Andrew K. I. Falconar

How Did Zika Virus Emerge in the Pacific Islands and Latin America

ABSTRACT The unexpected emergence of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Pacific Islands and Latin America and its association with congenital Zika virus syndrome (CZVS) (which includes microcephaly) and Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) have stimulated wide-ranging research. High densities of susceptible Aedes spp., immunologically naive human populations, global population growth with increased urbanization, and escalation of global transportation of humans and commercial goods carrying vectors and ZIKV undoubtedly enhanced the emergence of ZIKV. However, flavivirus mutations accumulate with time, increasing the likelihood that genetic viral differences are determinants of change in viral phenotype. Based on comparative ZIKV complete genome phylogenetic analyses and temporal estimates, we identify amino acid substitutions that may be associated with increased viral epidemicity, CZVS, and GBS. Reverse genetics, vector competence, and seroepidemiological studies will test our hypothesis that these amino acid substitutions are determinants of epidemic and neurotropic ZIKV emergence.

Estimate of the reproduction number of the 2015 Zika virus outbreak in Barranquilla, Colombia, and estimation of the relative role of sexual transmission

BACKGROUND In 2015, the Zika arbovirus (ZIKV) began circulating in the Americas, rapidly expanding its global geographic range in explosive outbreaks. Unusual among mosquito-borne diseases, ZIKV has been shown to also be sexually transmitted, although sustained autochthonous transmission due to sexual transmission alone has not been observed, indicating the reproduction number (R0) for sexual transmission alone is less than 1. Critical to the assessment of outbreak risk, estimation of the potential attack rates, and assessment of control measures, are estimates of the basic reproduction number, R0. METHODS We estimated the R0 of the 2015 ZIKV outbreak in Barranquilla, Colombia, through an analysis of the exponential rise in clinically identified ZIKV cases (n=359 to the end of November, 2015). FINDINGS The rate of exponential rise in cases was ρ=0.076days-1, with 95% CI [0.066,0.087] days-1. We used a vector-borne disease model with additional direct transmission to estimate the R0; assuming the R0 of sexual transmission alone is less than 1, we estimated the total R0=3.8 [2.4,5.6], and that the fraction of cases due to sexual transmission was 0.23 [0.01,0.47] with 95% confidence. INTERPRETATION This is among the first estimates of R0 for a ZIKV outbreak in the Americas, and also among the first quantifications of the relative impact of sexual transmission.

INVESTIGATION OF RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN AEDES AEGYPTI EGG, LARVAE, PUPAE, AND ADULT DENSITY INDICES WHERE THEIR MAIN BREEDING SITES WERE LOCATED INDOORS

ABSTRACT Aedes aegypti (L.) density indices obtained in a dengue fever (DF) endemic area were compared. One hundred and twenty premises, in an urban area of Colombia where dengue type-1 and type-2 virus cocirculated, were randomly selected and sampled for 7 months. The geometric mean monthly numbers (density index, DI) of Ae. aegypti eggs (ODI), 4th instar larvae (LDI), pupae (PDI), and adults (ADI) were calculated based on the use of ovitraps, nets, and manual aspirators, respectively. A negative temporal correlation was observed between the LDI and the ODI (r = −0.83, df = 5, and P < 0.01). Positive temporal correlations were only observed between the LDI and the PDI (r = 0.90, df = 5, and P < 00.5) and the Breteau and House indices (r = 0.86, df = 5, and P < 0.01). No other correlations were found between these indices and any of the other density indices or the incidence of suspected DF cases in residents, the temperature, the rainfall, or seasonal fluctuations. Our results were, therefore, probably due to the most productive Ae. aegypti breeding sites (large water containers) being located indoors within this study area. The number of adult female Ae. aegypti/ person (n = 0.5) and pupae/person (n = 11) in our study area were lower and dramatically higher than the transmission thresholds previously reported for adult and pupae, respectively. Because there were confirmed DF cases during the study period, the transmission threshold based on the Ae. aegypti pupae was clearly more reliable. We found that the mean ovitrap premise index (OPI) was 98.2% during this study and that the mean larval (L-4th instars) premise index (LPI) was 59.2%, and therefore we suggest that the OPI and LPI would be more sensitive methods to gauge the effectiveness of A. aegypti control programs.

