André Filipe Zago de Azevedo

Impactos comerciais da Área de Livre Comércio das Américas: uma aplicação do modelo gravitacional

Este trabalho analisa os efeitos da criacao da Alca sobre o fluxo de comercio de um grupo de paises que farao parte desse bloco, a partir da utilizacao de um modelo gravitacional. Inicialmente sao estimados os efeitos sobre o comercio de tres importantes blocos ja em vigor na regiao (Comunidade Andina, Mercosul e Nafta) a partir do modelo gravitacional. Esse modelo permite identificar os efeitos sobre o comercio que podem ser atribuidos exclusivamente a formacao dos blocos, separando-os dos demais fatores que influenciam o padrao de comercio. Os resultados obtidos a partir da equacao gravitacional servem de base para a criacao de cenarios prospectivos da Alca. No cenario mais otimista, o comercio do Brasil com os principais parceiros da Alca cresceria significativamente, assim como os fluxos comerciais entre os demais paises analisados.

Building resilience to international financial crises: lessons from Brazil

Purpose – This paper sets out to argue that, due to a stable set of economic policies over the past decade, today Brazil is much more resilient to international financial crises than in the 1990s.Design/methodology/approach – The paper presents preliminary macroeconomic data in a country case study.Findings – The paper concludes that the initial impact of the current international financial crisis on Brazil has been much less severe than similar crisis episodes in the past.Research limitations/implications – Given that the crisis is still unfolding, the paper presents only preliminary data regarding its impact on emerging markets.Practical implications – The paper suggests that emerging markets should adopt flexible exchange rate regimes and stable macroeconomic policies as a means to reduce their exposure to international shocks.Originality/value – The paper makes an initial diagnosis regarding the impact of the international financial crisis on emerging markets that have adopted sensible economic polici...

O efeito fronteira das regiões brasileiras: uma aplicação do modelo gravitacional

This paper analyzes the border effect for Brazilian goods market and its regions in 1999. This effect was quantified empirically by using cross-sectional data in a gravitational model for twenty-six Brazilian states plus the Federal District and forty other countries. Despite Brazils involvement in commercial opening in the 90s, as well as important regional trade agreements such as Mercosul, we noticed that Brazil and some of its regions have high cross-border costs. The finding results of this equation suggest a trade 33 times higher between Brazilian states than the international trade of these states. Regarding each Brazilian region, the border effect found for intra-national trade among Northeast and North regions is significantly higher than the border effect for Southeast and Southern regions.

Política industrial e desenvolvimento econômico: a reatualização de um debate histórico

Industrial policy and economic development: a review of the contemporary debate. This paper discusses the importance of the industrial policy for the Brazilian economic development. It presents the theoretical foundations and the main international experiences about this theme. Besides it examines the main industrial policies adopted in Brazil, especially in recent years. Based on this discussion, it is possible to note that despite the criticisms against this policy, they were widely used by many developed countries in the past and also played an important role, contributing to increase the industrial growth in Brazil. However, the recent Brazilian industrial policies were not so efficient, especially when compared with those adopted during most of the 20th century.

Os subsídios à agricultura no comércio internacional: as políticas da União Europeia e dos Estados Unidos da América

This study examines the practice of agricultural subsidies in international trade, aiming at scaling its practice as a strategic economic tool primarily for the agricultural sector, especially to the United States and the European Union. A complete ban on subsidies is not desirable because its practice, in essence, is a path to improve the welfare of the nation. However, the way the agricultural subsidies have been employed, constitute protectionist interventions that distort international trade. The United States and the European Union are the major users of this instrument in international trade, a factor that has raised concerns about their own efficiency as a strategic trade policy for international trade.

