Andrew J. Buck

Do casinos enhance crime

This article analyzes the possible impact of the 1978 introduction of casino gambling in Atlantic City on crime in that region. Pooled time-series cross-sectional data from sixty-four localities for the years 1972 to 1984 were used to investigate four types of property crimes and total violent crimes. The results suggest spatial crime spill-over from Atlantic City, where violent crime diminished most rapidly, followed by robberies and auto thefts. Larcenies declined least rapidly. The greatest post-casino crime increase was observed for violent crimes and auto thefts and the least for burglaries. A one percent increase in the distance from Atlantic City was associated with greater reduction in all crimes than was a one percent increase in police outlays.

Using the Delphi process to analyze social policy implementation: A post hoc case from vocational rehabilitation

This study uses a Policy Delphi to discern differences in perspective among and within groups responsible for formulating and implementing vocational rehabilitation policy. Four groups of players were chosen for our analysis: government officials, academics, directors of rehabilitation centers, and the staff who interface with program participants. Significant differences were found between the groups regarding the relative importance of possible legislative goals. This suggests that the failure of vocational rehabilitation policy to promote a work agenda may be attributed to a lack of consensus among policy implementors. The Delphi technique could help policy planners understand the different perspectives within the implementation community, and hence craft more realistic legislation.

BURGLAR ALARMS AND THE CHOICE BEHAVIOR OF BURGLARS: A SUBURBAN PHENOMENON

Abstract Employing observation and deduction, the present study addressed the question of why some homes in a community are more likely targets for burglary. The period of observation spanned two-and-a-half years, in three Philadelphia suburbs. The townships differ in population density, distance from the city, and affluence. The deduced burglary model entails four decision points for the burglar: choice of neighborhood, choice of street, choice of property, and choice of point of entry. The neighborhood is chosen for its proximity to thoroughfares that are familiar to the burglar. Cul de sacs abutted by a wooded area or an abandoned railroad right-of-way, which offer opportunities for concealment, were targeted more frequently than other streets by burglars. Homes with high value and few target hardening attributes were more likely targets than other homes. Most burglars entered the targeted home through a first floor doorway. All other things equal, the presence of an alarm reduces the victimization rate. The alarm reduces the victimization rate to a greater degree as home value increases.

Casinos, Crime, and Real Estate Values: Do They Relate?:

This study analyzes the effect of a new large export-based industry on crime in its region, and in turn on property values. Urban economic models suggest that, ceteris paribus, land values diminish with distance from a central place which “produces” employment, income and other amenities. The new industry has the negative byproduct of crime, which is hypothesized to have a reversed, although systematic effect, on land values. Thus, theoretically, the net effect of (dis)amenities as a function of distance from the central city is ambiguous. Applying the model to casinos in Atlantic City shows that the frequency of violent crimes, burglaries, and robberies diminish with distance and appear to have a depressing effect on property values especially in localities accessible to the central city. The negative effect of crime diminishes with distance. The effect on property values appears to be significantly higher in the postcasino relative to the precasino era. However, the positive effects of the central city on real estate values diminish with distance. Thus development and crime affect property values inversely as a function of distance. The discounted value of the cost of crime resulting from casinos, as reflected in unrealized assessed real estate valuation, appears to be on average 24 million dollars per square mile in the 12 accessible localities, and 11.2 million dollars per square mile in the 52 less accessible localities.

The Natural Rate of Crime by Type of Community

With the pathbreaking works of Becker and Lewis on population [1974] and Becker on the family [1974] and crime [1968], it appeared that economics was on the threshold of a period of scholastic hegemony. In the intervening years, that dream has not been realized. At least in the case of the crime literature, that failure is due in large part to the failure of economic theory to fit the observable facts. In the original papers by Becker [1968] and Ehrlich [1971], criminal behavior was modeled as a problem in time allocation in which the decision to commit crime was essentially equivalent to the purchase of a lottery ticket. In the empirical literature based on these models, there was a leap of faith imputing a monotone increasing relationship between the time allocated to illegal behavior and the incidence of crime. Several recent papers have corrected these mistakes. In Sagi and Weinblatt [1982] and Buck et. al. [1984], criminal behavior is modeled as being rational, but the criminal plans a number of crimes with the knowledge that the probability of successfully perpetrating n crimes is greater than that for a string of n + 1 successful crimes. While the qualitative results of the model do not differ greatly from Becker, the quantitative outcome demonstrates some improvement. Nevertheless, a common failure of the literature on the economics of crime is the inability to accept the deterrence hypothesis. More often than not, in spite of increasingly elaborate Becker-type models, increas? ingly sophisticated econometric techniques, and increasingly detailed data sets, there appears to be a positive relationship between enforce? ment and the incidence of crime; that increased enforcement does not deter criminals is a common conclusion in the empirical literature.1 [See

Appropriate roles for statistical decision theory and hypothesis testing in model selection: An exposition

Abstract Statistical studies in the social sciences often analyze a cross section of communities that are assumed to be homogeneous for certain characteristics. However, the researcher might be interested in investigating the general behavior of all communities as well as particular differences between groups of communities that are spatially separated. This paper suggests, and empirically examines, a procedure which utilizes both statistical decision theory and hypothesis testing and enables us to determine the best model for estimating behavioral relationships for the full sample and for subgroups. The paper examines property crime occurrences in 94 New Jersey suburban communities of Philadelphia utilizing the full sample as well as subgroups within it. The purpose of grouping is to further understand the possible interjurisdictional mobility of urban criminals. The study suggests possible factors that induce urban criminals to commit crimes in the suburbs.

On the normality of relative price changes

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to present evidence on the non-normality of relative price changes in West Germany based on annual data for forty industries [Krengel et al. (n.d.)]. The question of normality is examined only for Germany.

Risk and Return in Small Business Lending: The Case of Commercial Banks

The paper proposes a framework for modeling the risk-return tradeoff faced by institutions lending to small firms. A loan contract is viewed as a vector of several negotiable attributes including the interest rate to be paid, the term of loan, the size of both the loan and collateral, and the rate at which the loan to be repaid. A model of the loan contracting process is outlined. Then some “stylized” facts about the relation between small businesses and their banks are presented. Empirical models of the loan granting decision and of the determinants of the interest margin paid by small firms is estimated.

THE REAL EFFECTS OF PRICE VARIABILITY IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY, 1953-1977 *

Abstract Using a forty industry data set for the years 1953–1977 for the Federal Republic of Germany evidence is presented on the real effects of price variability. Measuring price variability as the expenditure share weighted sum of squared deviations about the rate of inflation, it is found that increased variability reduces real GDP, hours of work, and production employment, while increasing the unemployment rate. Further, it is found that unanticipated inflation has a positive influence on real variables for six different measures of unanticipated inflation. The six inflation series do not support the natural rate hypothesis in that the effect of the expected inflation rate is not always insignificant.

Vandalism of vending machines: Factors that attract professionals and amateurs

Abstract A series of surveys were analyzed to determine how vending machine location and properties affected the likelihood of being vandalized. Two broad categories of vandals were identified, professionals and amateurs, by their vandalism methods. Both types were found to be rational in the sense of being drawn to areas where they could remain anonymous and could escape detection. Professionals were found to respond to the size of the monetary prize. Amateurs were drawn to public areas such as schools, parks, and grocery stores, where they appeared to be motivated by the possibility of an audience. As such, the behavior of amateurs is less amenable to economic analysis than to psychological or sociological study.