Andrew Russell

The Convective Storm Initiation Project

The Convective Storm Initiation Project (CSIP) is an international project to understand precisely where, when, and how convective clouds form and develop into showers in the mainly maritime environment of southern England. A major aim of CSIP is to compare the results of the very high resolution Met Office weather forecasting model with detailed observations of the early stages of convective clouds and to use the newly gained understanding to improve the predictions of the model. A large array of ground-based instruments plus two instrumented aircraft, from the U.K. National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) and the German Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe, were deployed in southern England, over an area centered on the meteorological radars at Chilbolton, during the summers of 2004 and 2005. In addition to a variety ofground-based remote-sensing instruments, numerous rawinsondes were released at one- to two-hourly intervals from six closely spaced sites. The Met Office weather radar network and Meteosat satellite imagery were used to provide context for the observations made by the instruments deployed during CSIP. This article presents an overview of the CSIP field campaign and examples from CSIP of the types of convective initiation phenomena that are typical in the United Kingdom. It shows the way in which certain kinds of observational data are able to reveal these phenomena and gives an explanation of how the analyses of data from the field campaign will be used in the development of an improved very high resolution NWP model for operational use.

Combination of mesoscale and synoptic mechanisms for triggering an isolated thunderstorm: Observational case study of CSIP IOP 1

Abstract An isolated thunderstorm formed in the southern United Kingdom on 15 June 2005 and moved through the area where a large number of observational instruments were deployed as part of the Convective Storm Initiation Project. Earlier, a convergence line had formed downstream of Devon in the southwest of the United Kingdom in a southwesterly airflow, along which a series of light showers had formed. The depth of these showers was limited by a capping inversion, or lid, at around 2.5 km. The deep thunderstorm convection developed from one of these showers when the convection broke through the lid and ascended up to the next inversion, associated with a tropopause fold at around 6 km. A series of clear-air reflectivity RHIs are used to map the height of the capping inversion and its lifting resulting from the ascent along the convergence line. The origins of the lid are tracked back to some descent from the midtroposphere along dry adiabats. The strength of the lid was weaker along a northwest-to-southe...

Neither North nor South: The Liberal Democrat Performance in the 2005 General Election

Abstract In the 2005 General Election, the Liberal Democrats increased their share of the vote by 4%, winning 62 seats in Parliament. However, the geography of Liberal Democrat improvement was uneven. In this paper we explore the factors which contributed to this pattern. Two features stand out. First, unlike in recent elections, advances in Liberal Democrat support were neither in their heartlands nor predominantly in areas of local election success. Rather their vote share increased most in university constituencies and in areas with large Muslim populations. We estimate the combination of the education vote and the Muslim vote may have won the party as many as 14 seats. Second there was a change in the relationship with the other major parties. In recent elections the Liberal Democrats had benefited from tactical switching from Labour with whom they had shared an informal anti‐Conservative alliance. In 2005 the Liberal Democrats gained support in the Labour heartlands, but struggled to convert the bedrock of Labour support in areas where they were challenging the Conservatives, or even to hold on to support where they were defending seats in the face of a Conservative challenge. Our findings add further credence to the argument that, in a first‐past‐the‐post system, a third party can only advance incrementally, taking advantage of whatever favourable contest and context specific factors prevail.

Yellow fever? The political geography of liberal voting in Great Britain

Abstract The rise of the Labour Party after World War I forced the Liberal Party in Britain back into the nonconformist and remote ‘Celtic Fringe’, where local identity and religion rather than class remained the dominant political cleavages. The party has struggled to break out of these Liberal ‘heartlands’ ever since. However, in the 1997 General Election the Liberal Democrats won a total of 46 constituencies, their best result since 1929, despite a fall in their national share of the vote. While historical voting patterns and the level of religious nonconformity can help explain the success in the traditional heartlands seats we must turn to contemporary reasons for why the party were able to make gains in areas of historical weakness. Bridging the credibility gap through success at the local level or in by-elections has been particularly vital for the party. Building on the understanding gained from qualitative interviews with the party elite and case studies in key constituencies, we analyze the basis of Liberal Democrat support in 1997. Models that include data on historical patterns, demographics and the local political context are found to be particularly successful in explaining the party’s support.

Retaining the Peers: How Peer Review Triumphs over League Tables and Faulty Accounting in the Assessment of Political Science Research

From the small acorn of a pilot study in 1986 to the current controversy over the future of research assessment in United Kingdom universities, researchers have learned to live with (if not love) the practice of having their research evaluated by the Research Assessment Exercise (RAE).Apparently dinner parties throughout the land resound to the complaints of academics about the intolerable pressure the RAE places on them, although I cannot be sure myself since I am far too busy to attend dinner parties.

