Andrew D. Wickert

Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earths surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

Gradual demise of a thin southern Laurentide ice sheet recorded by Mississippi drainage

At the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), about 21,000 years before present, land-based ice sheets held enough water to reduce global mean sea level by 130 metres. Yet after decades of study, major uncertainties remain as to the distribution of that ice. Here we test four reconstructions of North American deglacial ice-sheet history by quantitatively connecting them to high-resolution oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from the Gulf of Mexico using a water mixing model. For each reconstruction, we route meltwater and seasonal runoff through the time-evolving Mississippi drainage basin, which co-evolves with ice geometry and changing topography as ice loads deform the solid Earth and produce spatially variable sea level in a process known as glacial isostatic adjustment. The δ18O records show that the Mississippi-drained southern Laurentide ice sheet contributed only 5.4 ± 2.1 metres to global sea level rise, of which 0.66 ± 0.07 metres were released during the meltwater pulse 1A event 14,650–14,310 years before present, far less water than previously thought. In contrast, the three reconstructions based on glacial isostatic adjustment overpredict the δ18O-based post-LGM meltwater volume by a factor of 1.6 to 3.6. The fourth reconstruction, which is based on ice physics, has a low enough Mississippi-routed meltwater discharge to be consistent with δ18O constraints, but also contains the largest LGM North American ice volume. This suggests that modelling based on ice physics may be the best way of matching isotopic records while also sequestering enough water in the North American ice sheets to match the observed LGM sea level fall.

Collapse of the North American ice saddle 14,500 years ago caused widespread cooling and reduced ocean overturning circulation

Collapse of ice sheets can cause significant sea level rise and widespread climate change. We examine the climatic response to meltwater generated by the collapse of the Cordilleran-Laurentide ice saddle (North America) ~14.5 thousand years ago (ka) using a high-resolution drainage model coupled to an ocean-atmosphere-vegetation general circulation model. Equivalent to 7.26 m global mean sea level rise in 340 years, the meltwater caused a 6 sverdrup weakening of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and widespread Northern Hemisphere cooling of 1–5°C. The greatest cooling is in the Atlantic sector high latitudes during Boreal winter (by 5–10°C), but there is also strong summer warming of 1–3°C over eastern North America. Following recent suggestions that the saddle collapse was triggered by the Bolling warming event at ~14.7–14.5 ka, we conclude that this robust submillennial mechanism may have initiated the end of the warming and/or the Older Dryas cooling through a forced AMOC weakening.

Glacial isostatic uplift of the European Alps

Following the last glacial maximum (LGM), the demise of continental ice sheets induced crustal rebound in tectonically stable regions of North America and Scandinavia that is still ongoing. Unlike the ice sheets, the Alpine ice cap developed in an orogen where the measured uplift is potentially attributed to tectonic shortening, lithospheric delamination and unloading due to deglaciation and erosion. Here we show that ∼90% of the geodetically measured rock uplift in the Alps can be explained by the Earth’s viscoelastic response to LGM deglaciation. We modelled rock uplift by reconstructing the Alpine ice cap, while accounting for postglacial erosion, sediment deposition and spatial variations in lithospheric rigidity. Clusters of excessive uplift in the Rhône Valley and in the Eastern Alps delineate regions potentially affected by mantle processes, crustal heterogeneity and active tectonics. Our study shows that even small LGM ice caps can dominate present-day rock uplift in tectonically active regions.

The ALog: Inexpensive, Open-Source, Automated Data Collection in the Field

A consistent problem in field measurements is that they are often too sparse, too infrequent, and too expensive. These are, of course, connected: scientific budgets are being squeezed at the same time as we increasingly recognize nonlinear interactions and nonlocal phenomena that defy simple statistics in our understanding of nature. While some advances in data logging technology have been made, by and large, automated field data collection still involves heavy, expensive equipment that is programmed in proprietary languages and connects primarily to branded sensors that can cost several times the amount of a generic equivalent.

