Anita Håkansson

Applying anticipatory computing in system dynamics

A traditional System Dynamics Model is compared with an Anticipatory Soft Computing Approach. A system for control and management of water resources and hydro electrical power stations is used as a real world test case. The System Dynamics Model is easily developed and run with help of commercial, special purpose modeling and simulation software. The resulting model increases understanding and generates new insights. Its lack of anticipatory power, however, makes the control task difficult. With the anticipatory approach, on the other hand, the control becomes more effective even if the modeling and model complexity increases rapidly than applied on a reasonable big and realistic real world case. Strong Anticipation, as compared to the more traditional Weak Anticipation, has proved itself to have many interesting and powerful properties.

Dynamic information in GIS systems

Time can be characterized as the fourth dimension of the physical space-time continuum. Time is either a particular instant at which a structure or a process exists or occurs, or a period over which a structure endures or a process continues. From the human point of view, a concrete system can move in any direction on the spatial dimension, but only forward on the temporal dimension. GIS systems generally deal with static information. Static objects can be defined as objects that do not change in a short time period. In many situations, the information in GIS applications does change dynamically. Environmental problems, for example, have a significant dynamic component, which means that the conditions of the real system, at the time the decision is made, are the results of all the past history of the system and influence its subsequent behavior. Dynamicallity in a process may be possible to measure. The measure should include components such as size of change, frequencies of change, and time interval. The dynamicallity of a system should, in addition, include the need of change in representation (for example, how often must the screen be updated) and how time-critical decisions are. Time can be represented by a series of snapshots, and the shorter time periods between the snapshots, the more it imitates a continuous course of events. The time lapse is represented by a minimum of two pictures, up to complete animation. Real time and presentation time are not necessarily the same, as it is desirable to shorten very long time lapses (for example geological changes), and lengthen (prolong) rapid time lapses (such as explosions). We define presentation time as a relation between observation interval (time interval between observations) and picture rate (the rate of changing pictures on the screen). In this paper, some functions for handling dynamic information in GIS systems are presented.

Creative Anticipatory Spatial Modelling for Intra Regional Simulation

Current models and tools for support in spatial intra regional design, planning, and management may generally be judged as being too descriptive and too reactive. Hence, due to their rigidity and focusing on system history, they have severe shortcomings in guiding decision‐makers in current decision situations, which are characterized by increasingly high degrees of uncertainty, unperceptibility, and change. Therefore, in order to improve the conditions for decision‐makers, a conceptual design of a new tool, the MAP‐tool, for support in such work is presented. MAP is designed around the conceptual integration of anticipatory modelling and computing, multi modal system modelling, soft computing, and spatial modelling and computing.

Multi modal anticipation in fuzzy space

We are all stakeholders in the geographical space, which makes up our common living and activity space. This means that a careful, creative, and anticipatory planning, design, and management of that space will be of paramount importance for our sustained life on earth. Here it is shown that the quality of such planning could be significantly increased with help of a computer based modelling and simulation tool. Further, the design and implementation of such a tool ought to be guided by the conceptual integration of some core concepts like anticipation and retardation, multi modal system modelling, fuzzy space modelling, and multi actor interaction.

Soft spatial decision support

Decisions in planning and design of spatial systems express an extra high complexity, dimensionality, and uncertainty. Hence, such decisions are best supported by fuzzy visualisation of the involved variables and their interdependencies. With this approach a fuzzy man-machine system is proposed for spatial negotiations.

Methodological Considerations for Development of Research Support Systems

The article introduces the development of research support systems (RSS) as a special form of information systems (IS) development. Building on experiences from a concrete case several crucial differences between RSS development and development of conventional business support systems (BSS) are identified. So, development for RSS means less of mission and more of continues collaboration, less of producing and more of reciprocal learning and social change. It also involves an expanded universe of discourse that requires support more from an IS researcher and less of a conventional IS-developer. Further, there are issues of ethics and funding that makes RSS development extra challenging. All this represents a shift in focus away from How to do things, toward, What things to do. The article is closed with some tentative guidelines for RSS development. Those include preparing, learning, working arena, anticipatory acting, prototyping and stepwise improvement and scrutiny.

NLS: A Reflection Support System for Increased Inter-Regional Security

Cooperation across national borders is of paramount importance for the security in border close regions. Timely and adequate training, reflection, and preparation are core tools for facilitating and stimulating such interregional cooperation. Hence, NetAgora, a service oriented web portal for security cooperation, was designed. In NetAgora there is first a service package with accident-and emergency scenarios. Here multi-actors can train their cooperation and decision making skills. The R-statistics open source package is applied for recording and analyzing data from those training occasions. In subsequent debriefing sessions this is used for post-learning. Further, from anticipatory modeling and simulation it is found that rescue operations are delayed and misguided due to shortcomings in the communication between security command and communication centers. Hence, the NetAgora Learning System is designed and prototyped in order to overcome that problem. It will facilitate and stimulate reflection in action and double loop learning and aims at improving communication patterns by anticipatory pre-learning.

A decision support procedure in physical planning based on fuzzy logic modelling

The purpose of this paper is to enhance the possibility of making a good decision in complex decision situations concerning localisation of the most suitable physical position for an activity or a building. This will be accomplished by integration of the three procedures, CFD-Tool (Continuous Fuzzy Decision Management Tool), the MAD-Tool (Multi-Actor Decision Management Tool) and the CSL-Tool (Cross System Level Decision Tool), where all three methods using a fuzzy approach. The result is the FAS procedure, a procedure that handles the problems mentioned above with a fuzzy approach. The FAS-procedure is also the starting point of a computer based decision support for physical planning.