Andrew T. Kahn

The Extent and Consequences of P-Hacking in Science

A focus on novel, confirmatory, and statistically significant results leads to substantial bias in the scientific literature. One type of bias, known as “p-hacking,” occurs when researchers collect or select data or statistical analyses until nonsignificant results become significant. Here, we use text-mining to demonstrate that p-hacking is widespread throughout science. We then illustrate how one can test for p-hacking when performing a meta-analysis and show that, while p-hacking is probably common, its effect seems to be weak relative to the real effect sizes being measured. This result suggests that p-hacking probably does not drastically alter scientific consensuses drawn from meta-analyses.

Females prefer to associate with males with longer intromittent organs in mosquitofish.

Sexual selection is a major force behind the rapid evolution of male genital morphology among species. Most within-species studies have focused on sexual selection on male genital traits owing to events during or after copulation that increase a males share of paternity. Very little attention has been given to whether genitalia are visual signals that cause males to vary in their attractiveness to females and are therefore under pre-copulatory sexual selection. Here we show that, on average, female eastern mosquitofish Gambusia holbrooki spent more time in association with males who received only a slight reduction in the length of the intromittent organ (‘gonopodium’) than males that received a greater reduction. This preference was, however, only expressed when females chose between two large males; for small males, there was no effect of genital size on female association time.

A rigorous comparison of sexual selection indexes via simulations of diverse mating systems

Significance How does sexual selection differ between males and females? What is its role in the speciation process? Answering such questions requires a reliable method to measure sexual selection, so that we can compare its strength between the sexes and across taxa. The development of appropriate measures has led to sustained controversy, however, with no measure being widely accepted. We provide to our knowledge the first rigorous comparison of indexes of sexual selection. Our results unambiguously support the use of a recently defined measure, the Jones index, over more established indexes of sexual selection such as the Bateman gradient. Sexual selection is a cornerstone of evolutionary theory, but measuring it has proved surprisingly difficult and controversial. Various proxy measures—e.g., the Bateman gradient and the opportunity for sexual selection—are widely used in empirical studies. However, we do not know how reliably these measures predict the strength of sexual selection across natural systems, and most perform poorly in theoretical worst-case scenarios. Here we provide a rigorous comparison of eight commonly used indexes of sexual selection. We simulated 500 biologically plausible mating systems, based on the templates of five well-studied species that cover a diverse range of reproductive life histories. We compared putative indexes to the actual strength of premating sexual selection, measured as the strength of selection on a simulated “mating trait.” This method sidesteps a key weakness of empirical studies, which lack an appropriate yardstick against which proxy measures can be assessed. Our model predicts that, far from being useless, the best proxy measures reliably track the strength of sexual selection across biologically realistic scenarios. The maximum intensity of precopulatory sexual selection s′max (the Jones index) outperformed all other indexes and was highly correlated with the strength of sexual selection. In contrast, the Bateman gradient and the opportunity for sexual selection were poor predictors of sexual selection, despite their continuing popularity.

Meta-analysis and sexual selection: past studies and future possibilities

The action of sexual selection is highly variable among taxa. This creates challenges when trying to generalize (e.g. determine if a particular relationship exists based on its average strength, or if it varies in response to theoretically relevant factors). Consequently, accounting for moderating factors is likely to be crucial to explain differences in sexual selection among studies. In principle, given measures of key theoretical parameters we can predict the strength of sexual selection on different sexual signals, the benefits of mate choice, the extent of sex differences (e.g. in immune function or survival) and the likely life history trade-offs between investment into different sexual traits (e.g. sperm vs. courtship) or non-sexual traits (e.g. immune function, traits that increase longevity, parental care). How well does empirical data support theoretical expectations? First, we provide a short history of the use of meta-analysis in sexual selection studies. We present a table summarizing 94 meta-analyses that have asked questions about sexual selection or allied topics of interest to those studying sexual selection (e.g. the link between heterozygosity and fitness). Second, we list the main ways that meta-analysis has been used in sexual selection work and provide illustrative examples. Third, we provide practical advice to identify questions that are ripe for meta-analysis. We highlight 11 sexual selection topics where meta-analyses are needed (e.g. there are no meta-analyses testing game theory models of fighting contests). Finally, we discuss some general issues that will arise as the use of meta-analysis in sexual selection studies becomes more sophisticated.

Do females preferentially associate with males given a better start in life

A poor start in life owing to a restricted diet can have readily detectable detrimental consequences for many adult life-history traits. However, some costs such as smaller adult body size are potentially eliminated when individuals modify their development. For example, male mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki) that have reduced early food intake undergo compensatory growth and delay maturation so that they eventually mature at the same size as males that develop normally. But do subtle effects of a poor start persist? Specifically, does a males developmental history affect his subsequent attractiveness to females? Females prefer to associate with larger males but, controlling for body length, we show that females spent less time in association with males that underwent compensatory growth than with males that developed normally.

