Angela Vidal-Jordana

Defining high, medium and low impact prognostic factors for developing multiple sclerosis.

Natural history studies have identified factors that predict evolution to multiple sclerosis or risk of disability accumulation over time. Although these studies are based on large multicentre cohorts with long follow-ups, they have limitations such as lack of standardized protocols, a retrospective data collection or lack of a systematic magnetic resonance imaging acquisition and analysis protocol, often resulting in failure to take magnetic resonance and oligoclonal bands into account as joint covariates in the prediction models. To overcome some of these limitations, the aim of our study was to identify and stratify baseline demographic, clinical, radiological and biological characteristics that might predict multiple sclerosis development and disability accumulation using a multivariate approach based on a large prospective cohort of patients with clinically isolated syndromes. From 1995 to 2013, 1058 patients with clinically isolated syndromes were included. We evaluated the influence of baseline prognostic factors on the risk for developing clinically definite multiple sclerosis, McDonald multiple sclerosis, and disability accumulation (Expanded Disability Status Scale score of 3.0) based on univariate (hazard ratio with 95% confidence intervals) and multivariate (adjusted hazard ratio with 95% confidence intervals) Cox regression models. We ultimately included 1015 patients followed for a mean of 81 (standard deviation = 57) months. Female/male ratio was 2.1. Females exhibited a similar risk of conversion to multiple sclerosis and of disability accumulation compared to males. Each younger decade at onset was associated with a greater risk of conversion to multiple sclerosis and with a protective effect on disability. Patients with optic neuritis had a lower risk of clinically definite multiple sclerosis [hazard ratio 0.6 (0.5-0.8)] and disability progression [hazard ratio 0.5 (0.3-0.8)]; however, this protective effect remained marginal only for disability [adjusted hazard ratio 0.6 (0.4-1.0)] in adjusted models. The presence of oligoclonal bands increased the risk of clinically definite multiple sclerosis [adjusted hazard ratio 1.3 (1.0-1.8)] and of disability [adjusted hazard ratio 2.0 (1.2-3.6)] independently of other factors. The presence of 10 or more brain lesions on magnetic resonance increased the risk of clinically definite multiple sclerosis [adjusted hazard ratio 11.3 (6.7-19.3)] and disability [adjusted hazard ratio 2.9 (1.4-6.0)]. Disease-modifying treatment before the second attack reduced the risk of McDonald multiple sclerosis [adjusted hazard ratio 0.6 (0.4-0.9)] and disability accumulation [adjusted hazard ratio 0.5 (0.3-0.9)]. We conclude that the demographic and topographic characteristics are low-impact prognostic factors, the presence of oligoclonal bands is a medium-impact prognostic factor, and the number of lesions on brain magnetic resonance is a high-impact prognostic factor.

Radiologically Isolated Syndrome: 5-Year Risk for an Initial Clinical Event

Objective To report the 5-year risk and to identify risk factors for the development of a seminal acute or progressive clinical event in a multi-national cohort of asymptomatic subjects meeting 2009 RIS Criteria. Methods Retrospectively identified RIS subjects from 22 databases within 5 countries were evaluated. Time to the first clinical event related to demyelination (acute or 12-month progression of neurological deficits) was compared across different groups by univariate and multivariate analyses utilizing a Cox regression model. Results Data were available in 451 RIS subjects (F: 354 (78.5%)). The mean age at from the time of the first brain MRI revealing anomalies suggestive of MS was 37.2 years (y) (median: 37.1 y, range: 11–74 y) with mean clinical follow-up time of 4.4 y (median: 2.8 y, range: 0.01–21.1 y). Clinical events were identified in 34% (standard error = 3%) of individuals within a 5-year period from the first brain MRI study. Of those who developed symptoms, 9.6% fulfilled criteria for primary progressive MS. In the multivariate model, age [hazard ratio (HR): 0.98 (95% CI: 0.96–0.99); p = 0.03], sex (male) [HR: 1.93 (1.24–2.99); p = 0.004], and lesions within the cervical or thoracic spinal cord [HR: 3.08 (2.06–4.62); p = <0.001] were identified as significant predictors for the development of a first clinical event. Interpretation These data provide supportive evidence that a meaningful number of RIS subjects evolve to a first clinical symptom. An age <37 y, male sex, and spinal cord involvement appear to be the most important independent predictors of symptom onset.

