Edward Fieldhouse

Winning the Local Vote: The Effectiveness of Constituency Campaign Spending in Great Britain, 1983–1992

Much recent analysis of British politics has assumed, explicitly or implicitly, that constituency campaigns have no impact upon an electorate that draws on an increasingly nationalized media for its information. We employ data on constituency campaign spending to challenge this interpretation. Local party campaigners are rational in their use of funds, spending most in seats where the competition is close and least where there is little hope of winning. What is more, campaign spending is clearly associated with voting, increasing support for the spending party and decreasing support for its rivals. Contrary to the accepted wisdom, local campaign spending can result in important shifts in the vote. However, local campaigning seems to be of much more value to challengers than to incumbents.

Routes into education and employment for young Pakistani and Bangladeshi women in the UK

The article examines the educational and employment experiences and aspirations of young Pakistani and Bangladeshi people living in Oldham, in Great Manchester. Many young people demonstrated high aspirations and high levels of participation, particularly in relation to the educational and occupational level of their parents. Explanatory factors include the cultural value of education among Asian groups, the desire by parents to ensure success for their children and the ethnic penalty which these young people incur in the labour market. However, not all Pakistani and Bangladeshi young people have these aspirations. Girls who wished to continue their education faced a more complex situation than boys; for girls it was important to avoid jeopardizing the family honour. Nonetheless, national statistics show a marked increase in the numbers of young Pakistani and Bangladeshi women in full-time undergraduate courses in recent years. Women with degree level qualifications showed considerable determination to combine paid employment with family life.

The Labour Market Prospects for Pakistani and Bangladeshi Women

This paper examines change and diversity in the lives of Pakistani and Bangladeshi women using qualitative interviews based in Oldham and secondary analysis of the Fourth National Ethnic Minority Survey. There was clear evidence of change across generations. Most of the older women had not been born in the UK and many were limited in their ability to speak English. This, together with a lack of formal qualifications, posed a considerable barrier to seeking paid work outside the home. In addition, many women had heavy family responsibilities that were compounded by material hardship. However, younger women who had been educated in the UK and had no language barrier saw paid work as a means to independence and self-esteem. Multivariate models showed that women with higher qualifications were much more likely to be economically active than women without qualifications or with overseas qualifications. However, the presence of dependent children had a strong negative effect. These factors also influenced the economic activity of white women but with much smaller differentials. Even with higher-level qualifications, Pakistani and Bangladeshi women experience considerable barriers to employment and have high levels of unemployment. Whilst most women subscribed strongly to the centrality of the family, it is clear that the majority will follow very different routes through the life-course from their mothers. Adherence to the lslamic faith was not, of itself, seen as a deterrent to womens participation in the labour market.

Ethnic Minority Unemployment and Spatial Mismatch: The Case of London

Unemployment amongst Britains ethnic minorities is approximately twice that of the white population. Spatial mismatch theory suggests that the concentration of the ethnic minority population in declining inner-city areas may be partially responsible for part of this disparity. Alternative explanations include different population characteristics and racial discrimination. This paper uses data from the 1991 Census to explore the geography of minority ethnic unemployment in Greater London and attempts to evaluate the importance of the geographical distribution of ethnic minorities (and other factors) in understanding unemployment differences. It is argued that spatial mismatch provides an unsatisfactory explanation of Asian unemployment in London and, at best, a partial explanation of black unemployment. Rather, there is a complex interrelationship between unemployment, ethnicity and spatial location which is mediated by the local context.

Does diversity damage social capital?:A comparative study of neighbourhood diversity and social capital in the US and Britain

Abstract. A number of scholars have noted a negative relationship between ethnic diversityand social capital or social trust, especially in the US. Evidence from other countries has beenmore mixed and sometimes contradictory. In this paper we provide the first Anglo-Americancomparative analysis of the relationship between neighbourhood diversity and social capital,and show how this relationship varies across ethnic categories. We apply multilevel structuralequation models to individual level data from the 2000 Citizen Benchmark Survey for the USand the 2005 Citizenship Survey for Great Britain. The findings suggest that while for attitudi-nal social capital among Whites the negative underlying relationship with diversity is apparentin both countries, the effect is much weaker or reversed for minority groups. For structuralsocial capital the negative relationship is apparent for minorities but not Whites, but this ismainly attributable to other neighbourhood characteristics. Resume. Un certain nombre d’universitaires ont note une relation negative entre la diversiteethnique et le capital social ou la confiance sociale, surtout aux Etats-Unis. D’autres pays, parcontre, offrent des constats plus mitiges et parfois contradictoires. Dans cet article, nous presen-tons la premiere analyse comparative anglo-americaine de la relation entre la diversite du voi-sinage et le capital social et nous demontrons comment cette relation varie selon les categoriesethniques. Nous appliquons des modelisations par equation structurelle a multiniveaux a desdonnees de niveau individuel provenant du

