Andrej Ficko

Benefits from and threats to European treeline ecosystem services: an exploratory study of stakeholders and governance

The concept of ecosystem services (ES) is being increasingly applied in environmental governance and science. To safeguard key ES in changing and complex social–ecological systems such as treeline areas, we need to (1) map key ES in different types of treeline landscapes, (2) identify the stakeholders benefiting from and threatening ES, and (3) examine how ES could be governed more sustainably. We explore these questions in European treeline areas by using quantitative and qualitative social science techniques to analyse responses from a survey of local scientific experts in 20 altitudinal and polar treeline areas in 15 European countries. In contrast to the prevalent consideration of treeline areas as a single type of a social–ecological system, we show that European treeline areas can be divided into two types that significantly differ in the delivery of ES. Our analyses allowed us to categorize stakeholders according to their benefits from and threats to ES; “Green key players” formed the most numerous group, while smaller number of stakeholder groups was categorized as “Harmless crowd”, “Occasional stressors”, and “Risky users”. However, behaviour of stakeholders is very much site-specific. Of 595 pairs of stakeholders analysed, we found <5 EU-wide “Allies” and “Opponents”. Recommendations for improved governance include adjusting governance instruments to specific problems in divergent treeline systems and creating participatory structures where stakeholders better interact with scientists and can genuinely influence management decisions.

How pragmatism in environmental science and policy can undermine sustainability transformations: the case of marginalized mountain areas under climate and land-use change

Global warming, land-use change, mass tourism and a deteriorating socio-economic situation pose serious threats to the sustainability of mountain areas. The future development of these areas could be an example of the Great Transition scenario. Based on iterative and collaborative discussions with 60 treeline experts, we (1) envisioned plausible futures of treeline ecosystems in Europe and (2) explored the role of pragmatism in scenario development and use. The three global change scenario classes (Conventional Worlds, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and four European scenarios (Economy First, Fortress Europe, Policy Rules, and Sustainability Eventually) were downscaled using the drivers-pressures-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework. The scenarios that emerged, i.e., Global Markets, Self-sufficient Economies, Tyranny of Climate Governance, and Sustainable Use of Ecosystem Services, show that pragmatism can have either a propitious role or pernicious role in scenario analysis. Instead of being truly honest brokers, scenario producers are likely to manipulate, reconstruct, and change scientific knowledge to avoid socially and politically undesired trajectories. We showed by mathematical optimization that scenario users are likely to miss the Sustainable Use of Ecosystem Services scenario if they search within the pragmatic decision space which optimally justifies the two pre-existing global policies: climate policy and economic growth. We conclude that pernicious pragmatism leads to “the trap of the day”—a tendency of both users and producers of scenarios to use pre-existing policy agendas and scientific narratives as a pretext to promote their own objectives instead of being open to transformation in science and policy.

Stakeholder analysis in the biomass energy development based on the experts’ opinions: the example of Triglav National Park in Slovenia

Abstract The paper presents a method for identifying and classifying local stakeholders involved in renewable energy development. The method is based on the expert assessment and comprises three main steps: (1) identification of the independent experts considering their expertise and knowledge of the local context; (2) identification of the local stakeholders based on expert assessment; and (3) analytical categorisation of stakeholders taking into account the professional relationship network. Using forest biomass (bioenergy) production as example, the stakeholder analysis is illustrated on the case study of Triglav National Park, which is characterised by a high potential of woody biomass production and a large number of stakeholders involved in land use and management. The first stage of stakeholder analysis identifies the key stakeholders to be involved in bioenergy development, through a survey with local experts. The results highlight eight key stakeholders and several primary and secondary stakeholders that should be involved to ensure socially acceptable decision-making about the renewable energy development in the Triglav National Park.

Ensuring the validity of private forest owner typologies by controlling for response style bias and the robustness of statistical methods

In survey-based segmentation of forest owners, two threats to the validity of results have largely been ignored: (1) response style bias and (2) the robustness of the statistical methods. This study demonstrates response style bias detection, presents an approach for correcting for acquiescence – the systematic tendency to agree with survey items, and explores the sensitivity of a probabilistic clustering algorithm to requirements for the validity of the typology. Structural equation modeling and Monte Carlo data generation techniques were employed to detect acquiescence and estimate its effect on construct validity. A survey of the relevance of management information for private forest owners (N = 364) was used as an example. Although acquiescence was confirmed, it had minor effect on the results and no effect on the substantive construct. Uncertainty about the number of forest owner types and membership can be reduced by using probabilistic clustering and observing the number of clusters while changing the requirements for the validity of clusters. The expectation maximization algorithm proved to be robust even to stringent requirements for the validity of clusters. By controlling for response style and the robustness of statistical methods, the validity of private forest owner typologies can be better ensured.

Interactions Between Forest Owners and Their Forests

More than half of the forest land in Europe is privately owned, and ownership structure is known to have implications for management, production of timber and other forest products and services that support the transformation towards a green economy. This chapter provides examples of how we can gain knowledge about the forest and forest owner/user relationship from a structural point of view. Sweden is taken as an example because of the accessibility of continuous data on forest conditions, ownership and demographic data. It is concluded that the pace of change in ownership structure and forest management behaviour is slow. Further, neither the ongoing migration, urbanisation, ageing population nor the increased proportion of women seems to reduce the willingness to manage and harvest.