Development of Peptide-Based Lineage-Specific Serology for Chronic Chagas Disease: Geographical and Clinical Distribution of Epitope Recognition

Background Chagas disease, caused by infection with the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, remains a serious public health issue in Latin America. Genetically diverse, the species is sub-divided into six lineages, known as TcI–TcVI, which have disparate geographical and ecological distributions. TcII, TcV, and TcVI are associated with severe human disease in the Southern Cone countries, whereas TcI is associated with cardiomyopathy north of the Amazon. T. cruzi persists as a chronic infection, with cardiac and/or gastrointestinal symptoms developing years or decades after initial infection. Identifying an individuals history of T. cruzi lineage infection directly by genotyping of the parasite is complicated by the low parasitaemia and sequestration in the host tissues. Methodology/Principal Findings We have applied here serology against lineage-specific epitopes of the T. cruzi surface antigen TSSA, as an indirect approach to allow identification of infecting lineage. Chagasic sera from chronic patients from a range of endemic countries were tested by ELISA against synthetic peptides representing lineage-specific TSSA epitopes bound to avidin-coated ELISA plates via a biotin labelled polyethylene glycol-glycine spacer to increase rotation and ensure each amino acid side chain could freely interact with their antibodies. 79/113 (70%) of samples from Brazil, Bolivia, and Argentina recognised the TSSA epitope common to lineages TcII/TcV/TcVI. Comparison with clinical information showed that a higher proportion of Brazilian TSSApep-II/V/VI responders had ECG abnormalities than non-responders (38% vs 17%; p<0.0001). Among northern chagasic sera 4/20 (20%) from Ecuador reacted with this peptide; 1/12 Venezuelan and 1/34 Colombian samples reacted with TSSApep-IV. In addition, a proposed TcI-specific epitope, described elsewhere, was demonstrated here to be highly conserved across lineages and therefore not applicable to lineage-specific serology. Conclusions/Significance These results demonstrate the considerable potential for synthetic peptide serology to investigate the infection history of individuals, geographical and clinical associations of T. cruzi lineages.

Cross-Sectional Study of Leptospira Seroprevalence in Humans, Rats, Mice, and Dogs in a Main Tropical Sea-Port City

Samples were collected from 128 symptomatic humans, 83 dogs, 49 mice, and 20 rats (Rattus rattus: 16; Rattus norvegicus: 4) in neighborhoods where human leptospirosis have been reported within the principal sea-port city of Colombia. Seroprevalences were assessed against 19 pathogenic, 1 intermediate pathogenic, and 1 saprophytic Leptospira serogroups. Pathogenic Leptospira were confirmed using conventional Leptospira-specific polymerase chain-reaction and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis analysis was used for serovar identification. Seroprevalences of 20.4%, 12.5%, 25.0%, 22.9%, and 12.4% were obtained against one to seven different serogroups in mice, R. rattus, R. norvegicus, dogs, and humans, respectively. The DNA was confirmed to be from pathogenic Leptospira by detecting the lipL32 gene in 12.5%, 3.7%, and 0.03% of the R. rattus, dog, and human samples, respectively. The first genetically typed Colombian isolate was obtained from a rat and identified as Leptospira interrogans serovar Icterohaemorrhagiae/Copenhageni.

IgG1 as a Potential Biomarker of Post-chemotherapeutic Relapse in Visceral Leishmaniasis, and Adaptation to a Rapid Diagnostic Test