Convection forced by a descending dry layer and low-level moist convergence

Abstract A narrow line of convective showers was observed over southern England on 18 July 2005 during the Convective Storm Initiation Project (CSIP). The showers formed behind a cold front (CF), beneath two apparently descending dry layers (i.e. sloping so that they descended relative to the instruments observing them). The lowermost dry layer was associated with a tropopause fold from a depression, which formed 2 d earlier from a breaking Rossby wave, located northwest of the UK. The uppermost dry layer had fragmented from the original streamer due to rotation around the depression (This rotation was also responsible for the observations of apparent descent—ascent would otherwise be seen behind a CF). The lowermost dry layer descended over the UK and overran higher θw air beneath it, resulting in potential instability. Combined with a surface convergence line (which triggered the convection but had less impact on the convective available potential energy than the potential instability), convection was forced up to 5.5 km where the uppermost dry layer capped it. The period when convection was possible was very short, thus explaining the narrowness of the shower band. Convective Storm Initiation Project observations and model data are presented to illustrate the unique processes in this case.

Doppler lidar observations of sensible heat flux and intercomparisons with a ground-based energy balance station and WRF model output

This is an open access article - Copyright @ 2009 E. Schweizerbartsche Verlagsbuchhandlung

Developing statistical literacy using real-world data: investigating socioeconomic secondary data resources used in research and teaching

Increasing volumes of statistical data are being made available on the open web, including from the World Bank. This ‘data deluge’ provides both opportunities and challenges. Good use of these data requires statistical literacy. This paper presents results from a project that set out to better understand how socioeconomic secondary data are being used in helping to develop quantitative skills in UK university social sciences and focuses on the World Bank data in support of this. Evidence of real-world data use to develop statistically literate social science students is presented. This underpins capacity-building in UK social sciences, a need recognized by research councils, statistical organizations and other bodies. The work has helped uncover evidence of good practice in teaching and research to inform others who wish to support their students in becoming statistically literate using real-world data. The challenge is to share and replicate this good practice (mainly in economics and econometrics) in other areas of social and educational research which are less well served.

Two Steps Forward One Step Back; The Liberal Democrats 2001 General Election Performance in Perspective

Elections are usually about forming the Government. But this election, uniquely, has been just as much about forming the Opposition. Charles Kennedy, Observer, 10 June 2001.

EDITORS’ INTRODUCTION TO THE 51ST EDITION OF REPRESENTATION

We are delighted to introduce this edition of Representation to mark the 50th anniversary of this journal. The first edition, published in 1960, was started as an in-house journal for the Electoral Reform Society. It served to give members news of recent elections and by-elections, informed members of upcoming annual general meetings, reported back on educational projects and advocated for the imposition of proportional representation providing advice on how to press members of the Labour Party to discuss this issue. The publication was four pages long and read only by a few people, all members of the Electoral Reform Society. The journal has come a very long way in the last 50 years. As a publication of the McDougall Trust, it is now recognised as one of the premier journals of empirical democratic theory. It is a peer-reviewed journal where all manuscripts received are sent for double-blind review by independent anonymous referees. It boasts an Editorial Board of 22 political scientists and political philosophers from around the world who are indisputably leaders in their fields. The journal has two editors, an associate editor and an editorial assistant. Routledge now publishes four issues per year with each issue typically offering five or six academic papers, an election report and a critical review of a recent book on democracy or representation widely construed. Every year since 2008, Representation has offered a mini-symposium or devoted an entire edition to a relevant and important topic concerned with democratic representation often guest edited by an expert in this field. Representation’s readership is now global with members of the following influential groups—the American Political Science Association (APSA), International Political Science Association (IPSA) Elections, Public Opinion and Parties Association (EPOP), Political Science Association (PSA) and Political Science Association Ireland (PSAI)—receiving individual print subscriptions at a special rate. The Journal has also been adopted by the ‘Representation and Electoral Systems’, specialist section of the APSA where members of the section can access the journal online as part of their subscription. As a result, we now receive submissions from across the globe on all areas of democracy and representation and this covers both empirical and theoretical concerns. Since 2008 Representation has aimed at and succeeded in achieving the following aims. It has and continues to publish cutting-edge articles about the study of elections and voting systems throughout the world. It encourages debate about democratic practices around the world and seeks to explore the interface between democratic practice and theory. It has produced a number of important symposia whose titles give an indication of the rich range of topics and international concerns. Since 2008 the following symposia have been published: