Angélica Massuquetti

Os subsídios à agricultura no comércio internacional: as políticas da União Europeia e dos Estados Unidos da América

This study examines the practice of agricultural subsidies in international trade, aiming at scaling its practice as a strategic economic tool primarily for the agricultural sector, especially to the United States and the European Union. A complete ban on subsidies is not desirable because its practice, in essence, is a path to improve the welfare of the nation. However, the way the agricultural subsidies have been employed, constitute protectionist interventions that distort international trade. The United States and the European Union are the major users of this instrument in international trade, a factor that has raised concerns about their own efficiency as a strategic trade policy for international trade.

DEMANDA E OFERTA ENERGÉTICA: UMA PERSPECTIVA MUNDIAL E NACIONAL PARA O ETANOL

This paper estimates the bilateral trade flows between the BRICs – Brazil, Russia, India and China – in the next decades. This study employs a gravity model based on a sample of 57 countries. Trade flows and a variety of other data were collected from 2000 to 2007 to enable the estimation of gravity equations that explain the international trade in this period. By using two different estimation methods – OLS and Tobit – a wide set of parameters was generated, with the aim to choose the most adequate equations for the estimations wanted. Finally, these two best parameter sets were arranged and applied on gravity equations, combined with the Goldman Sachs predictions, in order to obtain future estimations of bilateral trade flows between them in three time-scenarios: short term (2010), midterm (2020) and long term (2030). The results show that the ‘intra-BRICs’ trade flows will grow even more than the GDP of these countries, meaning an increase in the interdependence among these economies, contributing to maintain their economic growth.

AS OPORTUNIDADES COMERCIAIS DO AGRONEGÓCIO DA REGIÃO SUL DO BRASIL

O objetivo do artigo e analisar as oportunidades comerciais e os resultados das exportacoes do agronegocio da Regiao Sul do Brasil no periodo 2000 a 2013, utilizando o Indice de Intensidade do Comercio Relativo (IICR), o Indice de Vantagem Comparativa Revelada (IVCR), o Indice de Complementaridade de Comercio (ICC) e o Dinamismo Importador (DI). Os resultados revelam que os principais produtos exportados pela Regiao Sul sao competitivos internacionalmente e que, de um modo geral, a dinâmica de exportacao brasileira foi semelhante a importacao dos principais paises do mundo, compradores e parceiros comerciais brasileiros, explicando a presenca dos produtos nas respectivas pautas exportadoras. Adicionalmente, a participacao cada vez maior da soja nas exportacoes desses estados e do Brasil e fruto do crescimento das importacoes chinesas.

Os contenciosos comerciais e os principais casos de retaliação do Brasil à prática de subsídios agrícolas na Organização Mundial de Comércio

This article analyzes the adoption of retaliatory measures, based on countervailing measures, on the practice of subsidies in international agricultural trade, by means of a survey on the evolution of trade differences submitted to the World Trade Organization (WTO). It was possible to identify the United States and the European Union as the members who most suffer from retaliation in the WTO, because of the impacts of their policies on subsidies on the agricultural sector. However, there was a drop in trade disputes submitted to WTO, especially with regard to countervailing measures related to the agricultural sector.

A COMPETITIVIDADE E O GRAU DE CONCENTRAÇÃO DAS EXPORTAÇÕES DO COMPLEXO SOJA DO BRASIL, DA ARGENTINA E DOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DA AMÉRICA NO PERÍODO 1995/2010

This paper analyzes the export competitiveness of soybean in Brazil, Argentina and the United States and the degree of concentration in the main export markets of these countries in the period 1995/2010, using both the index of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Concentration ratio (CR). The results reveal, based on the CR3 , that Argentina and Brazil show an increase in the concentration ratio of even crushed soybeans and crude soybean oil, while the US in even crushed soybeans and fractionated soybean oil even. The RCA index shows advantages for all products/countries in both years, except the soy flour to Brazil and Argentina that had values below one. For the US the indexes were lower when compared to the other countries, although it remained as the main exporter of soy flour, fractionated soybean oil even and even crushed soybeans.