Early brain pseudoatrophy while on natalizumab therapy is due to white matter volume changes

Background: Investigation of atrophy data from a pivotal natalizumab trial has demonstrated an increased rate of volume loss, compared to placebo, after the first year of therapy. It was considered to be probably due to a pseudoatrophy effect. Objective: To assess grey and white matter volume changes and their relation to global brain volume changes and to baseline inflammation, for patients under natalizumab therapy. Methods: We selected 45 patients on natalizumab therapy for at least 24 months, with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans at baseline, 12 and 24 months. We calculated the percentage brain volume change (PBVC) for the first and second year, using SIENA software. Grey and white matter fractions (GMF and WMF, respectively) for the first year were calculated with SPM5, using lesion masks. After quality checks, six patients were excluded. We studied the predictive variables of change in brain volumes. Results: The PBVC decrease was faster during the first year (−1.10% ± 1.43%), as compared to the second (−0.51% ± 0.96%) (p = 0.037). These differences were more marked in patients with baseline gadolinium-enhancing lesions (p = 0.005). Mean GMF and WMF changes during the first year of treatment were +1.15% (n.s.) and −1.72% (p = 0.017), respectively. The presence of active lesions at baseline MRI predicted PBVC (p = 0.022) and WMF change (p = 0.026) during the first year of treatment, after adjusting for age and corticosteroid treatment. No predictors were found for GMF volume changes. Conclusion: Early brain volume loss during natalizumab therapy is mainly due to WMF volume loss and it is related to the inflammatory activity present at the onset of therapy. We found that the pseudoatrophy effect is mostly due to white matter volume changes.

Retinal layer segmentation in multiple sclerosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Structural retinal imaging biomarkers are important for early recognition and monitoring of inflammation and neurodegeneration in multiple sclerosis. With the introduction of spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT), supervised automated segmentation of individual retinal layers is possible. We aimed to investigate which retinal layers show atrophy associated with neurodegeneration in multiple sclerosis when measured with SD-OCT. METHODS In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched for studies in which SD-OCT was used to look at the retina in people with multiple sclerosis with or without optic neuritis in PubMed, Web of Science, and Google Scholar between Nov 22, 1991, and April 19, 2016. Data were taken from cross-sectional cohorts and from one timepoint from longitudinal studies (at least 3 months after onset in studies of optic neuritis). We classified data on eyes into healthy controls, multiple-sclerosis-associated optic neuritis (MSON), and multiple sclerosis without optic neuritis (MSNON). We assessed thickness of the retinal layers and we rated individual layer segmentation performance by random effects meta-analysis for MSON eyes versus control eyes, MSNON eyes versus control eyes, and MSNON eyes versus MSON eyes. We excluded relevant sources of bias by funnel plots. FINDINGS Of 25 497 records identified, 110 articles were eligible and 40 reported data (in total 5776 eyes from patients with multiple sclerosis [1667 MSON eyes and 4109 MSNON eyes] and 1697 eyes from healthy controls) that met published OCT quality control criteria and were suitable for meta-analysis. Compared with control eyes, the peripapillary retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) showed thinning in MSON eyes (mean difference -20·10 μm, 95% CI -22·76 to -17·44; p<0·0001) and in MSNON eyes (-7·41 μm, -8·98 to -5·83; p<0·0001). The macula showed RNFL thinning of -6·18 μm (-8·07 to -4·28; p<0·0001) in MSON eyes and -2·15 μm (-3·15 to -1·15; p<0·0001) in MSNON eyes compared with control eyes. Atrophy of the macular ganglion cell layer and inner plexiform layer (GCIPL) was -16·42 μm (-19·23 to -13·60; p<0·0001) for MSON eyes and -6·31 μm (-7·75 to -4·87; p<0·0001) for MSNON eyes compared with control eyes. A small degree of inner nuclear layer (INL) thickening occurred in MSON eyes compared with control eyes (0·77 μm, 0·25 to 1·28; p=0·003). We found no statistical difference in the thickness of the combined outer nuclear layer and outer plexiform layer when we compared MSNON or MSON eyes with control eyes, but we found a small degree of thickening of the combined layer when we compared MSON eyes with MSNON eyes (1·21 μm, 0·24 to 2·19; p=0·01). INTERPRETATION The largest and most robust differences between the eyes of people with multiple sclerosis and control eyes were found in the peripapillary RNFL and macular GCIPL. Inflammatory disease activity might be captured by the INL. Because of the consistency, robustness, and large effect size, we recommend inclusion of the peripapillary RNFL and macular GCIPL for diagnosis, monitoring, and research. FUNDING None.

