Andrew L. Gray

Intimate partner violence intervention for high-risk offenders.

This study is an evaluation of pre-postprogram change associated with the High Intensity Family Violence Prevention Program (HIFVPP) for incarcerated male offenders who are perpetrators of Intimate Partner Violence (IPV). The sample consists of 159 male offenders who participated in the HIFVPP while incarcerated. Participants were assessed pre-, mid-, and postprogram using an assessment battery consisting of self-report questionnaires and facilitator-rated evaluation scales. Results found uniform and significant (p < .001) improvement for pre- and postprogram change in the self-report questionnaires and in the facilitator ratings. A positive improvement in motivation, whether assessed by the participant or facilitator, was associated with improvement in program outcomes and significant within, between, and interaction effects were found when participant program performance over time was compared among grouped postprogram ratings of motivation. The implication for the efficacy of addressing offender motivation to change in IPV interventions is discussed.

Does Reassessment of Risk Improve Predictions? A Framework and Examination of the SAVRY and YLS/CMI.

Although experts recommend regularly reassessing adolescents’ risk for violence, it is unclear whether reassessment improves predictions. Thus, in this prospective study, the authors tested 3 hypotheses as to why reassessment might improve predictions, namely the shelf-life, dynamic change, and familiarity hypotheses. Research assistants (RAs) rated youth on the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) and the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) every 3 months over a 1-year period, conducting 624 risk assessments with 156 youth on probation. The authors then examined charges for violence and any offense over a 2-year follow-up period, and youths’ self-reports of reoffending. Contrary to the shelf-life hypothesis, predictions did not decline or expire over time. Instead, time-dependent area under the curve scores remained consistent across the follow-up period. Contrary to the dynamic change hypothesis, changes in youth’s risk total scores, compared to what is average for that youth, did not predict changes in reoffending. Finally, contrary to the familiarity hypothesis, reassessments were no more predictive than initial assessments, despite RAs’ increased familiarity with youth. Before drawing conclusions, researchers should evaluate the extent to which youth receiving the usual probation services show meaningful short-term changes in risk and, if so, whether risk assessment tools are sensitive to these changes.

Are Adolescent Risk Assessment Tools Sensitive to Change? A Framework and Examination of the SAVRY and the YLS/CMI.

Although many adolescent risk assessment tools include an emphasis on dynamic factors, little research has examined the extent to which these tools are capable of measuring change. In this article, we outline a framework to evaluate a tool’s capacity to measure change. This framework includes the following: (a) measurement error and reliable change, and (b) sensitivity (i.e., internal, external, and relative sensitivity). We then used this framework to evaluate the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) and Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI). Research assistants conducted 509 risk assessments with 146 adolescents on probation (101 male, 45 female), who were assessed every 3 months over a 1-year period. Internal sensitivity (i.e., change over time) was partially supported in that a modest proportion of youth showed reliable changes over the 3-, 6-, and 12-month follow-ups. External sensitivity (i.e., the association between change scores and reoffending) was also partially supported. In particular, 22% of the associations between change scores and any and violent reoffending were significant at a 6-month follow-up. However, only 1 change score (i.e., peer associations) remained significant after the Bonferroni correction was applied. Finally, relative sensitivity was not supported, as the SAVRY and YLS/CMI was not more dynamic than the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV). Specifically, the 1-year rank-order stability coefficients for the SAVRY, YLS/CMI, and PCL:YV Total Scores were .78, .75, and .76, respectively. Although the SAVRY and YLS/CMI hold promise, further efforts may help to enhance sensitivity to short-term changes in risk.

Two-Tiered Violence Risk Estimates: A Validation Study of an Integrated-Actuarial Risk Assessment Instrument

This study is an initial validation study of the Two-Tiered Violence Risk Estimates instrument (TTV), a violence risk appraisal instrument designed to support an integrated-actuarial approach to violence risk assessment. The TTV was scored retrospectively from file information on a sample of violent offenders. Construct validity was examined by comparing the TTV with instruments that have shown utility to predict violence that were prospectively scored: The Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) and Lifestyle Criminality Screening Form (LCSF). Predictive validity was examined through a long-term follow-up of 12.4 years with a sample of 78 incarcerated offenders. Results show the TTV to be highly correlated with the HCR-20 and LCSF. The base rate for violence over the follow-up period was 47.4%, and the TTV was equally predictive of violent recidivism relative to the HCR-20 and LCSF. Discussion centers on the advantages of an integrated-actuarial approach to the assessment of violence risk.

Changes in J-SOAP-II and SAVRY Scores Over the Course of Residential, Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment for Adolescent Sexual Offending.

Although the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol–II (J-SOAP-II) and the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) include an emphasis on dynamic, or modifiable factors, there has been little research on dynamic changes on these tools. To help address this gap, we compared admission and discharge scores of 163 adolescents who attended a residential, cognitive-behavioral treatment program for sexual offending. Based on reliable change indices, one half of youth showed a reliable decrease on the J-SOAP-II Dynamic Risk Total Score and one third of youth showed a reliable decrease on the SAVRY Dynamic Risk Total Score. Contrary to expectations, decreases in risk factors and increases in protective factors did not predict reduced sexual, violent nonsexual, or any reoffending. In addition, no associations were found between scores on the Psychopathy Checklist:Youth Version and levels of change. Overall, the J-SOAP-II and the SAVRY hold promise in measuring change, but further research is needed.

An evaluation of the predictive validity of the SAVRY and YLS/CMI in justice-involved youth with fetal alcohol spectrum disorder.

Despite the high prevalence of fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD) in youth criminal justice settings, there is currently no research supporting the use of violence risk assessment tools in this population. This study examined the predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) and the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) in justice-involved youth with FASD. Participants were 100 justice-involved youth (ages 12−23; 81% male), including 50 diagnosed with FASD and 50 without FASD or prenatal alcohol exposure. The SAVRY and YLS/CMI were prospectively coded based on interview and file review, with recidivism (both any and violent specifically) coded 1-year post−baseline assessment. Results provide preliminary support for the validity of the SAVRY and YLS/CMI in predicting recidivism in justice-involved youth with FASD. Higher ratings across SAVRY and YLS/CMI domains were found in youth with FASD, underscoring a critical need for assessments and interventions to buffer recidivism risk and address clinical needs.