Andrew P. Barkley

The Determinants of the Migration of Labor out of Agriculture in the United States, 1940–85

The flow of labor out of production agriculture is analyzed using a two-sector model of occupational choice. A migration equation is specified and tested empirically using aggregate data for the United States. The economic determinants of the migration of all farm workers and farm operators are established. Farm labor is found to be responsive to changes in the returns to agricultural labor relative to nonfarm labor returns. Given this responsiveness, policies intended to increase farm income will affect the level of agricultural employment.

Effect of warming temperatures on US wheat yields.

Significance This study provides insights for wheat breeding efforts, public policy, and agricultural decision making related to climate change. Our findings provide opportunities for the international wheat breeding community to intensify research efforts to increase resistance to heat stress during focused developmental stages. These efforts could result in net positive warming effects since reduced exposure to freeze was found to be a yield-enhancing benefit of warming. Our results indicate that advancements in heat resistance could come at the expense of higher average yields, and that there is currently limited scope for producer adaptation through alternative variety selection. Our results also suggest that irrigation could help mitigate the effects of warming, which has implications for policies focused on the conservation of increasingly scarce water resources. Climate change is expected to increase future temperatures, potentially resulting in reduced crop production in many key production regions. Research quantifying the complex relationship between weather variables and wheat yields is rapidly growing, and recent advances have used a variety of model specifications that differ in how temperature data are included in the statistical yield equation. A unique data set that combines Kansas wheat variety field trial outcomes for 1985–2013 with location-specific weather data is used to analyze the effect of weather on wheat yield using regression analysis. Our results indicate that the effect of temperature exposure varies across the September−May growing season. The largest drivers of yield loss are freezing temperatures in the Fall and extreme heat events in the Spring. We also find that the overall effect of warming on yields is negative, even after accounting for the benefits of reduced exposure to freezing temperatures. Our analysis indicates that there exists a tradeoff between average (mean) yield and ability to resist extreme heat across varieties. More-recently released varieties are less able to resist heat than older lines. Our results also indicate that warming effects would be partially offset by increased rainfall in the Spring. Finally, we find that the method used to construct measures of temperature exposure matters for both the predictive performance of the regression model and the forecasted warming impacts on yields.

The Impact of Forward Contracting on Fed Cattle Transaction Prices

Beef packers have vertically integrated into the cattle feeding sector. This study examines the impacts of beef packer forward contracting on cash cattle transaction prices in southwest Kansas. From late May through November 1990, average fed cattle cash transaction prices were estimated to be

The Determinants of Wheat Variety Selection in Kansas, 1974 to 1993

0.15/cwt to

Government intervention and market integration in Indonesian rice markets

0.31/cwt lower as a result of forward contract cattle shipments. The impact of the level of forward contracting on cash prices was variable across time: cash prices were as much as

Agricultural Graduate Earnings: The Impacts of College, Career, and Gender

0.34/cwt lower at times when contract shipments were large, and prices were statistically unaffected at times when forward contract shipments were low.

Wheat Variety Selection to Maximize Returns and Minimize Risk: An Application of Portfolio Theory

In 1993, over one-third of Kansas wheat acres were seeded to varieties with milling and baking qualities ranked “less desirable,” stimulating interest in the determinants of wheat variety selection. Regression analysis is used to quantify the relationship between planted varieties and wheat characteristics relating to production and end-use qualities. Results indicate that Kansas wheat producers consider end-use qualities, production characteristics, relative yields, yield stability, and past production decisions when selecting wheat varieties. Simulation results reveal potential tradeoffs facing wheat breeders and seed dealers. Time paths of adoption are projected for potential improvements in wheat yields and quality characteristics. Copyright 1996, Oxford University Press.

Enhancing Farm Profitability through Portfolio Analysis: The Case of Spatial Rice Variety Selection

Long-run spatial price relationships in Indonesian rice markets and factors affecting the degree of market integration are evaluated using multivariate cointegration tests with weekly price data for the 1982-1993 period. The analysis includes evaluation of pre-self-sufficiency and post-self-sufficiency periods as well as for the entire period. The cointegration tests for entire Indonesian rice market, represented by the nine most relevant price series, indicate that relative to the pre-selfsufficiency period, the post-self-sufficiency period has a smaller degree of market integration. The change of the degree of market integration over time indicates that rationalizing of the Indonesian rice price policy beyond 1984 rice self-sufficiency has resulted in a less integrated market. This suggests that the policy shift has allowed the government to decrease its intervention without significantly decreasing market integration, indicating that the private sector is responding to price signals appropriately. It is possible that further reduction in intervention through widening the band between the floor and ceiling price could be accomplished without greatly affecting market integration. Regression results show that government intervention in terms of rice procurement significantly influenced market integration during the period of post-self-sufficiency (1985-1993) and the entire period of 1982-1993. This indicates that this aspect of government intervention has had positive influences on market integration, in contrast to distribution efforts, which were not found to be statistically significant. Procurement prices may be high, and could perhaps be lowered, reducing program costs. Regional per capita income is also found to be positively related to higher levels of market integration, suggesting that in periods of economic growth, government intervention may be decreased, thereby reducing program costs.

The Motivation for Organic Grain Farming in the United States: Profits, Lifestyle, or the Environment?

Survey data were used to identify determinants of starting and current salaries of agricultural graduates from Kansas State University from 1976–97. Salaries were significantly influenced by major field, advanced degrees, job location, gender and family variables, motivation for accepting a job, and job mobility. Salary structures were estimated separately for male and female alumni. Women earned less than men, after controlling for observed differences between the two groups. Decomposition of the salary differential revealed that gender salary differences were primarily due to differences between sexes in starting salaries, field of study, job experience, and higher returns to married men. Copyright 1999, Oxford University Press.

Earnings of Kansas State University Agriculture Graduates: 1978–88

This research shows that a portfolio of wheat varieties could enhance profitability and reduce risk over the selection of a single variety for Kansas wheat producers. Many Kansas wheat farmers select varieties solely based on published average yields. This study uses portfolio theory from business investment analysis to find the optimal, yield-maximizing and risk-minimizing combination of wheat varieties in Kansas.