Andrew C. Spieler

Price Premium and Foreclosure Risk

Many previous studies identify loan, property, borrower and environmental factors that impact the probability of foreclosure. Implicit in these studies is the assumption that the property was purchased at fair value. We question this assumption based on several empirical findings regarding property value uncertainty. In contrast to previous research, we explicitly quantify the price premium from a hedonic pricing model. Using a comprehensive database of real estate transactions in Singapore during 1989-2000, we document a price premium associated with properties that are subsequently foreclosed based on actual sales transactions. In addition, we find that the premium paid at purchase significantly increases the probability of foreclosure. These results are robust and continue to hold after controlling for other property-specific factors, time-varying macroeconomic conditions, alternative model specifications and definitions of price premium. Copyright 2006 American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

Auctions and Land Values: An Experimental Analysis

Although urban land development is a well-researched area, there has been inadequate research on the allocation mechanism for land. This paper offers a new perspective on the effects of the auction mechanism on land values. By appealing to an experimental setting to examine the bidding behaviour of developers in repeated first-price sealed bid (FPSB) auctions where resolution of price uncertainty (development revenue) is deferred, it is shown that overbidding is pervasive. Participants consistently shave expected profit margins in order to secure land for development. The actual profit margins reported in all experiments are significantly lower than the suggested benchmark made known before the experiments. Consequently, participants tend to experience smaller ex post profits relative to ex ante expectations. However, we find that repeated bidding does mitigate overbidding to some extent, as evidenced by lower differences in the winning bid to the second-highest bid. Convergence in the range of bids occurs over time, but only significantly so when public information in terms of an expectation of the future property price, is provided. This study offers interesting policy implications for urban land development.

Elective Stock Dividends and REITs: Evidence from the Financial Crisis

In response to the recent financial crisis, the U.S. Government introduced new rules which allow Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) to issue elective stock dividends (ESDs), i.e., noncash dividends, to satisfy their distribution requirements. The purported goal of these rules was to provide temporary relief to REITs facing cash flow problems. We investigate how the introduction of these rules affects dividend policy of REITs. Surprisingly, we document that only 17 REITs chose to issue elective stock dividends. We examine the characteristics of these REITs and find that their cash flows are similar to REITs that do not select these dividends. This suggests that cash flow problems are unlikely to be the primary determinant of the ESD issuance decision. Instead, our findings indicate the decision to pay ESDs is related to the level of loans that are close to maturity, REIT size, growth prospects and poor performance during the financial crisis. Furthermore, we find that the same factors determine the ratio, amount and frequency of stock dividends issued by these REITs. We also examine the response of shareholders to ESDs announcements and find positive abnormal returns surrounding these dividend announcements.