Andrew Tsang

How Does Loan-to-Value Policy Strengthen Banks’ Resilience to Property Price Shocks – Evidence from Hong Kong

This paper sheds light on the transmission mechanism of loan-to-value (LTV) policy to financial stability by providing three findings from Hong Kong. First, there is evidence that LTV cap tightening since 2009 has dampened both borrowers’ leverage and credit growth, and that lower leverage has played a major role in strengthening banks’ resilience to property price shocks. Second, the effect on loan growth is found to be state-dependent due to loan market disequilibrium, with a much stronger impact on loan supply than on demand, suggesting that calibrating this tool to curb loan growth needs an accurate estimate of both loan demand and supply. Operationally, this could pose challenges for policymakers. Finally, we find evidence of low responsiveness of housing demand to caps on LTV ratios, which is suggestive of a weak direct pass-through of LTV policy to the property market. These findings together support the view that operationally it would be optimal for LTV policy to primarily target household leverage, and that there are limitations in using this instrument to stabilise credit growth and property prices.

Effectiveness of Loan-to-Value Ratio Policy and Its Transmission Mechanism – Empirical Evidence from Hong Kong

This paper provides a non-technical summary of two recent empirical studies to shed light on key important issues regarding the implementation of loan-to-value (LTV) policy as a macroprudential tool, including its effectiveness, potential drawbacks and its transmission mechanism to improve financial stability. Empirical evidence suggests that LTV policy is effective in reducing systemic risk associated with boom-and-bust cycles in property markets. Although the LTV policy may be associated with higher liquidity constraints on homebuyers, we show that the mortgage insurance program (MIP) can mitigate this drawback without undermining the effectiveness of LTV policy. Thus, MIPs play an important role in enhancing the net benefits of LTV policy. Concerning the transmission mechanism, empirical evidence suggests that the policy pass-through to property market activities may be weak. By contrast, there is clear evidence that tightening the LTV cap would reduce household leverage and credit growth, and that lower leverage plays a major role in strengthening banks’ resilience to property price shocks. This finding supports the view that household leverage would be an optimal target of LTV policy.

Implications of Liquidity Management of Global Banks for Host Countries — Evidence from Foreign Bank Branches in Hong Kong*

Using a regulatory dataset of foreign bank branches in Hong Kong, this study finds evidence of the international transmission of funding shocks from home countries of global banks through their internal capital markets during the 2007-08 financial crisis. Global banks are found to buffer parent-bank liquidity shocks by repatriating cross-border internal funding, leading to reductions in loan supply by branches in Hong Kong. Branches with a higher loan-to-asset ratio are estimated to cut loan supply sharper than their counterparts. More liquid assets held by parent banks and central bank liquidity are found to reduce the extent of shock transmission significantly

The Renminbi Central Parity: An Empirical Investigation

On August 11 2015, China revamped its procedure of setting the official central parity of the renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar. Our empirical investigation shows that the intertemporal dynamics of China’s central parity are not the same before and after this policy change. They are more variable and have a few new determining factors. Both the deviation of the RMB offshore rate from the central parity and the US dollar index are the two significant determinants of the central parity both before and after the policy change. The VIX index has explanatory power before August 2015, but not after. After August 2015, the onshore RMB rate and the difference between the one-month offshore and onshore RMB forward points show a significant impact on the central parity. While the US dollar index effect remains, we find no evidence of a role for the RMB exchange rate against the currency basket revealed by China in December 2015 in the fixing process.

Divergent Monetary Policies and International Dollar Credit: Evidence from Bank-Level Data

This paper uses a comprehensive and detailed bank†level data set to study how the divergence of central bank balance sheet policy in the US vis†A †vis the euro area and Japan would affect the supply of international US dollar loans by global banks. Our empirical findings support the view that the contractionary effect of US monetary normalization on global dollar liquidity would be offset by an expansionary effect from continued supply of US dollar loans by euro area and Japanese banks. The net effect, however, is crucially dependent on the stability of global foreign exchange markets and investor perceptions of the default risks of global banks. Our findings show that there could be a significant contraction of the supply of international US dollar loans if and when the US monetary normalization coincides with a dislocation of the FX swap market and a rise of bank default risks. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications and different data sets.

Chinese Local Bond Spreads, Monetary Policy and 'Misallocation'

We examine the impact of Chinese monetary policies on the excess bond yields of Chinese local bonds issued by Chinese local government entities. We find that an expansion in M2 generally raises the excess yields of the bonds of Chinese local government entities, and the impact is amplified for local bonds issued by local governments that are characterized as having a high degree of existing resource misallocation. Our estimation results confirm that local government bond excess yields can be used as an indicator of the riskiness of Chinese local government debt.

To guide or not to guide? Quantitative monetary policy tools and macroeconomic dynamics in China

This paper discusses the macroeconomic effects of China’s informal banking regulatory tool “win-dow guidance,” introduced in 1998. Using an open-economy DSGE model that includes the com-mercial banking sector, we study the stabilizing effects of this non-standard quantitative monetary policy tool and the implications of quantity-based vs. price-based monetary policy instruments for welfare. The analyses are relevant to the current overhaul of Chinese monetary policy.

The Diffusion and Dynamics of Producer Prices, Deflationary Pressure Across Asian Countries, and the Role of China

The ongoing producer price deflation in China and other Asian economies is a genuine concern. In particular, Chinai¯s producer prices are down a cumulative 12.7 percent from their peak in 2011, extending the stretch of negative producer price readings for 52 months in a row. Given the problem of overcapacity and heavy debt burden, this persistent decline in the producer price index could hurt corporate revenue, which limits fixed investments and the countrys overall growth. Against this background, the paper analyses the determinants of the producer price decline across 11 Asian economies, and finds that the recent synchronous and protracted producer price deflation is driven by weak production growth, sharp declines in commodity prices, spillover effects from Chinai¯s producer price deflation and policy uncertainty and, to a lesser extent, exchange rate pass-through. Since China is at the heart of the regioni¯s producer price deflation challenge, we also discuss the necessary structural adjustments in China to cope with the decline and head off deflationary threats.