feedback and contributing about 0.24°C warming at year 4000. Global ocean primary production almost doubles by year 4000. Planktonic biomass increases at high latitudes and in the subtropics whereas it decreases at midlatitudes and in the tropics. In our model, which does not account for possible direct impacts of acidification on ocean biology, production of calcium carbonate in the surface ocean doubles, further increasing surface ocean and atmospheric pCO2. This represents a new positive feedback mechanism and leads to a strengthening of the positive interaction between climate change and the carbon cycle on a multicentennial to millennial timescale. Changes in ocean biology become important for the ocean carbon uptake after year 2600, and at year 4000 they account for 320 ppmv or 22% of the atmospheric CO2 increase since the preindustrial era.

An eddy-permitting coupled physical-biological model of the North Atlantic: 1. Sensitivity to advection numerics and mixed layer physics

Physical influences on biological primary production in the North Atlantic are investigated by coupling a four-component pelagic ecosystem model with a high-resolution numerical circulation model. A series of sensitivity experiments demonstrates the important role of an accurate formulation of upper ocean turbulence and advection numerics. The unrealistically large diffusivity implicit in upstream advection approximately doubles primary production when compared with a less diffusive, higher-order, positive-definite advection scheme.This is of particular concern in the equatorial upwelling region where upstream advection leads to a considerable increase of upper ocean nitrate concentrations. Counteracting this effect of unrealistically large implicit diffusion by changes in the biological model could easily lead to misconceptions in the interpretation of ecosystem dynamics. Subgrid-scale diapycnal diffusion strongly controls biological production in the subtropical gyre where winter mixing does not reach the nutricline. The parameterization of vertical viscosity is important mainly in the equatorial region where friction becomes an important agent in the momentum balance.

Sensitivities of marine carbon fluxes to ocean change

Throughout Earths history, the oceans have played a dominant role in the climate system through the storage and transport of heat and the exchange of water and climate-relevant gases with the atmosphere. The oceans heat capacity is ≈1,000 times larger than that of the atmosphere, its content of reactive carbon more than 60 times larger. Through a variety of physical, chemical, and biological processes, the ocean acts as a driver of climate variability on time scales ranging from seasonal to interannual to decadal to glacial–interglacial. The same processes will also be involved in future responses of the ocean to global change. Here we assess the responses of the seawater carbonate system and of the oceans physical and biological carbon pumps to (i) ocean warming and the associated changes in vertical mixing and overturning circulation, and (ii) ocean acidification and carbonation. Our analysis underscores that many of these responses have the potential for significant feedback to the climate system. Because several of the underlying processes are interlinked and nonlinear, the sign and magnitude of the oceans carbon cycle feedback to climate change is yet unknown. Understanding these processes and their sensitivities to global change will be crucial to our ability to project future climate change.

Simulated 21st century's increase in oceanic suboxia by CO2-enhanced biotic carbon export

The primary impacts of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on marine biogeochemical cycles predicted so far include ocean acidification, global warming induced shifts in biogeographical provinces, and a possible negative feedback on atmospheric CO2 levels by CO2‐fertilized biological production. Here we report a new potentially significant impact on the oxygen‐minimum zones of the tropical oceans. Using a model of global climate, ocean circulation, and biogeochemical cycling, we extrapolate mesocosm‐derived experimental findings of a pCO2‐sensitive increase in biotic carbon‐to‐nitrogen drawdown to the global ocean. For a simulation run from the onset of the industrial revolution until A.D. 2100 under a “business‐as‐usual” scenario for anthropogenic CO2 emissions, our model predicts a negative feedback on atmospheric CO2 levels, which amounts to 34 Gt C by the end of this century. While this represents a small alteration of the anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon cycle, the model results reveal a dramatic 50% increase in the suboxic water volume by the end of this century in response to the respiration of excess organic carbon formed at higher CO2 levels. This is a significant expansion of the marine “dead zones” with severe implications not only for all higher life forms but also for oxygen‐sensitive nutrient recycling and, hence, for oceanic nutrient inventories.