Background Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), caused by protozoa of the Leishmania donovani complex, is a widespread parasitic disease of great public health importance; without effective chemotherapy symptomatic VL is usually fatal. Distinction of asymptomatic carriage from progressive disease and the prediction of relapse following treatment are hampered by the lack of prognostic biomarkers for use at point of care. Methodology/Principal Findings All IgG subclass and IgG isotype antibody levels were determined using unpaired serum samples from Indian and Sudanese patients with differing clinical status of VL, which included pre-treatment active VL, post-treatment cured, post-treatment relapsed, and post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL), as well as seropositive (DAT and/or rK39) endemic healthy controls (EHCs) and seronegative EHCs. L. donovani antigen-specific IgG1 levels were significantly elevated in relapsed versus cured VL patients (p<0.0001). Using paired Indian VL sera, consistent with the known IgG1 half-life, IgG1 levels had not decreased significantly at day 30 after the start of treatment (p = 0.8304), but were dramatically decreased by 6 months compared to day 0 (p = 0.0032) or day 15 (p<0.0001) after start of treatment. Similarly, Sudanese sera taken soon after treatment did not show a significant change in the IgG1 levels (p = 0.3939). Two prototype lateral flow immunochromatographic rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) were developed to detect IgG1 levels following VL treatment: more than 80% of the relapsed VL patients were IgG1 positive; at least 80% of the cured VL patients were IgG1 negative (p<0.0001). Conclusions/Significance Six months after treatment of active VL, elevated levels of specific IgG1 were associated with treatment failure and relapse, whereas no IgG1 or low levels were detected in cured VL patients. A lateral flow RDT was successfully developed to detect anti-Leishmania IgG1 as a potential biomarker of post-chemotherapeutic relapse.

Simple Prognostic Criteria Can Definitively Identify Patients Who Develop Severe Versus Non-Severe Dengue Disease, or Have Other Febrile Illnesses

Background Severe dengue disease (SDD) (DHF/DSS: dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome) results from either primary or secondary dengue virus (DENV) infections, which occur 4 - 6 days after the onset of fever. As yet, there are no definitive clinical or hematological criteria that can specifically identify SDD patients during the early acute febrile-phase of disease (day 0 - 3: < 72 hours). This study was performed during a SDD (DHF/DSS) epidemic to: 1) identify the DENV serotypes that caused SDD during primary or secondary DENV infections; 2) identify simple clinical and hematological criteria that could significantly discriminate between patients who subsequently developed SDD versus non-SDD (N-SDD), or had a non-DENV fever of unknown origin (FUO) during day 0 - 3 of fever; 3) assess whether DENV serotype co-infections resulted in SDD. Methods First serum samples, with clinical and hematological criteria, were collected from 100 patients during the early acute febrile-phase (day 0 - 3: < 72 hours), assessed for DENV or FUO infections by IgM- and IgG-capture ELISAs on paired serum samples and by DENV isolations, and subsequently graded as SDD, N-SDD or FUO patients. Results In this study: 1) Thirty-three patients had DENV infections, predominantly secondary DENV-2 infections, including each SDD (DHF/DSS) case; 2) Secondary DENV-2/-3 and DENV-2/-4 serotype co-infections however resulted in N-SDD; 3) Each patient who subsequently developed SDD, but none of the others, displayed three clinical criteria: abdominal pain, conjunctival injection and veni-puncture bleeding, therefore each of these criteria provided definitively significant prognostic (P < 0.001) values; 4) Petechia, positive tourniquet tests and hepatomegaly, and neutrophilia or leukopenia also significantly identified those who: a) subsequently developed SDD versus N-SDD, or had a FUO; b) subsequently developed SDD versus N-SDD; c) subsequently developed N-SDD versus FUOs, respectively. Conclusions This is the first report of simple definitively prognostic criteria for SDD patients, including the first assessment and confirmation of conjunctival injection. The three definitive clinical criteria used alone, or supported by the other four criteria, could be essential for specifically identifying those patients needing prompt hospital-based therapies to lessen or avert SDD, without unnecessary hospitalization of the other patients. Keywords Dengue virus; Severe dengue; Dengue fever; Diagnostic; Criteria; Hemorrhage; Shock

Significantly Lower Anti-Leishmania IgG Responses in Sudanese versus Indian Visceral Leishmaniasis