Os efeitos do novo regionalismo sobre o comércio

From 1990 there was a proliferation of Preferential Trade Agreements notified to the World Trade Organization and this study aims to identify whether this new regionalism led to trade creation or trade diversion to their participants, using a gravity model based on panel data over the period 1990-2009. The results suggest the existence of trade creation and export diversion due to the formation of Mercosur. With regards to NAFTA, besides being the only bloc that showed an anticipatory effect on their trade flows within the region, there are signs that the growth of trade occurred due to trade creation. Nevertheless, there are indications that the Asean and PAFTA caused trade diversion. Finally, the way that trade flows evolved within each bloc (ex ante and ex post) was quite different, not only in terms of trade volume but also on how quickly they responded to their formation, with its effects arising immediately in some cases and in others taking a few years.

ESTIMATES THE BILATERAL TRADE FLOWS BETWEEN THE BRICS TO ENABLE THE ESTIMATION OF GRAVITY EQUATIONS

This paper estimates the bilateral trade flows between the BRICs – Brazil, Russia, India and China – in the next decades. This study employs a gravity model based on a sample of 57 countries. Trade flows and a variety of other data were collected from 2000 to 2007 to enable the estimation of gravity equations that explain the international trade in this period. By using two different estimation methods – OLS and Tobit – a wide set of parameters was generated, with the aim to choose the most adequate equations for the estimations wanted. Finally, these two best parameter sets were arranged and applied on gravity equations, combined with the Goldman Sachs predictions, in order to obtain future estimations of bilateral trade flows between them in three time-scenarios: short term (2010), midterm (2020) and long term (2030). The results show that the ‘intra-BRICs’ trade flows will grow even more than the GDP of these countries, meaning an increase in the interdependence among these economies, contributing to maintain their economic growth.

OS EFEITOS DA ALIANÇA DO PACÍFICO SOBRE O COMÉRCIO E O BEM-ESTAR DA REGIÃO E DO MERCOSUL

O artigo examina os efeitos da liberalizacao comercial entre os paises membros da Alianca do Pacifico (AP), por meio do modelo de equilibrio geral computavel Global trade analysis project (Gtap), sobre o comercio e o bem-estar. Os resultados indicam que a magnitude dos efeitos seria pequena para os membros do acordo, em termos de comercio, mas principalmente em termos de bem-estar. O perfil mais liberal de seus membros, bem como a existencia de acordos preferenciais de comercio previos entre eles, reduziu o escopo dos ganhos. Os paises da AP, a excecao da Colombia, apresentam ganhos de bem-estar, devido a melhoria de seus termos de troca, em detrimento dos paises de fora do bloco. Os mais prejudicados com a formacao do bloco sao os paises do Nafta e do Mercosul, pois as preferencias concedidas pelos parceiros da AP acabaram reduzindo o acesso desses dois importantes parceiros comerciais ao mercado do bloco.

A OMC Continua Promovendo o Comércio de Forma Desigual: Novas Evidências a Partir dos Anos 1990

O artigo fornece evidencias que a OMC continuou tendo um impacto profundo sobre o comercio de seus paises membros, no periodo 1990-2009, seguindo a contribuicao original de Subramanian e Wei (2007). Para isto, utilizou-se o modelo gravitacional, atraves de efeitos fixos e com o estimador da PMVP, comparando a magnitude da abertura multilateral, entre paises desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados sugerem que os paises em desenvolvimento, no periodo examinado, foram os que mais se beneficiaram do aumento do comercio mundial promovido pela OMC, ao contrario do que havia ocorrido, entre 1950 e 2000, conforme Subramanian e Wei (2007).

Os contenciosos comerciais e os principais casos de retaliação do Brasil à prática de subsídios agrícolas na Organização Mundial de Comércio

This article analyzes the adoption of retaliatory measures, based on countervailing measures, on the practice of subsidies in international agricultural trade, by means of a survey on the evolution of trade differences submitted to the World Trade Organization (WTO). It was possible to identify the United States and the European Union as the members who most suffer from retaliation in the WTO, because of the impacts of their policies on subsidies on the agricultural sector. However, there was a drop in trade disputes submitted to WTO, especially with regard to countervailing measures related to the agricultural sector.