Tracking the variable North Atlantic sink for atmospheric CO2

A Happy Marriage The fluxes of CO2 between the atmosphere and ocean are large and variable, and understanding why the concentration of atmospheric CO2 changes as it does, depends on accurately determining the details of those fluxes. One of the major obstacles in the way of quantifying this exchange is that there are too few measurements available, both temporally and geographically. Watson et al. (p. 1391) report results from a happy marriage of science and commerce—data collected by instruments fitted onto commercial ships plying the waters of the North Atlantic Ocean—that has generated the largest and most comprehensive set of measurements of ocean pCO2 ever collected. These data allow the oceanic CO2 sink to be monitored with unprecedented accuracy and will help researchers precisely map regional interannual air-sea fluxes. Data from instrumented commercial ships reveal substantial interannual variations of carbon dioxide flux between the ocean and the air. The oceans are a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Historically, observations have been too sparse to allow accurate tracking of changes in rates of CO2 uptake over ocean basins, so little is known about how these vary. Here, we show observations indicating substantial variability in the CO2 uptake by the North Atlantic on time scales of a few years. Further, we use measurements from a coordinated network of instrumented commercial ships to define the annual flux into the North Atlantic, for the year 2005, to a precision of about 10%. This approach offers the prospect of accurately monitoring the changing ocean CO2 sink for those ocean basins that are well covered by shipping routes.

The Role of Mesoscale Variability on Plankton Dynamics in the North Atlantic

The intensive field observational phase of JGOFS in the North Atlantic Ocean has shown the importance of oceanic mesoscale variability on biogeochemical cycles and on the strength of the ocean biological pump. Mesoscale physical dynamics govern the major time/space scales of bulk biological variability (biomass, production and export). Mesoscale eddies seem to have a strong impact on the ecosystem structure and functioning, but observational evidence is rather limited. For the signature of the mesoscale features to exist in the ecosystem, the comparison of temporal scales of formation and evolution of mesoscale features and reaction of the ecosystem is a key factor. Biological patterns are driven by active changes in biological source and sink terms rather than simply by passive turbulent mixing. A first modelling assessment of the regional balances between horizontal and vertical eddy-induced nutrient supplies in the euphotic zone shows that the horizontal transport predominates over the vertical route in the subtropical gyre, whereas the reverse holds true for the other biogeochemical provinces of the North Atlantic. Presently, despite some difference in numbers, the net impact of modelled eddies yields an enhancement of the biological productivity in most provinces of the North Atlantic Ocean. Key issues remaining include variation on the mesoscale of subsurface particle and dissolved organic matter remineralization, improved knowledge of the ecological response to patterns of variability, synopticity in mesoscale surveys along with refining measures of biogeochemical time/space variability. Eventual success of assimilation of in situ and satellite data, still in its infancy in coupled physical/biogeochemical models, will be crucial to achieve JGOFS synthesis in answering which data are most informative, standing stocks or rates, and which ones are relevant. Depending on which end of the spectrum quantification of the effect of mesoscale features on production and community structure is required, complementary strategies are offered. Either one may choose to increase resolution of models up to the very fine mesoscale features scale (a few kms) for the high end, or to include a parametric representation of eddies for the low end.

Can we predict the direction of marine primary production change under global warming

A global Earth System model is employed to investigate the role of direct temperature effects in the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. While model configurations with and without consideration of explicit temperature effects can reproduce observed current biogeochemical tracer distributions and estimated carbon export about equally well, carbon flow through the model ecosystem reveals strong temperature sensitivities. Depending on whether biological processes are assumed temperature sensitive or not, simulated marine net primary production (NPP) increases or decreases under projected climate change driven by a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario for the 21st century. This suggests that indirect temperature effects such as changes in the supply of nutrients and light are not the only relevant factors to be considered when modeling the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. A better understanding of direct temperature effects on marine ecosystems is required before even the direction of change in NPP can be reliably predicted.