Background Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a widely distributed systemic disease caused by infection with the Leishmania donovani complex (L. donovani and L. infantum), is almost always fatal if symptomatic and untreated. A rapid point-of-care diagnostic test for anti-Leishmania antibodies, the rK39-immunochromatographic test (rK39-ICT), has high sensitivity and specificity in South Asia but is less sensitive in East Africa. One of the underlying reasons may be continent-specific molecular diversity in the rK39 antigen within the L. donovani complex. However, a second reason may be differences in specific IgG anti-Leishmania levels in patients from different geographical regions, either due to variable antigenicity or immunological response. Methodology/Principal Findings We determined IgG titres of Indian and Sudanese VL patients against whole cell lysates of Indian and Sudanese L. donovani strains. Indian VL patients had significantly higher IgG titres against both L. donovani strains compared to Sudanese VL patients (p<0.0001). Mean reciprocal log10 50% end-point titres (1/log10t50) were i) 3.80 and 3.88 for Indian plasma and ii) 2.13 and 2.09 for Sudanese plasma against Indian and Sudanese antigen respectively (p<0.0001). Overall, the Indian VL patients therefore showed a 46.8–61.7 -fold higher mean ELISA titre than the Sudanese VL patients. The higher IgG titres occurred in children (<16 years old) and adults of either sex from India (mean 1/log10t50: 3.60–4.15) versus Sudan (mean 1/log10t50: 1.88–2.54). The greatest difference in IgG responses was between male Indian and Sudanese VL patients of ≥ 16 years old (mean 1/log10t50: 4.15 versus 1.99 = 144-fold (p<0.0001). Conclusions/Significance Anti-Leishmania IgG responses among VL patients in Sudan were significantly lower than in India; this may be due to chronic malnutrition with Zn2+ deficiency, or variable antigenicity and capacity to generate IgG responses to Leishmania antigens. Such differential anti-Leishmania IgG levels may contribute to lower sensitivity of the rK39-ICT in East Africa.

A simple, inexpensive, robust and sensitive dot-blot assay for equal detection of the nonstructural-1 glycoprotein of all dengue virus serotypes

BackgroundDetection of dengue virus (DENV) soluble/excreted (s/e) form of the nonstructural-1 (NS1) glycoprotein in patient acute-phase sera is ideal for diagnosis. The commercially-available detection assays are, however, too expensive for routine use and have low specificity, particularly for the s/e NS1 glycoprotein of DENV-2 and DENV-4, which are important causes of lethal human disease worldwide.MethodsMouse monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) were generated and screened against s/e NS1 glycoprotein purified from each DENV serotype to obtain those that reacted equally with each serotype, but not with yellow fever virus (YFV) s/e NS1 glycoprotein or human serum proteins. One MAb, MAb 2C4.6, was further tested against these DENV glycoproteins in human sera using simple, peroxidase-labelled secondary antibody/substrate-developed dot-blot assays.ResultsOptimal quenching of endogenous human serum peroxidases was attained using 3% H2O2 in H20 for 5 min. MAb 2C4.6 showed an acceptable detection sensitivity of < 32 ng/ml for the s/e NS1 glycoprotein of each DENV serotype but did not cross-react with the YFV s/e NS1 glycoprotein or human serum proteins. By contrast, the LX1 epitope-specific MAb, 3D1.4, showed similar detection sensitivity against only the DENV-1 NS1 glycoprotein, consistent with results from commercial DENV s/e NS1 glycoprotein detection assays.DENV s/e NS1 glycoproteins were stable in human sera after drying on the nitrocellulose membranes and storage for one month at ambient temperature (28°C) before being processed. The total assay time was reduced to 3 h without any loss of detection sensitivity. This dot-blot format was ideal for the circulating immune complex disruption step, which is required for increased DENV s/e NS1 glycoprotein detection.ConclusionsThis is the first study to determine the detection sensitivity of MAbs against known concentrations of s/e NS1 glycoprotein from each DENV serotype. The preparation of patient serum samples for dot-blot assays can be performed by staff with a basic level of training and storage at low temperatures (e.g., -80°C) is not necessary. These simple, inexpensive (US

Re-visiting the evolution, dispersal and epidemiology of Zika virus in Asia

0.05/sample), robust, sensitive and relatively rapid assays, using improved MAbs such as MAb 2C4.6, should be ideal for the diagnosis of all DENV serotypes in DENV endemic regions.