Angel J. Ubide

Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, 'Ins', 'Outs', and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework

This paper presents a methodology for calculating bilateral equilibrium exchange rates for a panel of currencies in a way that guarantees global consistency. The methodology has three parts: a theoretical model that encompasses the balance of payments and the Balassa-Samuelson approaches to real exchange rate determination; an unobserved components decomposition in a cointegration framework that identifies a time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate; and an algebraic transformation that extracts bilateral equilibrium nominal rates. The results uncover that, by the start of Stage III of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the euro was significantly undervalued against the dollar and the pound, but overvalued against the yen. The paper also shows that the four major EMU currencies locked their parities with the euro at a rate close to equilibrium.

Comovements and Sectoral Interdependence: Evidence for Latin America, East Asia, and Europe

This paper analyzes common economic patterns across countries and economic sectors in Latin America, East Asia, and Europe for the period 1970-94 by means of an error-components model that decomposes real value-added growth in each country into common international effects, sector-specific effects, and countryspecific effects. We find significant comovements in the European and East Asian samples. In the Latin American sample, however, we find country-specific components to be more important than common patterns. These results are robust to different sub-sample time spans and different sub-sample country groups.

Mind the Gap: What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?

Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending on the preferences of the modeler. This model selection problem leads to a substantial degree of uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the output gap, which can reduce its usefulness as a policy tool. To overcome this problem, in this paper we attempt to insert some discipline into this search by providing two metrics-inflation forecasting and business cycle dating-against which different options can be evaluated using aggregated euro-area GDP data. Our results suggest that Gali, Gertler, and Lopez-Salidos (2001) inefficiency wedge performs best in inflation forecasting and production function methodology dominates in the prediction of turning points. If, however, a unique methodology must be selected, the quadratic trend delivers the best overall results.

Sectorial Macroeconomic Interdependencies : Evidence for Latin America, East Asia and Europe

This paper analyzes common economic patterns across countries and economic sectors in Latin America, East Asia and Europe for the period 1970-94 by means of an error-components model that decomposes real value added growth in each country into common international effects, sector-specific effects and country-specific effects. We find significant comovements in the European and East Asian samples. In the Latin American sample, however, we find country-specific components to be more important than common patterns. These results are robust to different sub-sample time spans and different sub-sample country groups.

International Transmission of Shocks in a Business-Cycle Model Under Imperfect Competition

This paper investigates the effects of introducing imperfect competition in an international business-cycle model. We provide some international evidence on markups and analyze the implications of increasing returns to scale and monopolistic competition for the effects and the international transmission of technology and government spending shocks. We also consider exogenous markup fluctuations as a source of shocks and of transmission of business cycles. We show that imperfect competition improves the behavior of a standard model driven by technology shocks, although the behavior of foreign trade variables remains unexplained. We also show that an imperfectly competitive model driven by government shocks can explain the international business cycle at least as well as a model driven by technology shocks.