Simon Hakim

A critical review of macro models for road accidents

This paper presents a critical review of state-of-the-art macro models for road accidents. Such a review is meant to identify and establish the significance of policy and socioeconomic variables affecting the level of road accidents. The aim is to identify those variables associated with effective policies and interventions to enable decision makers to improve the level of road safety. The variables that appear to affect the number of fatalities or injuries are: vehicle miles travelled (VMT), vehicle population, income (in its various forms), percentage of young drivers, intervention policies such as speed limits, periodic vehicle inspection, and minimum alcohol-drinking age. Viewed critically, the state-of-the-art models being used to explain and predict road accidents are still deficient. One possible approach to correcting this deficiency draws from consumer utility theory, using analytical models built on a newly constructed theoretical framework. Success in estimating such models may improve predictions of road accidents, thus demonstrating the comparative cost effectiveness of alternative intervention policies.

Do casinos enhance crime

This article analyzes the possible impact of the 1978 introduction of casino gambling in Atlantic City on crime in that region. Pooled time-series cross-sectional data from sixty-four localities for the years 1972 to 1984 were used to investigate four types of property crimes and total violent crimes. The results suggest spatial crime spill-over from Atlantic City, where violent crime diminished most rapidly, followed by robberies and auto thefts. Larcenies declined least rapidly. The greatest post-casino crime increase was observed for violent crimes and auto thefts and the least for burglaries. A one percent increase in the distance from Atlantic City was associated with greater reduction in all crimes than was a one percent increase in police outlays.

Using the Delphi process to analyze social policy implementation: A post hoc case from vocational rehabilitation

This study uses a Policy Delphi to discern differences in perspective among and within groups responsible for formulating and implementing vocational rehabilitation policy. Four groups of players were chosen for our analysis: government officials, academics, directors of rehabilitation centers, and the staff who interface with program participants. Significant differences were found between the groups regarding the relative importance of possible legislative goals. This suggests that the failure of vocational rehabilitation policy to promote a work agenda may be attributed to a lack of consensus among policy implementors. The Delphi technique could help policy planners understand the different perspectives within the implementation community, and hence craft more realistic legislation.

BURGLAR ALARMS AND THE CHOICE BEHAVIOR OF BURGLARS: A SUBURBAN PHENOMENON

Abstract Employing observation and deduction, the present study addressed the question of why some homes in a community are more likely targets for burglary. The period of observation spanned two-and-a-half years, in three Philadelphia suburbs. The townships differ in population density, distance from the city, and affluence. The deduced burglary model entails four decision points for the burglar: choice of neighborhood, choice of street, choice of property, and choice of point of entry. The neighborhood is chosen for its proximity to thoroughfares that are familiar to the burglar. Cul de sacs abutted by a wooded area or an abandoned railroad right-of-way, which offer opportunities for concealment, were targeted more frequently than other streets by burglars. Homes with high value and few target hardening attributes were more likely targets than other homes. Most burglars entered the targeted home through a first floor doorway. All other things equal, the presence of an alarm reduces the victimization rate. The alarm reduces the victimization rate to a greater degree as home value increases.

Casinos, Crime, and Real Estate Values: Do They Relate?:

This study analyzes the effect of a new large export-based industry on crime in its region, and in turn on property values. Urban economic models suggest that, ceteris paribus, land values diminish with distance from a central place which “produces” employment, income and other amenities. The new industry has the negative byproduct of crime, which is hypothesized to have a reversed, although systematic effect, on land values. Thus, theoretically, the net effect of (dis)amenities as a function of distance from the central city is ambiguous. Applying the model to casinos in Atlantic City shows that the frequency of violent crimes, burglaries, and robberies diminish with distance and appear to have a depressing effect on property values especially in localities accessible to the central city. The negative effect of crime diminishes with distance. The effect on property values appears to be significantly higher in the postcasino relative to the precasino era. However, the positive effects of the central city on real estate values diminish with distance. Thus development and crime affect property values inversely as a function of distance. The discounted value of the cost of crime resulting from casinos, as reflected in unrealized assessed real estate valuation, appears to be on average 24 million dollars per square mile in the 12 accessible localities, and 11.2 million dollars per square mile in the 52 less accessible localities.

The Delphi process as a tool for decision making: The case of vocational training of people with handicaps☆

Abstract This paper discusses the need for consensus among groups and individuals who are involved in the training of people with handicaps. It is hypothesized that an a priori clear definition of the goals and objectives by decision makers who make the public funds available will provide guidelines to agencies and social workers who actually train the clients. Statements of goals and objectives may lead to more effective program planning and delivery of services. This investigation revealed that neither the legislators nor the executives in the federal government who are charged to oversee these programs were a priori aware about their goals and objectives, nor do they share similar preferences. The authors used a Delphi method to test whether consensus and consistency exist among the groups and within each group. The following groups were investigated: federal legislators, federal and state policy makers, directors of rehabilitation centers, and the staff who actually train the clients. The views of academicians, who are involved in analyzing rehabilitation programs, and teaching rehabilitation personnel are included to provide impartial independent assessment of the legislations goals and objectives. Lack of consensus in the hierarchical chain may be one of the factors that causes inefficient use of resources. Further, if the perception of the legislative goals along the chain varies from that of the legislators, rehabilitation actions that yield outcomes undesired by legislators may result. If it is assumed that legislators exhibit societys preferences, then actions by providers of services that do not coincide with the federal and state legislation will lead to solutions that are not as appealing to society. The study highlights different perceptions of the goals and objectives of the funds channeled to the rehabilitation of handicapped people. It recommends the use of more explicit guidelines and suggests the Delphi method as such a vehicle.

