Andrew E. Dessler

On the control of stratospheric humidity

We present a hypothesis on the dehydration and transfer of air from the tropical troposphere into the stratosphere. The hypothesis is based on the existence of a thick “tropopause layer,” in which vertical and horizontal mixing are both significant. Air is rapidly dehydrated upon entering this layer in vigorous convective overshoots, then slowly ascends through the layer before fully entering the stratosphere. Dehydration and genuine entry into the stratosphere are separate processes that happen on much different time scales.

A Model for Transport across the Tropical Tropopause

A model of convective and advective transport across the tropical tropopause is described. In this model overshooting convective turrets inject dehydrated tropospheric air into a tropical ‘‘tropopause layer’’ (TTL) bounded approximately by the 50- and 150-hPa surfaces, a layer similar to the ‘‘entrainment zone’’ at the top of the planetary boundary layer. The overshooting process occurs only in limited regions. In the TTL, mixtures of overshooting and ambient air undergo buoyancy-driven settling, then slowly loft through the TTL and eventually enter the main stratosphere throughout the Tropics. It is found that for reasonable parameter settings the combined action of convection, isentropic mixing, and advection by the large-scale circulation in the model can produce realistic water vapor and ozone profiles while balancing the energy budget. Some of the observed peculiarities that can be simulated are (i) the widespread absence of vapor saturation at the tropopause despite tropical mean upward motion, (ii) an ozone minimum below the mean tropopause, and (iii) the typical location of stratiform cloud tops below the mean tropopause. In contrast to inferences from typical ‘‘cold trap’’ models, the relative humidity of air crossing the tropopause is found to be sensitive to ice microphysics.

A Determination of the Cloud Feedback from Climate Variations over the Past Decade

Positive Message Climate warming affects both cloud number and cloud properties, which in turn affect warming itself, creating a cloud-climate feedback that complicates predictions of the amount of warming caused by increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide. This feedback has generally been considered to be positive, but so far we have only a qualitative idea of the effect. Dessler (p. 1523; see the news story by Kerr) estimated the magnitude of the feedback by analyzing 10 years of satellite data on the flux of radiation through the top of the atmosphere. As expected, the feedback is positive and within the canonical range of estimates of how much warming will occur for a doubling of atmospheric CO2: 2°C to 4.5°C. The climate-cloud feedback is positive, supporting current ideas about how atmospheric carbon dioxide affects global temperature. Estimates of Earths climate sensitivity are uncertain, largely because of uncertainty in the long-term cloud feedback. I estimated the magnitude of the cloud feedback in response to short-term climate variations by analyzing the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget from March 2000 to February 2010. Over this period, the short-term cloud feedback had a magnitude of 0.54 ± 0.74 (2σ) watts per square meter per kelvin, meaning that it is likely positive. A small negative feedback is possible, but one large enough to cancel the climate’s positive feedbacks is not supported by these observations. Both long- and short-wave components of short-term cloud feedback are also likely positive. Calculations of short-term cloud feedback in climate models yield a similar feedback. I find no correlation in the models between the short- and long-term cloud feedbacks.

New fast response photofragment fluorescence hygrometer for use on the NASA ER‐2 and the Perseus remotely piloted aircraft

We have developed an in situ instrument to measure water vapor on the NASA ER‐2 as a prototype for use on the Perseus remotely piloted aircraft. It utilizes photofragment fluorescence throughout the stratosphere and the upper to middle troposphere (mixing ratios from 2 to 300 ppmv) with simultaneous absorption measurements in the middle troposphere (water vapor concentrations ≳5×1014 mol/cc). The instrument flew successfully on the NASA ER‐2 aircraft during the 1993 CEPEX and SPADE campaigns. The 2σ measurement precision for a 10 s integration time, limited by variation in the background from scattered solar radiation, is ±6% and the data were tightly correlated with other long‐lived stratospheric tracers throughout the SPADE mission. Its accuracy is estimated to be ±10%, based on laboratory calibrations using a range of water vapor concentrations independently determined by both standard gas addition techniques and by absorption. This accuracy is confirmed by in‐flight absorption measurements in the trop...

Stratospheric water vapor feedback

Significance We show observational evidence for a stratospheric water vapor feedback—a warmer climate increases stratospheric water vapor, and because stratospheric water vapor is itself a greenhouse gas, this leads to further warming. An estimate of its magnitude from a climate model yields a value of +0.3 W/(m2⋅K), suggesting that this feedback plays an important role in our climate system. We show here that stratospheric water vapor variations play an important role in the evolution of our climate. This comes from analysis of observations showing that stratospheric water vapor increases with tropospheric temperature, implying the existence of a stratospheric water vapor feedback. We estimate the strength of this feedback in a chemistry–climate model to be +0.3 W/(m2⋅K), which would be a significant contributor to the overall climate sensitivity. One-third of this feedback comes from increases in water vapor entering the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause layer, with the rest coming from increases in water vapor entering through the extratropical tropopause.

