Catherine S. Shaffer

Does Reassessment of Risk Improve Predictions? A Framework and Examination of the SAVRY and YLS/CMI.

Although experts recommend regularly reassessing adolescents’ risk for violence, it is unclear whether reassessment improves predictions. Thus, in this prospective study, the authors tested 3 hypotheses as to why reassessment might improve predictions, namely the shelf-life, dynamic change, and familiarity hypotheses. Research assistants (RAs) rated youth on the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) and the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) every 3 months over a 1-year period, conducting 624 risk assessments with 156 youth on probation. The authors then examined charges for violence and any offense over a 2-year follow-up period, and youths’ self-reports of reoffending. Contrary to the shelf-life hypothesis, predictions did not decline or expire over time. Instead, time-dependent area under the curve scores remained consistent across the follow-up period. Contrary to the dynamic change hypothesis, changes in youth’s risk total scores, compared to what is average for that youth, did not predict changes in reoffending. Finally, contrary to the familiarity hypothesis, reassessments were no more predictive than initial assessments, despite RAs’ increased familiarity with youth. Before drawing conclusions, researchers should evaluate the extent to which youth receiving the usual probation services show meaningful short-term changes in risk and, if so, whether risk assessment tools are sensitive to these changes.

Are Adolescent Risk Assessment Tools Sensitive to Change? A Framework and Examination of the SAVRY and the YLS/CMI.

Although many adolescent risk assessment tools include an emphasis on dynamic factors, little research has examined the extent to which these tools are capable of measuring change. In this article, we outline a framework to evaluate a tool’s capacity to measure change. This framework includes the following: (a) measurement error and reliable change, and (b) sensitivity (i.e., internal, external, and relative sensitivity). We then used this framework to evaluate the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) and Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI). Research assistants conducted 509 risk assessments with 146 adolescents on probation (101 male, 45 female), who were assessed every 3 months over a 1-year period. Internal sensitivity (i.e., change over time) was partially supported in that a modest proportion of youth showed reliable changes over the 3-, 6-, and 12-month follow-ups. External sensitivity (i.e., the association between change scores and reoffending) was also partially supported. In particular, 22% of the associations between change scores and any and violent reoffending were significant at a 6-month follow-up. However, only 1 change score (i.e., peer associations) remained significant after the Bonferroni correction was applied. Finally, relative sensitivity was not supported, as the SAVRY and YLS/CMI was not more dynamic than the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV). Specifically, the 1-year rank-order stability coefficients for the SAVRY, YLS/CMI, and PCL:YV Total Scores were .78, .75, and .76, respectively. Although the SAVRY and YLS/CMI hold promise, further efforts may help to enhance sensitivity to short-term changes in risk.

Changes in J-SOAP-II and SAVRY Scores Over the Course of Residential, Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment for Adolescent Sexual Offending.

Although the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol–II (J-SOAP-II) and the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) include an emphasis on dynamic, or modifiable factors, there has been little research on dynamic changes on these tools. To help address this gap, we compared admission and discharge scores of 163 adolescents who attended a residential, cognitive-behavioral treatment program for sexual offending. Based on reliable change indices, one half of youth showed a reliable decrease on the J-SOAP-II Dynamic Risk Total Score and one third of youth showed a reliable decrease on the SAVRY Dynamic Risk Total Score. Contrary to expectations, decreases in risk factors and increases in protective factors did not predict reduced sexual, violent nonsexual, or any reoffending. In addition, no associations were found between scores on the Psychopathy Checklist:Youth Version and levels of change. Overall, the J-SOAP-II and the SAVRY hold promise in measuring change, but further research is needed.

Questioning fairness: the relationship of mental health and psychopathic characteristics with young offenders' perceptions of procedural justice and legitimacy

BACKGROUND Theories of procedural justice suggest that individuals who experience the criminal justice system as fair are more likely to perceive it as legitimate and, in turn, are less likely to reoffend. However, when individuals come into contact with the legal system, they are not blank slates - they have beliefs and personality characteristics that may systematically influence such perceptions. AIMS Our aim was to establish the extent to which demographic characteristics, legal history and clinical features, including personality characteristics, systematically influenced the degree to which young people experience the justice system as fair and legitimate. METHOD Self-report, file and interview data were collected from ninety-two 12 to 17-year-olds on probation in Western Canada. RESULTS Substance use and traumatic experiences were inversely correlated with perceptions of procedural justice and legal legitimacy. Young people with higher scores on interpersonal, lifestyle and antisocial facets of the psychopathy checklist: youth version believed less strongly in the legitimacy of the law, but regression analyses confirmed that only history of trauma was independently associated with perceived procedural justice and legitimacy. Those in the youngest age group were more likely to have positive perceptions of justice than older youths, but demographics and legal history otherwise did not relate to outcomes. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that examining the relationship between procedural justice, legitimacy and offending without taking intra-individual variables into account may neglect important influences on those relationships. Other research has begun to show that young people who do not accept the law as legitimate or the criminal justice system as fair are more likely to offend. Copyright

Assessing Protective Factors for Adolescent Offending: A Conceptually Informed Examination of the SAVRY and YLS/CMI