Adaptive sex allocation in anticipation of changes in offspring mating opportunities

Sex allocation theory explains why most species produce equal numbers of sons and daughters, and highlights situations that select for deviation from this norm. Past research has, however, heavily focused on situations with discrete generations. When temporally varying generational overlap affects future mate availability, models predict cyclical shifts in sex allocation, but these predictions have not yet been appropriately tested. Here we provide evidence that mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki) populations possess a suitable life history: some autumn-born females bred alongside their own offspring, while such overlap was rare or absent for spring-born females and for all males. Our analytic model of sex allocation for these populations produced a perfect rank-order correlation between observed birth sex ratio biases and theoretical predictions, with stronger biases observed as the extent of female generational overlap increased. This is the first robust evidence that sex allocation theory accounts for cases when mating opportunities vary predictably over time.

Weapons or mating signals? Claw shape and mate choice in a fiddler crab

Males often possess traits, such as horns, claws, and tusks, which are used during male–male combat. Studies suggest that selection has fine tuned these weapons to improve their effectiveness and that the shape of these weapons provides cues for males to assess the strength of rivals. Similarly, females might also assess a male’s weaponry to determine his value as a mate. The largest weapon relative to body size is the major claw of male fiddler crabs (genus: Uca). Males use their claws both as a weapon and as a courtship signal, waving it to attract females. We used robotic crabs in two-choice experiments to test female mating preferences based on male claw shape in Uca mjoebergi. First, females did not prefer conspecific claws over any of three alternatively shaped stimuli matched for color and for the rate and pattern of waving. The alternative stimuli were two different heterospecific claws and a plain rectangular shape. Second, females significantly preferred the alternative stimuli when they were presented at a faster wave rate. We conclude that claw shape in U. mjoebergi has not evolved under sexual selection imposed by female mating preferences and is more likely to have evolved under selection for effectiveness during male–male competition.

Female preferences for timing in a fiddler crab with synchronous courtship waving displays

Studies of sexual communication typically focus on the design and information content of a signal of interest, but the timing of signal production relative to nearby competitors can be crucial. Male fiddler crabs, Uca mjoebergi, court females with a stereotyped claw-waving display, and males are often observed waving in synchrony with nearby claw-waving males. Using female mate preference experiments with robots that imitate male claw waves, we found evidence that females are more attracted to males whose waves immediately precede a synchronous group of waves (leaders); females also favoured males that waved in opposite phase to a synchronous group (alternators). By contrast, males whose waves lagged behind a group of synchronous wavers (laggards) were no more attractive. We discuss a simple sensory process that could explain how this female preference arises. Our results agree with past findings suggesting that synchrony in fiddler crabs occurs as an epiphenomenon of adaptive male responses to female preferences.

PATERNITY PROTECTION CAN PROVIDE A KICK-START FOR THE EVOLUTION OF MALE-ONLY PARENTAL CARE

Sperm competition and uncertainty of paternity hamper the evolution of male parental care. Thus, maternal care predominates in most taxa. What if males can, however, limit cuckoldry by guarding the eggs postmating? Here, we show that this provides a reason to reconsider an old and nowadays rather discredited hypothesis: that external fertilization is associated with male care because the parent who releases its gametes first can depart leaving the other in a “cruel bind,” having to care for the offspring. In our model, protection of paternity provides an additional incentive for the male to stay associated with its young. When we then assume that offspring survive better if guarded, paternity protection proves enough to kick‐start the evolution of male‐only parental care from a scenario with no care. This fits with data from fishes, where male‐only care is associated with external fertilization, whereas female‐only care almost always evolves after an initial transition to internal fertilization. Our model unifies disparate hypotheses regarding parental care roles and provides support for the idea that care roles can be influenced by sex differences in selection to be physically close to the offspring, including selection that is initially not based on offspring survival.

Sex-specific maternal effects in a viviparous fish

Mothers vary in their effects on their offspring, but studies of variation in maternal effects rarely ask whether differences between mothers are consistent for sons and daughters. Here, we analysed maternal effects in the mosquitofish Gambusia holbrooki for development time and adult size of sons and daughters, and a primary male sexual character (gonopodium length). We found substantial maternal effects on all traits, most notably for gonopodium length. There were significant correlations within each sex for maternal effects on different traits, indicative of trade-offs between development rate and adult size. By contrast, there was no evidence of any consistency in maternal effects on sons and daughters. This suggests that the evolution of maternal effects will follow independent trajectories dependent on sex-specific selection on offspring. Importantly, failure to recognize the sex-specific nature of maternal effects in this population would have substantially underestimated the extent of their variation between mothers.