Aneta Włodarczyk

Modeling the impact of the weather factors on the electrical energy consumption in one of the regions in the southern Poland

The aim of this study is to present a new approach for analyzing the effect of temperatures and wind speed on the variability of the daily demand for electrical energy in Silesian region. Specific nature of the time series used in this paper, concerning electrical energy consumption and the weather variables, requires application of a special class of models - ARFIMAX-GARCH. The electricity demand shows a significant trend due to socioeconomic factors and daily and monthly seasonal effects. The result of the empirical study show that the relation between electricity load and temperature is affected by an autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity specification and by a dynamic component of temperature on load

The Environmental Kuznets Curve in Poland - Evidence From Threshold Cointegration Analysis

The article aims to look at the long-run equilibrium relationship between per capita greenhouse gas emissions and per capita real GDP (EKC hypothesis) in an asymmetric framework using the non-linear threshold cointegration and error correction methodology for Polish economy during the period 2000 to 2012 (quarterly data). To test the robustness of the results the additional explanatory variable (per capita energy consumption) is added to the EKC model. The EKC hypothesis is tested using threshold autoregressive (TAR) and momentum threshold autoregressive (MTAR) cointegration method. Moreover, the threshold error correction model (TECM) is implemented in order to examine both the short-run and the long-run Granger-causal relationship between per capita greenhouse gas emissions and per capita income. We found strong evidence in favour of the EKC hypothesis for the Polish case and additionally we confirmed that adjustment of deviations toward the long-run equilibrium is asymmetric.

Use of Mulifactor Models with Garch Structure in Carbon Emissions Risk Management

Abstract Tightening the environmental norms that result from the priorities of the EU 2030 Energy and Climate Package and the reform of the EU ETS have caused the necessity to implement an effective system of managing the risk of carbon dioxide emission and integrate it with the existing enterprise management system. Evaluation of the direction and strength of correlation between EUA price changes and energy companies stock price returns is crucial from point of view the managerial staff making proper decisions about the use of the CO2 emission permits by energy companies. It is an important stage of carbon emission risk management process. The aim of this paper is to verify the possibility of use the multifactor models with GARCH structure as a tool supporting the carbon emission management process in energy companies. Empirical analysis is connected with the estimation of multifactor models with GARCH structure in the Phase II and Phase III of the EU ETS functioning for two groups of Polish energy companies: group of the Respect Index companies and others. Such an approach allows to check whether the Respect Index companies are more robust than others on the carbon emission risk, in particular the EUA price risk associated with the intensification works on modifying the EU ETS functioning. We found that the impact of EUA price changes on energy companies stock returns and their volatility is statistically insignificant in case of all Respect Index companies.

Regime-dependent Assessment of Risk Concerning the International Aviation Inclusion Into the EU ETS

In this article the European Union Aviation Allowances (EUAA) price risk, associated with the activity of aircraft operators within the European Economic Area (EEA), has been evaluated across the low and high volatility periods occurring on the carbon permits market. It is found that Markov-switching heteroscedasticity models distinguish well between two volatility regimes, as well as three volatility regimes on the EUAA futures market, and that the assess-ments of EUAA price risk are clearly different in the regimes. These findings may be explained by the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) design and the changes in both the EU climate policy rules and global regulations in the scope of CO2 emissions by international aviation.

Assessment of Selected Elements of Logistic Customer Service for Management in Transport Enterprises—The Multiple Discriminant Analysis

The aim of the paper is the assessment of selected elements of logistic customer service for management as perceived by the recipients of services on example of commercial cargo motor transport enterprises. The surveys of the logistic service level as perceived by the recipients of the services of Polish Silesian Province’s commercial cargo motor transport enterprises, carried out using the Servqual method, enabled the quality assessment of the logistic service elements of business entities included in the test sample. Considering the results of classification of the most significant logistic customer service elements at the enterprises under study, an attempt was made to examine the effect of logistic customer service element quality on service correctness, service timeliness, service completeness, service provision promptness, technological advancement of the fleet, and service availability. For the determination of the above-mentioned significance, the multiple discriminant analysis was employed. The computations were made using the STATISTICA 10.0 package.

Modelling of air micropollutant’s fluctuations on the background of the primary air pollutants emission as a tool supporting environmental management in thermal power plant

AbstractPower industry belongs to those branches of the industry in Poland whose impact on the environment is extremely negative, especially due to the emission of different types of pollutants into atmosphere. Therefore, appropriate prevention or dealing with the threats to the natural environment is a key issue of the environmental management system in each thermal power plant. That involves planning, designing and implementation of such activities that may prevent or reduce air pollution emissions to the safe level. These activities should be directed not only on the primary air pollutants (CO2, CO, SO2, NOx and dust), but also micropollutants (Cl2, Cu, Cr, Pb and F), which pose a serious threat to the natural environment, as well as peoples’ health and life. In order to plan appropriate ventures aimed at reducing the micropollutants emissions, it is imperative to conduct the analysis of the micropollutants emissions size changeability in time. Seasonal patterns for micropollutants emissions in the the...

The Use of Weather Variables in the Modeling of Demand for Electricity in One of the Regions in the Southern Poland

The main objective of the paper is the verification of usefulness of the ARFIMA-FIGARCH class models in the description of tendencies in the energy consumption in a selected region of the southern Poland taking into consideration weather variables.