Although the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) and the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) are among the most widely used adolescent risk assessment tools, they conceptualize and measure strengths differently. As such, in this study, we compared the predictive validity of SAVRY Protective Total and YLS/CMI Strength Total, and tested conceptual models of how these measures operate (i.e., risk vs. protective effects, direct vs. buffering effects, causal models). Research assistants conducted 624 risk assessments with 156 youth on probation. They rated protective factors at baseline, and again at 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month follow-up periods. The SAVRY Protective Total and YLS/CMI Strength Total inversely predicted any charges in the subsequent 2 years (area under the curve scores = 0.61 and 0.60, respectively, p < .05). Furthermore, when adolescents’ protective total scores increased, their self-reported violence decreased, thus providing evidence that these factors might play a causally relevant role in reducing violence. However, protective factors did not provide incremental validity over risk factors. In addition, because these measures are brief and use a dichotomous rating system, they primarily captured deficits in protective factors (i.e., low scores). This suggests a need for more comprehensive measures.

Ten-Year Trends in Physical Dating Violence Victimization Among Adolescent Boys and Girls in British Columbia, Canada:

Physical dating violence (PDV) victimization among adolescents is a serious global problem. Although knowledge of trends in PDV victimization can help guide programming and health policies, little research has examined whether the prevalence of PDV victimization has increased, decreased, or remained stable over time among non-U.S.-based samples of youth. In addition, few studies have directly tested whether disparities in PDV victimization between boys and girls have narrowed, widened, or remained unchanged in recent years. To address these gaps, we used school-based data from the British Columbia Adolescent Health Survey (BC AHS) of 2003, 2008, and 2013 ( n boys = 18,441 and n girls = 17,459) to examine 10-year trends in PDV victimization. We also tested whether trends differed across self-reported sex. Data from the 2003 to 2013 BC AHS revealed that recent PDV victimization rates had significantly decreased among youth overall (5.9%-5.0%) and boys (8.0%-5.8%), but not girls (5.3%-4.2%). Although boys had steeper declines than girls in PDV victimization rates, year-by-sex interactions indicate that the sex gap in PDV victimization had not significantly narrowed. Moreover, rates of PDV victimization over the 10-year period indicated significantly higher rates of PDV victimization among boys compared with girls. Despite positive declines in recent rates of PDV victimization among youth, important differences in rates of PDV victimization between boys and girls remain. These findings underscore the need for greater attention to sex differences in research and programming and health policies to reduce PDV victimization and the sex disparities therein.

The Role of Life Satisfaction in Predicting Youth Violence and Offending: A Prospective Examination

Life satisfaction in adolescence has been shown to protect against numerous negative outcomes (e.g., substance use, sexual risk-taking), but limited work has directly explored the relationship between life satisfaction and youth violence and offending. As such, we conducted a prospective assessment to explore this relationship among community ( n = 334) and at-risk youth ( n = 99). Findings suggest life satisfaction is significantly associated with decreased offending and violence within both samples and adds incremental value above established risk factors in predicting violent and total offending among community youth. Furthermore, moderation analyses indicate that the protective value of life satisfaction is greater for youth with high callous-unemotional traits. Mediation analyses suggest that youth who are unsatisfied with their lives may seek out substance use, in turn elevating risk of offending. Together, these findings indicate that efforts to improve overall life satisfaction may help prevent adolescent offending. However, future research is needed.

Predictive Validity of the MAYSI-2 and PAI-A for Suicide-Related Behavior and Nonsuicidal Self-Injury Among Adjudicated Adolescent Offenders on Probation:

This prospective study evaluated the ability of the MAYSI-2 and PAI-A to predict suicide-related behavior (SRB) and nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) among adjudicated adolescent offenders on probation. Predictive validity of the MAYSI-2 for SRB and NSSI has generally been postdictively examined among detained adolescents. In addition, no published studies have examined the predictive validity of the PAI-A for SRB and NSSI among adolescent offenders. Neither the MAYSI-2 nor PAI-A added incremental predictive validity above lifetime SRB or NSSI. However, several MAYSI-2 and PAI-A subscales were predictive of SRB or NSSI. With some exceptions, most recommended instrument cut-off scores differentiated between low-risk and high-risk youth. These findings suggest that the MAYSI-2 and PAI-A hold promise for evaluating SRB and NSSI among justice-involved youth. In addition, these findings contribute to more informed decisions regarding the use of these tools and can be used to inform SRB and NSSI prevention efforts.

Improving Case Plans and Interventions for Adolescents on Probation: The Implementation of the SAVRY and a Structured Case Planning Form

Even when probation officers use risk assessment tools, many of their clients’ needs remain unaddressed. As such, we examined whether the implementation of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) and a structured case planning form resulted in better case plans as compared with prior practices (i.e., a nonvalidated local tool and an unstructured plan). Our sample comprised 216 adolescents on probation who were matched via propensity scores. Adolescents in the SAVRY/Structured Plan condition had significantly better case plans than those in the preimplementation condition. Specifically, following implementation, adolescents’ high need domains were more likely to be targeted in plans. Plans also scored higher on other quality indicators (e.g., level of detail). These improvements appeared to be due primarily to the structured plan rather than the SAVRY. Overall, our findings highlight that, just as structure can improve risk assessments, so too might structure improve case plans.