Brain atrophy in natalizumab-treated patients: A 3-year follow-up

Background: A pseudoatrophy effect has been held responsible for the lack of net impact of natalizumab on brain volume outcomes in 2-year trials, but no data are available beyond 24 months. Objective: We aimed to investigate brain volume dynamics in natalizumab-treated patients in up to 3 years after therapy initiation with clinical correlations. Methods: Patients on natalizumab for at least 3 years were clinically assessed 3-monthly. Magnetic resonance imaging scans were performed at baseline and yearly. Brain volume changes were obtained with SIENA. Multivariate models were used to investigate the association between baseline inflammation and changes in brain volume and disability. Results: Sixty-two patients with multiple sclerosis were analysed. Mean age and disease duration were 34.7 (SD: 8.3) and 10.4 (SD: 6.6) years. Presence of gadolinium enhancement at baseline was not associated with Expanded Disability Status Scale changes (p=0.468), but was associated with larger brain volume decreases (p=0.005) in the first (p=0.024) and second year (p=0.019) but not in the third year (p=0.863). Brain volume changes at 12 and 36 months were marginally associated with disability status at month 12 (p=0.094) and 36 (p=0.084), respectively. Conclusions: Baseline inflammation affects brain volume measures up to 24 months after natalizumab initiation. A marginal association of brain volume changes with disability is present.

Significant clinical worsening after natalizumab withdrawal: Predictive factors

We aimed to single out multiple sclerosis (MS) cases with poor outcome after natalizumab withdrawal and to identify predictive variables. We ascertained 47 withdrawals, and compared their pre- and post-natalizumab periods. We objectively defined significant clinical worsening after natalizumab withdrawal as a 2-step increase in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). We performed regression models. As a group, post-natalizumab annualized relapse rate (ARR) was lower in the post-natalizumab period, and there were no differences in the mean number of gadolinium (Gd)-enhancing lesions between pre- and post-natalizumab magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Corticosteroid treatment did not change the outcomes. Eight patients (19%) presented significant clinical worsening after natalizumab withdrawal, which was predicted by a higher baseline EDSS and a 1-step EDSS increase while on natalizumab.

Treating relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: therapy effects on brain atrophy

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an immune-mediated disease of the central nervous system with a complex and heterogeneous pathology that may ultimately lead to neurodegeneration and brain atrophy. Brain volume loss in MS is known to occur early in the disease course and to be clinically relevant, as it has been related to disability progression. Nowadays, brain volume loss is relatively easy to measure with different automated, reproducible and accurate software tools. Therefore, most of (if not all) the newest clinical trials have incorporated brain volume outcomes as a measure of treatment effect. With this review, we aimed to update and summarize all existing data regarding brain volume and RRMS treatment in clinical trials as well as in open-label observational studies of drugs with positive results in its primary outcome in at least one phase III trial as of March 2014.