The Distribution of Tropical Thin Cirrus Clouds Inferred from Terra MODIS Data

Thin cirrus clouds (with optical depths t K 1) play a potentially important role in the earth’s atmosphere. However, their tenuous nature makes them difficult to detect, and as a result there are few quantitative, global analyses of them. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) on board the Terra satellite has a channel at 1.375 mm that is specifically designed to detect these clouds, and can measure optical depths as low as 0.02 with an uncertainty factor of 2. During two 3-day periods from December 2000 and June 2001, about one-third of the pixels flagged as cloud free by the MODIS cloud mask are shown to contain detectible thin cirrus. These thin cirrus generally have optical depths below ;0.05 and appear with greater frequency and optical depth near deep convection.

A reexamination of the “stratospheric fountain” hypothesis

We reexamine the “stratospheric fountain” hypothesis by comparing estimates of the annually and zonally averaged volume mixing ratio (vmr) of water vapor entering the stratosphere to annually and zonally averaged estimates of the saturation vmr of the tropical tropopause-region. We find that the vmr of water vapor entering the stratosphere (3.8±0.3 ppmv) agrees well with the saturation vmr of the tropical tropopause-region (4.0±0.8 ppmv). Consequently, our analysis provides no support for the “stratospheric fountain” hypothesis, which required troposphere-to-stratosphere transport to occur preferentially in regions where the tropical tropopause is colder than average.

Mechanisms controlling water vapor in the lower stratosphere: “A tale of two stratospheres”

We present an analysis of the mechanisms controlling stratospheric water vapor based on in situ profiles made at 37.4°N and at altitudes up to 20 km. The stratosphere can be conveniently divided into two air masses : the overworld (potential temperature θ>380 K) and the lowermost stratosphere (θ<380). Our data support the canonical theory that air primarily enters the overworld by passing through the tropical tropopause. The low water vapor mixing ratios in the overworld, a few parts per million by volume (ppmv), are determined by the low temperatures encountered at the tropical tropopause, as well as oxidation of methane and molecular hydrogen. Air enters the lowermost stratosphere both by diabatically descending from the overworld across the 380-K potential temperature surface and by passing through the extratropical tropopause. Air parcels crossing the extratropical tropopause experience higher temperatures than air crossing the tropical tropopause, allowing higher water vapor in the lowermost stratosphere (tens of ppmv) than in the overworld. Our data are consistent with the pathway for air crossing the extratropical tropopause being isentropic advection from lower latitudes, although we cannot exclude contributions from other paths.

Water Vapor Feedback in the Tropical Upper Troposphere: Model Results and Observations

The sensitivity of water vapor in the tropical upper troposphere to changes in surface temperature is examined using a single-column, radiative‐convective model that includes couplings between the moistening effects of convective detrainment, the drying effects from clear-air subsidence, and radiative heating and cooling from water vapor. Equilibrium states of this model show that as the surface warms, changes in the vertical distribution and temperature of detraining air from tropical convection lead to higher water vapor mixing ratios in the upper troposphere. However, the increase in mixing ratio is not as large as the increase in saturation mixing ratio due to warmer environmental temperatures, so that relative humidity decreases. These changes in upper-tropospheric humidity with respect to surface temperature are consistent with observed interannual variations in relative humidity and water vapor mixing ratio near 215 mb as measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder and the Halogen Occultation Experiment. The analysis suggests that models that maintain a fixed relative humidity above 250 mb are likely overestimating the contribution made by these levels to the water vapor feedback.

In situ observations in aircraft exhaust plumes in the lower stratosphere at midlatitudes

Instrumentation on the NASA ER-2 high-altitude aircraft has been used to observe engine exhaust from the same aircraft while operating in the lower stratosphere. Encounters with the exhaust plume occurred approximately 10 min after emission with spatial scales near 2 km and durations of up to 10 s. Measurements include total reactive nitrogen, NO(y), the component species NO and NO2, CO2, H2O, CO, N2O, condensation nuclei, and meteorological parameters. The integrated amounts of CO2 and H2O during the encounters are consistent with the stoichiometry of fuel combustion (1:1 molar). Emission indices (EI) for NO(x) (= NO + NO2), CO, and N2O are calculated using simultaneous measurements of CO2. EI values for NO(x) near 4 g/(kg fuel) are in good agreement with values scaled from limited ground-based tests of the ER-2 engine. Non-NO(x) species comprise less than about 20% of emitted reactive nitrogen, consistent with model evaluations. In addition to demonstrating the feasibility of aircraft plume detection, these results increase confidence in the projection of emissions from current and proposed supersonic aircraft fleets and hence in the assessment of potential long-term changes in the atmosphere.