Andrew J. S. Meijers

Representation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the CMIP5 climate models and future changes under warming scenarios

The representation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) in the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is generally improved over CMIP3. The range of modeled transports in the historical (1976–2006) scenario is reduced (90–264 Sv) compared with CMIP3 (33–337 Sv) with a mean of 155 ± 51 Sv. The large intermodel range is associated with significant differences in the ACC density structure. The ACC position is accurately represented at most longitudes, with a small (1.27°) standard deviation in mean latitude. The westerly wind jet driving the ACC is biased too strong and too far north on average. Unlike CMIP3 there is no correlation between modeled ACC latitude and the position of the westerly wind jet. Under future climate forcing scenarios (2070–2099 mean) the modeled ACC transport changes by between −26 to +17 Sv and the ACC shifts polewards (equatorwards) in models where the transport increases (decreases). There is no significant correlation between the ACC position change and that of the westerly wind jet, which shifts polewards and strengthens. The subtropical gyres strengthen and expand southwards, while the change in subpolar gyre area varies between models. An increase in subpolar gyre area corresponds with a decreases in ACC transport and an equatorward shift in the ACC position, and vice versa for a contraction of the gyre area. There is a general decrease in density in the upper 1000 m, particularly equatorwards of the ACC core.

Modeling interannual dense shelf water export in the region of the Mertz Glacier Tongue (1992-2007)

Ocean observations around the Australian-Antarctic basin show the importance of coastal latent heat polynyas near the Mertz Glacier Tongue (MGT) to the formation of Dense Shelf Water (DSW) and associated Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). Here, we use a regional ocean/ice shelf model to investigate the interannual variability of the export of DSW from the Adelie (west of the MGT) and the Mertz (east of the MGT) depressions from 1992 to 2007. The variability in the model is driven by changes in observed surface heat and salt fluxes. The model simulates an annual mean export of DSW through the Adelie sill of about 0.070.06 Sv. From 1992 to 1998, the export of DSW through the Adelie (Mertz) sills peaked at 0.14 Sv (0.29 Sv) during July to November. During periods of mean to strong polynya activity (defined by the surface ocean heat loss), DSW formed in the Adelie depression can spread into the Mertz depression via the cavity under the MGT. An additional simulation, where ocean/ice shelf thermodynamics have been disabled, highlights the fact that models without ocean/ice shelf interaction processes will significantly overestimate rates of DSW export. The melt rates of the MGT are 1.20.4 m yr(-1) during periods of average to strong polynya activity and can increase to 3.81.5 m/yr during periods of sustained weak polynya activity, due to the increased presence of relatively warmer water interacting with the base of the ice shelf. The increased melting of the MGT during a weak polynya state can cause further freshening of the DSW and ultimately limits the production of AABW.

How does Subantarctic Mode Water ventilate the Southern Hemisphere subtropics

In several regions north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), deep wintertime convection refreshes pools of weakly stratified subsurface water collectively referred to as Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW). SAMW ventilates the subtropical thermocline on decadal timescales, providing nutrients for low-latitude productivity and potentially trapping anthropogenic carbon in the deep ocean interior for centuries. In this work, we investigate the spatial structure and timescales of mode water export and associated thermocline ventilation. We use passive tracers in an eddy-permitting, observationally-informed Southern Ocean model to identify the pathways followed by mode waters between their formation regions and the areas where they first enter the subtropics. We find that the pathways followed by the mode water tracers are largely set by the mean geostrophic circulation. Export from the Indian and Central Pacific mode water pools is primarily driven by large-scale gyre circulation, whereas export from the Australian and Atlantic pools is heavily influenced by the ACC. Export from the Eastern Pacific mode water pool is driven by a combination of deep boundary currents and subtropical gyre circulation. More than 50% of each mode water tracer reaches the subtropical thermocline within 50 years, with significant variability between pools. The Eastern Pacific pathway is especially efficient, with roughly 80% entering the subtropical thermocline within 50 years. The time required for 50% of the mode water tracers to leave the Southern Ocean domain varies significantly between mode water pools, from 9 years for the Indian mode water pool to roughly 40 years for the Central Pacific mode water pool

Decadal‐scale thermohaline variability in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean

An enhanced Altimetry Gravest Empirical Mode (AGEM), including both adiabatic and diabatic trends, is developed for the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) south of Africa using updated hydrographic CTD sections, Argo data, and satellite altimetry. This AGEM has improved accuracy compared to traditional climatologies and other proxy methods. The AGEM for the Atlantic Southern Ocean offers an ideal technique to investigate the thermohaline variability over the past two decades in a key region for water mass exchanges and transformation. In order to assess and attribute changes in the hydrography of the region, we separate the changes into adiabatic and diabatic components. Integrated over the upper 2000 dbar of the ACC south of Africa, results show mean adiabatic changes of 0.16 ± 0.11°C decade−1 and 0.006 ± 0.014 decade−1, and diabatic differences of −0.044 ± 0.13°C decade−1 and −0.01 ± 0.017 decade−1 for temperature and salinity, respectively. The trends of the resultant AGEM, that include both adiabatic and diabatic variability (termed AD-AGEM), show a significant increase in the heat content of the upper 2000 dbar of the ACC with a mean warming of 0.12 ± 0.087°C decade−1. This study focuses on the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) mass where negative diabatic trends dominate positive adiabatic differences in the Subantarctic Zone (SAZ), with results indicating a cooling (−0.17°C decade−1) and freshening (−0.032 decade−1) of AAIW in this area, whereas south of the SAZ positive adiabatic and diabatic trends together create a cumulative warming (0.31°C decade−1) and salinification (0.014 decade−1) of AAIW.