Neurofilament light chain level is a weak risk factor for the development of MS

Objective: To determine the prognostic value of selected biomarkers in clinically isolated syndromes (CIS) for conversion to multiple sclerosis (MS) and disability accrual. Methods: Data were acquired from 2 CIS cohorts. The screening phase evaluated patients developing clinically definite MS (CIS-CDMS) and patients who remained as CIS during a 2-year minimum follow-up (CIS-CIS). We determined levels of neurofascin, semaphorin 3A, fetuin A, glial fibrillary acidic protein, and neurofilament light (NfL) and heavy chains in CSF (estimated mean [95% confidence interval; CI]). We evaluated associations between biomarker levels, conversion, disability, and magnetic resonance parameters. In the replication phase, we determined NfL levels (n = 155) using a 900 ng/L cutoff. Primary endpoints in uni- and multivariate analyses were CDMS and 2010 McDonald MS. Results: The only biomarker showing significant differences in the screening was NfL (CIS-CDMS 1,553.1 [1,208.7–1,897.5] ng/L and CIS-CIS 499.0 [168.8–829.2] ng/L, p < 0.0001). The strongest associations were with brain parenchymal fraction change (rs = −0.892) and percentage brain volume change (rs = −0.842) at 5 years. NfL did not correlate with disability. In the replication phase, more NfL-positive patients, according to the cutoff, evolved to MS. Every 100-ng/L increase in NfL predicted CDMS (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.009, 95% CI 1.005–1.014) and McDonald MS (HR = 1.009, 95% CI 1.005–1.013), remaining significant for CDMS in the multivariate analysis (adjusted HR = 1.005, 95% CI 1.000–1.011). This risk was lower than the presence of oligoclonal bands or T2 lesions. Conclusions: NfL is a weak independent risk factor for MS. Its role as an axonal damage biomarker may be more relevant as suggested by its association with medium-term brain volume changes.

Contribution of the symptomatic lesion in establishing MS diagnosis and prognosis

Objective: To study the contribution of the symptomatic lesion in establishing multiple sclerosis (MS) diagnosis and prognosis. Methods: We performed an observational study based on a prospective clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) cohort of 1,107 patients recruited for clinical and brain MRI follow-up from 1995 to 2014. Eligible patients (n = 954) were divided into 4 groups according to baseline MRI: patients with a normal MRI (n = 290); patients with a single asymptomatic lesion (n = 18); patients with a single cord/brainstem symptomatic lesion (n = 35); and patients with more than 1 lesion (n = 611). For each group, we studied the risk of second attack, with 2005 McDonald MS and Expanded Disability Status Scale 3.0, using univariable and multivariable regression models adjusted by age, sex, oligoclonal bands, and disease-modifying treatments. We tested the diagnostic performance of a modified dissemination in space (DIS) criterion that includes symptomatic lesions in the total count and compared it to the DIS criteria (at least 1 asymptomatic lesion in at least 2 of the 4 MS characteristic MS locations) for all patients and for the subgroup of patients with brainstem or spinal cord topography. Results: Patients with a cord/brainstem single symptomatic lesion have a higher risk of second attack and disability accumulation than patients with 0 lesions but have a similar risk compared to patients with 1 asymptomatic lesion. Diagnostic properties are reasonably maintained when the symptomatic lesion qualifies for DIS. Conclusions: Despite the recommendations of the 2010 McDonald criteria, symptomatic lesions should be taken into account when considering the diagnosis and prognosis of patients with CIS.

Predictive value of early brain atrophy on response in patients treated with interferon β

Objective: To investigate the association between brain volume loss during the first year of interferon treatment and clinical outcome at 4 years. Methods: Patients with multiple sclerosis initiating interferon β were clinically evaluated every 6 months for the presence of relapses and assessment of global disability using the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). MRI scans were performed at baseline and after 12 months, and the percentage of brain volume change (PBVC), brain parenchymal volume change (BPVc%), gray matter volume change (GMVc%), and white matter volume change (WMVc%) were estimated. Patients were divided based on the cutoff values for predicting confirmed EDSS worsening obtained by receiver operating characteristic analysis for all atrophy measurements. Survival curves and Cox proportional hazards regression to predict disability worsening at last observation were applied, adjusting for demographic, clinical, and radiologic variables. Results: Larger PBVC and WMVc% decreases were observed in patients with disability worsening at 4 years of follow-up, whereas no differences were found in BPVc% or GMVc%. Cutoff points were obtained for PBVC (−0.86%; sensitivity 65.5%, specificity 71.4%) and WMVc% (−2.49%; sensitivity 85.3%, specificity 43.8%). Patients with decreases of PBVC and WMVc% below cutoff values were more prone to develop disability worsening (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] 3.875, p = 0.005; HR 4.246, p = 0.004, respectively). PBVC (HR 4.751, p = 0.008) and the interaction of new T2 lesions with WMVc% (HR 1.086, p = 0.005) were found to be independent predictors of disability worsening in the multivariate analysis. Conclusions: At the patient level, whole-brain and white matter volume changes in the first year of interferon β therapy are predictive of subsequent clinical evolution under treatment.