Bruce L. Dixon

Effectiveness of Fluid Milk Advertising Since the Dairy and Tobacco Adjustment Act of 1983

An econometric model pooling monthly cross-sectional and time-series data is estimated to measure the impact of national and regional generic fluid milk advertising. The estimated model shows that the effectiveness of advertising has increased since the implementation of the Dairy Adjustment Act. Gains in fluid milk sales attributed to milk advertising are estimated. Sales gains for both the pre- and post-act periods are shown along with the gains associated with parameter changes in the post-act periods. Marginal advertising responses are derived.

Valuing Forecast Characteristics in a Dynamic Agricultural Production System

A dynamic programming model of east-central Illinois corn production is utilized to determine the value of seasonal climate forecasts. Results indicate that the value of climate forecasts is sensitive to economic conditions as well as forecast characteristics. A trade-off between forecast accuracy and lead time exists. A less accurate forecast received earlier in the production process may be more valuable than a more accurate forecast received later. Additional characteristics evaluated include forecast periods of greatest importance, prior knowledge assumptions, and interactions between forecasting adjacent periods.

Neglecting Rice Milling Yield and Quality Underestimates Economic Losses from High-Temperature Stress

Future increases in global surface temperature threaten those worldwide who depend on rice production for their livelihoods and food security. Past analyses of high-temperature stress on rice production have focused on paddy yield and have failed to account for the detrimental impact of high temperatures on milling quality outcomes, which ultimately determine edible (marketable) rice yield and market value. Using genotype specific rice yield and milling quality data on six common rice varieties from Arkansas, USA, combined with on-site, half-hourly and daily temperature observations, we show a nonlinear effect of high-temperature stress exposure on yield and milling quality. A 1°C increase in average growing season temperature reduces paddy yield by 6.2%, total milled rice yield by 7.1% to 8.0%, head rice yield by 9.0% to 13.8%, and total milling revenue by 8.1% to 11.0%, across genotypes. Our results indicate that failure to account for changes in milling quality leads to understatement of the impacts of high temperatures on rice production outcomes. These dramatic losses result from reduced paddy yield and increased percentages of chalky and broken kernels, which together decrease the quantity and market value of milled rice. Recently published estimates show paddy yield reductions of up to 10% across the major rice-producing regions of South and Southeast Asia due to rising temperatures. The results of our study suggest that the often-cited 10% figure underestimates the economic implications of climate change for rice producers, thus potentially threatening future food security for global rice producers and consumers.

Credit Constraints, Farm Characteristics, and the Farm Economy: Differential Impacts on Feeder Cattle and Beef Cow Inventories

A recurrent topic in the macroeconomic literature is the financial accelerator—the notion that informational asymmetries introduce inefficiencies to financial markets which amplify and propagate the effects of real or monetary shocks. With the purpose of finding empirical evidence that is consistent with a financial accelerator operating in the cattle sector, inventory investment models are estimated with an appended cash flow variable. The inclusion of cash flow is motivated by the notion that investment by credit-constrained farms should be sensitive to movements in internal funds. Results are consistent with the financial accelerator operating in the feeder cattle but not in the cow-calf sector. Copyright 1998, Oxford University Press.

Valuing climate forecast information

Abstract The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. These results indicate that the production process examined has sufficient flexibility to utilize climate forecasts for specific production seasons but the value of those forecasts is sensitive to economic parameters as well as forecasts characteristics. Forecasts periods of greatest importance, as well as the relationships between forecast value, accuracy, and lead time, are evaluated.

Usefulness of Pretests for Estimating Underlying Technologies Using Dual Profit Functions

Translog and generalized-linear approximating forms are used to estimate dual profit functions from stochastically simulated data generated from a known, relatively complex technology under profit-maximizing conditions. The hypotheses of monotonicity, convexity, and equality of parameters common to the profit function and demand equations are tested. This last hypothesis is always rejected and monotonicity is never rejected. Convexity is rejected for about a third of the translog models and fewer than 5 percent of generalized-linear models. Neither approximating form strongly dominates the other for accuracy in estimating the underlying elasticities of substitution. Copyright 1987 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Revisiting GMOs: Are There Differences in European Consumers’ Acceptance and Valuation for Cisgenically vs Transgenically Bred Rice?