Deprived People or Deprived Places? Exploring the Ecological Fallacy in Studies of Deprivation with the Samples of Anonymised Records

In recent years have seen an increase in the analysis of deprivation in Britain. In most studies the unit of analysis has been geographical, such as local-government wards or districts. This reflects, in part, a reliance on small-area statistics and local-base statistics from the censuses of population. Although useful in identifying specific problem areas, this type of approach may be subject to ecological fallacy. In other words, areas of high levels of deprivation may be home to high proportions of particular social or demographic groups, but it cannot be automatically assumed that these groups are themselves deprived. Although some studies have been based on purpose-designed individual-level survey data, these often lack sufficient sample sizes to analyse effectively small subgroups of the population or to allow geographical disaggregation. The release of the Samples of Anonymised Records from the 1991 Census allows individual-level data to be used to investigate the social, demographic, and geographical dimensions of deprivation. In this paper, a threshold of deprivation will be determined and the distribution of individual-level deprivation (deprived people) will be compared with an equivalent area-level index constructed from standard census output by the use of conventional techniques.

The Effectiveness of Local Party Campaigns in 2005: Combining Evidence from Campaign Spending and Agent Survey Data

Recently there has been a renewed interest in the role of local campaigns and their effectiveness on increasing turnout and support for political parties. However, there is a long-standing debate over the best way to measure campaign effort. This article advances the current literature by using a latent variable modelling approach to utilize, for the first time, evidence frorvey of agents, official records of campaign spending and individual voter survey data to produce a combined measure of campaign effort. This measure (latent variable) is then used in a structural equation model of party performance to assess the effect of the campaign effort of the three main parties at the 2005 British general election. In terms of both the delivery and effectiveness of campaigns the parties are found to behave in a way consistent with a rational model of party behaviour, though constrained by contextual factors.

Is voting habit forming?: The longitudinal impact of a GOTV campaign in the UK

Abstract This paper examines whether voters mobilized by a Get Out The Vote (GOTV) campaign continue to turn out in a subsequent election. It thereby tests the extent to which they gain the habit of voting. The research examined electoral registers in the 2006 English local elections in the constituency of Wythenshawe and Sale East. This was the site of John and Brannan’s (2007) GOTV experiment, which had compared the impact of telephoning and door‐to‐door canvassing in the 2005 General Election. Descriptive statistics show that the downstream effect of the treatment was quite small at 3% in 2006. But the habit effect was large. Voting in 2005 raised the probability of voting in 2006 by more than half. Regression analysis confirms the size of the habit effect. The paper discusses the limitations of sample size in making statistical inferences about the prevalence of the habit effect in one location.

Tactical Voting and Party Constituency Campaigning at the 1992 General Election in England

Tactical voting has become increasingly salient in recent elections in England. However, it is not only voters who behave tactically. Political parties may also act tactically by focusing their election campaigns on marginal seats. This Note provides a unique exploration of the relationship between local campaigning and tactical voting in England, at the 1992 general election.

Ethnic minority unemployment and local labour market conditions in Great Britain

British ethnic minority unemployment rates are considerably higher than those of the white population. In 1991 the ethnic minority unemployment rate was more than double that of the white majority. One possible explanation is that Britains ethnic minorities are concentrated in areas of economic disadvantage. The authors use the 2% Individual Sample of Anonymised Records (SAR) in conjunction with area-based census data for pseudo travel-to-work areas, to explore the relative importance of individual characteristics and area characteristics on ethnic minority unemployment rates. Multilevel modelling techniques are employed to estimate simultaneously variations between individuals and between areas after allowing for variables measured at both levels of analysis. The most important differences in the propensity to unemployment are shown to be between individuals, and, compared with whites, ethnic minority groups are shown to be disadvantaged wherever they live. In general, there is also evidence of greater variation in ethnic minority unemployment between areas than there is for whites. However, there is the same underlying geography of unemployment for the black and white populations, but a slightly different pattern for Asian ethnic groups. These differences can be explained only partially by area-level characteristics. In all, it is argued that at the spatial scale which is identifiable in the Individual SAR, ethnic minority unemployment cannot be attributed to geographical distribution, though data at a finer geographical scale are needed to test this hypothesis more fully.