the impact of the determinants for the supply of sugar and alcohol in Brazil within the period of 1995 to 2009

This study has the objective to measure the impact of the determinants for the supply of sugar and alcohol in Brazil, with the intention to capture the duration of the osclillations of prices and production influences to the Brazilian market. The econometric model proposed for the following study consists of a vector auto-regressive model with an error correction mechanism based on quarterly temporal series within the period of 1995 to 2009. Afterwards, it was analyzed through Granger causality tests and the impulse response function (IRF) the precedence among the variables comprehended in the models, as well as the impulse that a variable applies over the others. At last based on the tests presented it has got to the conclusion that the model B with four lags, showed the most coherent and conclusive results concerning the theoretical support and the dynamics of the sector. Among the main results it is evident the positive relationship of sugar and ethanol concerning the determination of its offers, at the sense that the increase one product generates, at the same point, the expansion of the other. In addition the behaviors of the variables of prices, in part presented results in agreement to the expected signals. The sugar exports and exchange rate impact positively in the income received by the producer and infer positively for the expansion of the Brazilian sugar offer.

BUSINESS CYCLES IN LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMY: 1950-2007

This article looks for the existence of common cycles in Latin America between 1950 and 2007. In this study, we used the technique of changing the Markovian regime, which in addition to univariate and multivariate formulations were tested bivariate arrangements. The main results indicate that it is possible to characterize the periods of growth and recessions in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico, especially in the two oil shocks in the beginning and the end of the 1970s; the crisis of balance of payments; and the problems of relative prices. Despite the existence of causality, bivariate models were tested between Argentina and Brazil, Chile and Mexico. The results suggest that smoothing of cycles, and the existence of movements of adjustment of economies to exogenous shocks that disrupted its dynamics of growth. It was also possible to identify differences in the speed of cyclical adjustment in each economy.

THE POLICY OF STATE INVESTMENT IN HYDROGEN GENERATION IN BRAZIL SINCE 2002

The aim of this study was to analyze the policy of state investment in hydrogen generation in Brazil since 2002. From the research methodology literature, it was found that Brazilian investments in hydrogen are directed to two segments: power generation in fuel cells to supply vehicles and stationary units and generate hydrogen with the goal of producing a fuel with a lower content of sulfur. Finally, concern for the environment has raised the demand for more fuel efficient and less polluting. In this sense, the Brazilian state investments in hydrogen are seeking to reduce the environmental impacts caused by fossil fuels.

Um estudo das agências bancárias no COREDE Vale do Rio dos Sinos a partir da Teoria da Localização: 1995-2005

The purpose of this paper is to identify the explanatory variables of the localization of bank agencies in the Regional Council of Economic Development (COREDE) of the “Vale do Rio dos Sinos” (CONSINOS), in the period of 1995-2005. By analyzing the case of Rio Grande do Sul, one can observe that from 1,158 bank agencies installed in 1995, this number went to 1,322 in 2005, what represents a growth of 14%. By researching these same data for the CONSINOS, which owns 8.92% of the total agencies localized in the state, one gets the same growth rate of 14% of growth in this same period. That’s to say, there has been a, enlargement from 103 to 118 agencies distributed in the cities of the region, especially in Canoas, Novo Hamburgo and Sao Leopoldo, which in 2005 had 26, 29 e 19 commercial bank agencies, respectively, including public and private institutions.

A evolução recente do desenvolvimento em Porto Alegre: 1991-2007

The objective of this article is to analyze the socialeconomic development in Porto Alegre in the period of 1991-2007. The applied methodology was the bibliographic revision and the analysis of the indexes IDESE and IMP. Among the main results there is the finding of the difference in the development among the areas of Porto Alegre; the finding that the health and sanitation indexes have presented figures below to the other analyzed indexes; and that the political participation of the inhabitants of the municipality have presented low results.