Both cisgenesis and transgenesis are plant breeding techniques that can be used to introduce new genes into plant genomes. However, transgenesis uses gene(s) from a non-plant organism or from a donor plant that is sexually incompatible with the recipient plant while cisgenesis involves the introduction of gene(s) from a crossable—sexually compatible—plant. Traditional breeding techniques could possibly achieve the same results as those from cisgenesis, but would require a much larger timeframe. Cisgenesis allows plant breeders to enhance an existing cultivar more quickly and with little to no genetic drag. The current regulation in the European Union (EU) on genetically modified organisms (GMOs) treats cisgenic plants the same as transgenic plants and both are mandatorily labeled as GMOs. This study estimates European consumers’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) for rice labeled as GM, cisgenic, with environmental benefits (which cisgenesis could provide), or any combination of these three attributes. Data were collected from 3,002 participants through an online survey administered in Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom in 2013. Censored regression models were used to model consumers’ WTP in each country. Model estimates highlight significant differences in WTP across countries. In all five countries, consumers are willing-to-pay a premium to avoid purchasing rice labeled as GM. In all countries except Spain, consumers have a significantly higher WTP to avoid consuming rice labeled as GM compared to rice labeled as cisgenic, suggesting that inserting genes from the plant’s own gene pool is more acceptable to consumers. Additionally, French consumers are willing-to-pay a premium for rice labeled as having environmental benefits compared to conventional rice. These findings suggest that not all GMOs are the same in consumers’ eyes and thus, from a consumer preference perspective, the differences between transgenic and cisgenic products are recommended to be reflected in GMO labeling and trade policies.

Agricultural pests as common property: Control of the corn rootworm

Insecticide resistance is an increasingly widespread problem reducing effectiveness and necessitating a switch to more expensive controls. A common property resource model is used to describe potential gain from internalizing resistance externalities through regional coordination. A nonlinear programming model of an Illinois cash grain farm is used to estimate the gain for corn rootworm control where rotation to soybeans is an alternative to insecticide. Switching to rotation as resistance builds causes a relatively minor decrease in profits because soybeans are profitable. Gain from delaying resistance is slight. Co-states give price changes necessary to alter externality production.

The relation between CEO control and the risk of CEO compensation

Abstract Optimal ownership structure is an important issue in corporate governance debates. This study uses piece-wise regression analysis to examine the impact of ownership structure on the risk of CEO compensation. We show that when the CEO and the board of directors control low levels of voting stock (i.e., below 13% of total shares) increases in ownership are positively related to CEO compensation risk. For ownership levels above 13% but below 22%, increases in ownership are negatively related to CEO compensation risk. This evidence provides a partial explanation for the non-monotonic relationship between Tobins Q and management ownership observed by Morck et al. (1988) [Morck, R., Shleifer, A., Vishny, R., 1988. Management ownership and market valuation: an empirical analysis, Journal of Financial Economics 20 (1988) 293–316.].

Estimating Production Activity Costs for Multioutput Firms with a Random Coefficient Regression Model

A random coefficient regression model provides an approach for estimating the mean variable costs of specific enterprise production activities for each output over a population of multioutput firms. The model specifically acknowledges that these farm-level costs vary from farm to farm. In addition, best linear unbiased predictions can be estimated for each activity for an individual farm. The mean estimates are quite useful for ex post cost analysis, thereby providing per unit cost estimates for farmers, governmental agencies, and researchers. The best linear unbiased predictions can be used by individual farmers for planning yearly operations, applying for operating loans, and analyzing marketing strategies.