Circulation, retention, and mixing of waters within the Weddell-Scotia Confluence, Southern Ocean:The role of stratified Taylor columns

The waters of the Weddell-Scotia Confluence (WSC) lie above the rugged topography of the South Scotia Ridge in the Southern Ocean. Meridional exchanges across the WSC transfer water and tracers between the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) to the north and the subpolar Weddell Gyre to the south. Here, we examine the role of topographic interactions in mediating these exchanges, and in modifying the waters transferred. A case study is presented using data from a free-drifting, intermediate-depth float, which circulated anticyclonically over Discovery Bank on the South Scotia Ridge for close to 4 years. Dimensional analysis indicates that the local conditions are conducive to the formation of Taylor columns. Contemporaneous ship-derived transient tracer data enable estimation of the rate of isopycnal mixing associated with this column, with values of O(1000 m2/s) obtained. Although necessarily coarse, this is of the same order as the rate of isopycnal mixing induced by transient mesoscale eddies within the ACC. A picture emerges of the Taylor column acting as a slow, steady blender, retaining the waters in the vicinity of the WSC for lengthy periods during which they can be subject to significant modification. A full regional float data set, bathymetric data, and a Southern Ocean state estimate are used to identify other potential sites for Taylor column formation. We find that they are likely to be sufficiently widespread to exert a significant influence on water mass modification and meridional fluxes across the southern edge of the ACC in this sector of the Southern Ocean.

Wind-driven export of Weddell Sea slope water

The export of waters from the Weddell Gyre to lower latitudes is an integral component of the southern subpolar contribution to the three-dimensional oceanic circulation. Here we use more than 20 years of repeat hydrographic data on the continental slope on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula and 5 years of bottom lander data on the slope at 1000 m to show the intermittent presence of a relatively cold, fresh, westward flowing current. This is often bottom-intensified between 600 and 2000 dbar with velocities of over 20 cm s−1, transporting an average of 1.5 ± 1.5 Sv. By comparison with hydrography on the continental slope within the Weddell Sea and modeled tracer release experiments we show that this slope current is an extension of the Antarctic Slope Current that has crossed the South Scotia Ridge west of Orkney Plateau. On monthly to interannual time scales the density of the slope current is negatively correlated (r > 0.6 with a significance of over 95%) with eastward wind stress over the northern Weddell Sea, but lagging it by 6–13 months. This relationship holds in both the high temporal resolution bottom lander time series and the 20+ year annual hydrographic occupations and agrees with Weddell Sea export variability observed further east. We compare several alternative hypotheses for this wind stress/export relationship and find that it is most consistent with wind-driven acceleration of the gyre boundary current, possibly modulated by eddy dynamics, and represents a mechanism by which climatic perturbations can be rapidly transmitted as fluctuations in the supply of intermediate-level waters to lower latitudes.

High-latitude ocean ventilation and its role in Earth's climate transitions

The processes regulating ocean ventilation at high latitudes are re-examined based on a range of observations spanning all scales of ocean circulation, from the centimetre scales of turbulence to the basin scales of gyres. It is argued that high-latitude ocean ventilation is controlled by mechanisms that differ in fundamental ways from those that set the overturning circulation. This is contrary to the assumption of broad equivalence between the two that is commonly adopted in interpreting the role of the high-latitude oceans in Earths climate transitions. Illustrations of how recognizing this distinction may change our view of the oceans role in the climate system are offered. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world’.

Critical Southern Ocean climate model biases traced to atmospheric model cloud errors

The Southern Ocean is a pivotal component of the global climate system yet it is poorly represented in climate models, with significant biases in upper-ocean temperatures, clouds and winds. Combining Atmospheric and Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP5/CMIP5) simulations, with observations and equilibrium heat budget theory, we show that across the CMIP5 ensemble variations in sea surface temperature biases in the 40–60°S Southern Ocean are primarily caused by AMIP5 atmospheric model net surface flux bias variations, linked to cloud-related short-wave errors. Equilibration of the biases involves local coupled sea surface temperature bias feedbacks onto the surface heat flux components. In combination with wind feedbacks, these biases adversely modify upper-ocean thermal structure. Most AMIP5 atmospheric models that exhibit small net heat flux biases appear to achieve this through compensating errors. We demonstrate that targeted developments to cloud-related parameterisations provide a route to better represent the Southern Ocean in climate models and projections.The Southern Ocean is critically important for global climate yet poorly represented by climate models. Here the authors trace sea surface temperature biases in this region to cloud-related errors in atmospheric-model simulated surface heat fluxes and provide a pathway to improve the models.

Diapycnal Mixing in the Southern Ocean Diagnosed Using the DIMES Tracer and Realistic Velocity Fields

In this work, we use realistic isopycnal velocities with a 3‐D eddy diffusivity to advect and diffuse a tracer in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, beginning in the Southeast Pacific and progressing through Drake Passage. We prescribe a diapycnal diffusivity which takes one value in the SE Pacific west of 67°W and another value in Drake Passage east of that longitude, and optimize the diffusivities using a cost function to give a best fit to experimental data from the DIMES (Diapycnal and Isopycnal Mixing Experiment in the Southern Ocean) tracer, released near the boundary between the Upper and Lower Circumpolar Deep Water. We find that diapycnal diffusivity is enhanced 20‐fold in Drake Passage compared with the SE Pacific, consistent with previous estimates obtained using a simpler advection‐diffusion model with constant, but different, zonal velocities east and west of 67°W. Our result shows that diapycnal mixing in the ACC plays a significant role in transferring buoyancy within the Meridional Overturning Circulation.