Andreas Westergaard-Nielsen

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Seasonal Snow Cover in Northeast Greenland from in Situ Observations

ABSTRACT In this study, we quantified the spatiotemporal variability and trends in observations of multiple snow characteristics in High Arctic Zackenberg in Northeast Greenland through 18 years. Annual premelt snow-depth observations collected in 2005–2014 along an elevation gradient showed significant differences in snow depth between vegetation types. The seasonal snow cover was characterized by strong interannual variability in the Zackenberg region. Particularly the timing of snow-cover onset and melt, and the annual maximum accumulation, varied up to an order of magnitude between years. Hence, apart from the snow-cover fraction registered annually on 10 June, which exhibits a significant trend of -2.3% per year over the 18-year period, we found little evidence of significant trends in the observed snow-cover characteristics. Moreover, SnowModel results for the Zackenberg region confirmed that the pronounced interannual variability in snow precipitations has persisted in this High Arctic setting since 1979 and may have masked potential temporal trends. In exception, a significant difference in interannual variability of snow-cover onset timing was observed through the period 1997–2014, which in the recent period since 2006 was 7.3 times more variable.

Greenlandic sheep farming controlled by vegetation response today and at the end of the 21st Century

The spatial heterogeneity of vegetation greenness and potential aboveground biomass production for sheep farming has been assessed for Southwest Greenland. A Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) model was set up to identify biophysical constraints on the present spatial distribution of farms and fields based on all existing sheep farms in a detailed study area. Time-integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI) from MODIS and observed temperatures (2000-2012) have been combined with a downscaled regional climate model (HIRHAM5) in order to establish a spatio-temporal model for future TI-NDVI, thus forecasting the dry biomass production available for sheep farming in steps of decades for the next 85 years. The model has been validated against observed biomass production and the present distribution of fields. Future biomass production is used to discuss the expansion of current farms and to identify new suitable areas for sheep farming. Interestingly, new suitable areas are located where sheep farms were situated during the Norse era more than 1000 years ago; areas which have been abandoned for the past 500 years. The study highlights the potential of establishing new areas for sheep farming in Arctic Greenland, where current and future climate changes are markedly amplified compared to global trends. However, for the study area the MCE model clearly indicates that the potential of expansion relies on contemporary infrastructural development.

Delta progradation in Greenland driven by increasing glacial mass loss

Climate changes are pronounced in Arctic regions and increase the vulnerability of the Arctic coastal zone. For example, increases in melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and reductions in sea ice and permafrost distribution are likely to alter coastal morphodynamics. The deltas of Greenland are largely unaffected by human activity, but increased freshwater runoff and sediment fluxes may increase the size of the deltas, whereas increased wave activity in ice-free periods could reduce their size, with the net impact being unclear until now. Here we show that southwestern Greenland deltas were largely stable from the 1940s to 1980s, but prograded (that is, sediment deposition extended the delta into the sea) in a warming Arctic from the 1980s to 2010s. Our results are based on the areal changes of 121 deltas since the 1940s, assessed using newly discovered aerial photographs and remotely sensed imagery. We find that delta progradation was driven by high freshwater runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet coinciding with periods of open water. Progradation was controlled by the local initial environmental conditions (that is, accumulated air temperatures above 0 °C per year, freshwater runoff and sea ice in the 1980s) rather than by local changes in these conditions from the 1980s to 2010s at each delta. This is in contrast to a dominantly eroding trend of Arctic sedimentary coasts along the coastal plains of Alaska, Siberia and western Canada, and to the spatially variable patterns of erosion and accretion along the large deltas of the main rivers in the Arctic. Our results improve the understanding of Arctic coastal evolution in a changing climate, and reveal the impacts on coastal areas of increasing ice mass loss and the associated freshwater runoff and lengthening of open-water periods.

Climate change and the loss of organic archaeological deposits in the Arctic

The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the global average with overlooked consequences for the preservation of the rich cultural and environmental records that have been stored for millennia in archaeological deposits. In this article, we investigate the oxic degradation of different types of organic archaeological deposits located in different climatic zones in West and South Greenland. The rate of degradation is investigated based on measurements of O2 consumption, CO2 production and heat production at different temperatures and water contents. Overall, there is good consistency between the three methods. However, at one site the, O2 consumption is markedly higher than the CO2 production, highlighting the importance of combining several measures when assessing the vulnerability of organic deposits. The archaeological deposits are highly vulnerable to degradation regardless of age, depositional and environmental conditions. Degradation rates of the deposits are more sensitive to increasing temperatures than natural soils and the process is accompanied by a high microbial heat production that correlates significantly with their total carbon content. We conclude that organic archaeology in the Arctic is facing a critical challenge that requires international action.

Contrasting temperature trends across the ice-free part of Greenland

Temperature changes in the Arctic have notable impacts on ecosystem structure and functioning, on soil carbon dynamics, and on the stability of permafrost, thus affecting ecosystem functions and putting man-built infrastructure at risk. Future warming in the Arctic could accelerate important feedbacks in permafrost degradation processes. Therefore it is important to map vulnerable areas most likely to be impacted by temperature changes and at higher risk of degradation, particularly near communities, to assist adaptation to climate change. Currently, these areas are poorly assessed, especially in Greenland. Here we quantify trends in satellite-derived land surface temperatures and modelled air temperatures, validated against observations, across the entire ice-free Greenland. Focus is on the past 30 years, to characterize significant changes and potentially vulnerable regions at a 1 km resolution. We show that recent temperature trends in Greenland vary significantly between seasons and regions and that data with resolutions down to single km2 are critical to map temperature changes for guidance of further local studies and decision-making. Only a fraction of the ice-free Greenland seems vulnerable due to warming when analyzing year 2001–2015, but the most pronounced changes are found in the most populated parts of Greenland. As Greenland represents important gradients of north/south coast/inland/distance to large ice sheets, the conclusions are also relevant in an upscaling to greater Arctic areas.

Plant Traits are Key Determinants in Buffering the Meteorological Sensitivity of Net Carbon Exchanges of Arctic Tundra

The climate sensitivity of carbon (C) cycling in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems is a major unknown in the Earth system. There is a lack of knowledge about the mechanisms that drive the interactions between photosynthesis, respiration, and changes in C stocks across full annual cycles in Arctic tundra. We use a calibrated and validated model (soil-plant-atmosphere; SPA) to estimate net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco), and internal C processing across eight full years. SPAs carbon flux estimates are validated with observational data obtained from the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring program in West Greenland tundra. Overall, the model explained 73%, 73%, and 50% of the variance in NEE, GPP, and Reco, respectively, and 85% of the plant greenness variation. Flux data highlighted the insensitivity of growing season NEE to interannual meteorological variability, due to compensatory responses of photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration. In this modelling study, we show that this NEE buffering is the case also for full annual cycles. We show through a sensitivity analysis that plant traits related to nitrogen are likely key determinants in the compensatory response, through simulated links to photosynthesis and plant respiration. Interestingly, we found a similar temperature sensitivity of the trait-flux couplings for GPP and Reco, suggesting that plant traits drive the stabilization of NEE. Further, model analysis indicated that wintertime periods decreased the C sink by 60%, mostly driven by litter heterotrophic respiration. This result emphasizes the importance of wintertime periods and allows a more comprehensive understanding of full annual C dynamics. (Less)