Acceleration of Northern Ice Sheet Melt Induces AMOC Slowdown and Northern Cooling in Simulations of the Early Last Deglaciation

The cause of a rapid change in Atlantic Ocean circulation and northern cooling at the onset of Heinrich Stadial 1 ~18.5 ka is unclear. Previous studies have simulated the event using ice sheet and/or iceberg meltwater forcing, but these idealized freshwater fluxes have been unrealistically large. Here, we use a different approach, driving a high‐resolution drainage network model with a recent time‐resolved global paleo ice sheet reconstruction to generate a realistic meltwater forcing. We input this flux to the HadCM3 climate model without adjusting the timing or amplitude and find that an acceleration in northern ice sheet melting (up to ~7.5 m kyr‾¹ global mean sea level rise equivalent) triggers a 20% reduction in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The simulated pattern of ocean circulation and climate change matches an array of palaeoclimate and ocean circulation reconstructions for the onset of Heinrich Stadial 1, both in terms of rates and magnitude of change. This is achieved with a meltwater flux that matches constraints on sea level changes and ice sheet evolution around 19‐18 ka. Since the rates of melting are similar to those projected for Greenland by 2200, constraining the melt rates and magnitude of climate change during Heinrich Stadial 1 would provide an important test of climate model sensitivity to future ice sheet melt.

Climatic Effect of Antarctic Meltwater Overwhelmed by Concurrent Northern Hemispheric Melt

Records indicate that 14,500 years ago, sea level rose by 12–22 m in under 340 years. However, the source of the sea level rise remains contentious, partly due to the competing climatic impact of different hemispheric contributions. Antarctic meltwater could indirectly strengthen the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), causing northern warming, whereas Northern Hemisphere ice sheet meltwater has the opposite effect. This story has recently become more intriguing, due to increasing evidence for sea level contributions from both hemispheres. Using a coupled climate model with freshwater forcing, we demonstrate that the climatic influence of southern‐sourced meltwater is overridden by northern sources even when the Antarctic flux is double the North American contribution. This is because the Southern Ocean is quickly resalinized by Antarctic Circumpolar water. These results imply that the pattern of surface climate changes caused by ice sheet melting cannot be used to fingerprint the hemispheric source of the meltwater.

Ancient record of changing flows from wave ripple defects

1 Department of Earth, Atmospheric & Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA 2 Department of Geology, Colorado College, Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA 3 Department of Earth Sciences and Saint Anthony Falls Laboratory, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA † Current address: Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), Potsdam, Germany *Current address: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

Effects of deep-seated versus shallow hillslope processes on cosmogenic 10Be concentrations in fluvial sand and gravel: The effect of hillslope processes on 10Be concentrations

Terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) concentrations in fluvial sediment, from which denudation rates are commonly inferred, can be affected by hillslope processes. TCN concentrations in gravel and sand may differ if localized, deep-excavation processes (e.g. landslides, debris flows) affect the contributing catchment, whereas the TCN concentrations of sand and gravel tend to be more similar when diffusional processes like soil creep and sheetwash are dominant. To date, however, no study has systematically compared TCN concentrations in different detrital grain-size fractions with a detailed inventory of hillslope processes from the entire catchment. Here we compare concentrations of the TCN Be in 20 detrital sand samples from the Quebrada del Toro (southern Central Andes, Argentina) to a hillslope-process inventory from each contributing catchment. Our comparison reveals a shift from lowslope gullying and scree production in slowly denuding, low-slope areas to steep-slope gullying and landsliding in fast-denuding, steep areas. To investigate whether the nature of hillslope processes (locally excavating or more uniformly denuding) may be reflected in a comparison of the Be concentrations of sand and gravel, we define the normalized sand-gravel index (NSGI) as the Be-concentration difference between sand and gravel divided by their summed concentrations. We find a positive, linear relationship between the NSGI and median slope, such that our NSGI values broadly reflect the shift in hillslope processes from lowslope gullying and scree production to steep-slope gullying and landsliding. Higher NSGI values characterize regions affected by steep-slope gullying or landsliding. We relate the large scatter in the relationship, which is exhibited particularly in low-slope areas, to reduced hillslope-channel connectivity and associated transient sediment storage within those catchments. While high NSGI values in well-connected catchments are a reliable signal of deep-excavation processes, hillslope excavation processes may not be reliably recorded by NSGI values where sediment experiences transient storage.

Corrigendum: Glacial isostatic uplift of the European Alps

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/ncomms13382.