Crime Attraction and Deterrence in Small Communities: Theory and Results

This study analyzes the distribution of property crimes among small communities within a metropolitan area. We have tested whether a pool of criminals operating within a metropolitan area allocates its aggregate activity according to a rational pattern. The theoretical model based on utility maximization shows that, given a set of relatively reasonable assumptions, the number of offenses is positively related to the potential criminal gains and negatively related to police effectiveness. Community characteristics affect the level of criminal activity in each community, an hypothesis which is supported by the empirical results pre sented here. The concentration of wealth and commercial activities attracts crime, whereas the clearance rate deters crime.

Handbook of water and wastewater systems protection

Following the events of 9/11, the Administrator of the US Environmental Protection Agency created the Water Protection Task Force (WPTF), which identified water and wastewater systems as a major area of vulnerability to deliberate attack. The WPTF suggested that there are steps that can be taken to reduce these vulnerabilities and to make it as difficult as possible for potential saboteurs to succeed. The WPTF recommended that be scrutinized with renewed vigor to secure water and wastewater systems against these possible threats. It also recommended that water and wastewater systems have a response plan in place in the event an act of terrorism occurs. The WPTF identified water distribution networks as an area of special vulnerability and highlighted the need for rapid on-line detection methods that are accurate and have a wide detection range. As a result of these recommendations novel technologies from various fields of science and engineering are now addressing water security issues and water and wastewater utilities are looking for innovative solutions. Once such technologies are available, there will be a rapid implementation process that will present many business opportunities for the private sector. However, in addition to terrorist threats water and wastewater systems are inherently vulnerable to natural disasters such as earthquakes and floods. This volume will address the problems associated with both intended terrorist attacks and natural disasters affecting water or wastewater systems. The book is divided into parts based on the kinds of threats facing water and wastewater systems: a direct attack on water and wastewater infrastructure storage reservoirs, and distribution and collection networks; a cyber attack disabling the functionality of the water and wastewater systems or taking over control of key components which might result in system failures; and, a deliberate chemical or biological contaminant injection at one of the water distribution systems nodes. It will examine unique plans, technological and managerial innovations for protecting such systems, and includes descriptions of projects that were implemented to respond to natural disasters. Case studies are presented that discuss existing projects and evaluate their performance, with an emphasis on providing guidelines and techniques that can be implemented by water and wastewater planners and managers to deal with natural and manmade disasters should they occur.

The Natural Rate of Crime by Type of Community

With the pathbreaking works of Becker and Lewis on population [1974] and Becker on the family [1974] and crime [1968], it appeared that economics was on the threshold of a period of scholastic hegemony. In the intervening years, that dream has not been realized. At least in the case of the crime literature, that failure is due in large part to the failure of economic theory to fit the observable facts. In the original papers by Becker [1968] and Ehrlich [1971], criminal behavior was modeled as a problem in time allocation in which the decision to commit crime was essentially equivalent to the purchase of a lottery ticket. In the empirical literature based on these models, there was a leap of faith imputing a monotone increasing relationship between the time allocated to illegal behavior and the incidence of crime. Several recent papers have corrected these mistakes. In Sagi and Weinblatt [1982] and Buck et. al. [1984], criminal behavior is modeled as being rational, but the criminal plans a number of crimes with the knowledge that the probability of successfully perpetrating n crimes is greater than that for a string of n + 1 successful crimes. While the qualitative results of the model do not differ greatly from Becker, the quantitative outcome demonstrates some improvement. Nevertheless, a common failure of the literature on the economics of crime is the inability to accept the deterrence hypothesis. More often than not, in spite of increasingly elaborate Becker-type models, increas? ingly sophisticated econometric techniques, and increasingly detailed data sets, there appears to be a positive relationship between enforce? ment and the incidence of crime; that increased enforcement does not deter criminals is a common conclusion in the empirical literature.1 [See

Securing Water and Wastewater Systems

Direct Threats To Water and Wastewater Infrastructure.- Role of design basis threats in the development, design, and implementation of water security studies and improvement.- Industrial Control System (ICS) Cyber Security for Water and Waste Water Systems.- Implementing Machine Learning Algorithms for Water Quality Event Detection: Theory and Practice.- Sensor Placement Under Nodal Demand Uncertainty for Water Distribution Systems.- Waterborne Transport Modeling of Radioactivity from the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Incident.- Quantitatively assessing water asset reliability in the Netherlands : 15 Years of Experience.- Impact of water resource availability on growth and development.- Water Resource Planning in Peru.- Water scarcity in Asia and its long term water and border security implications for Australia.- Threats to water-related ecosystems.- Water Diversion Projects in China.- Impact of climate change on water security.- Feasibility of using satellite water tanks for protecting drinking water in urban communities in developing countries.- Integrated Total Water Management Systems.- Integrated control and detection of accidental occurrences in water distribution networks.- Plan, Prepare and Safeguard: Water Critical Infrastructure Protection in Australia.- Latvian Practices for Protecting Water and Wastewater Infrastructure.- Austrian activities in protecting critical water infrastructure.