Angela Wilkinson

Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called ‘environmental scenarios’, is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge (‘the epistemologies’) which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: ‘problem-focused’ and ‘actor-centric’. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call ‘RIMA’—‘reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based’. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

Food for thought: food systems, livestock futures and animal health

Abstract Global food security, livestock production and animal health are inextricably bound. However, our focus on the future tends to disaggregate food and health into largely separate domains. Indeed, much foresight work is either food systems or health-based with little overlap in terms of predictions or narratives. Work on animal health is no exception. Part of the problem is the fundamental misunderstanding of the role, nature and impact of the modern futures tool kit. Here, I outline three key issues in futures research ranging from methodological confusion over the application of scenarios to the failure to effectively integrate multiple methodologies to the gap between the need for more evidence and power and control over futures processes. At its core, however, a better understanding of the narrative and worldview framing much of the futures work in animal health is required to enhance the value and impact of such exercises.