Stig C. Holmberg

Designing and prototyping towards anticipatory applications

Decision makers and Managers of Complex Organizations would benefit from an anticipatory tool capable of supporting them in their task to develop and maintain sustainable or viable organisations. The Anticipatory Modelling and Computing Decision Support Prototype (ADP) is designed and tested to meet that demand. ADP is geared toward fuzzy or soft decision support and is based on an continuously adaptive and learning system model, which is developed and maintained by systemic modeling. In ADP Exploratory, Prescriptive and Preventive anticipation are identified and new system states are computed by Interval based Weighted Hyperincursion (IWH).

Applying anticipatory computing in system dynamics

A traditional System Dynamics Model is compared with an Anticipatory Soft Computing Approach. A system for control and management of water resources and hydro electrical power stations is used as a real world test case. The System Dynamics Model is easily developed and run with help of commercial, special purpose modeling and simulation software. The resulting model increases understanding and generates new insights. Its lack of anticipatory power, however, makes the control task difficult. With the anticipatory approach, on the other hand, the control becomes more effective even if the modeling and model complexity increases rapidly than applied on a reasonable big and realistic real world case. Strong Anticipation, as compared to the more traditional Weak Anticipation, has proved itself to have many interesting and powerful properties.

Simulated Decision Learning in a Multiactor Setting

Simulated Decision Learning in a Multiactor Setting The idea of decision analysis-and subsequent learning from the outcomes-is old within Operational Research. Here this approach to continuous improvement of decision outcomes is put one step further within the area of crisis and disaster management. This is done by introducing multiactors making simultaneous decisions with just partial information about each other. Further, decision outcomes are achieved from a simulation model rather than from the real object system.

Anticipatory computing with a spatio temporal fuzzy model

A cellular automata computer model (STF) for simulation and anticipation of geographical or physical space is constructed. STF has a normalised and continuous, i.e. fuzzy, system variable while both the time and space dimensions take on discrete values. Global rules are employed in STF, i.e. there is a total interdependence among the cells of the automata. Outcomes of the model can be interpreted more as possible future states than exact predictions. Preliminary results seem to be well in line with main characteristics of real geographical spaces.

Creative Anticipatory Spatial Modelling for Intra Regional Simulation

Current models and tools for support in spatial intra regional design, planning, and management may generally be judged as being too descriptive and too reactive. Hence, due to their rigidity and focusing on system history, they have severe shortcomings in guiding decision‐makers in current decision situations, which are characterized by increasingly high degrees of uncertainty, unperceptibility, and change. Therefore, in order to improve the conditions for decision‐makers, a conceptual design of a new tool, the MAP‐tool, for support in such work is presented. MAP is designed around the conceptual integration of anticipatory modelling and computing, multi modal system modelling, soft computing, and spatial modelling and computing.

OR 2000: Challenges and Prescriptions for the New Millennium

Both Operational Research (OR) specifically, and other Applied System Movements in general have a common concern in dealing with complex and tricky real world situations. Hence, it may be seen as a natural step that The Swedish Operational Research Association (SORA) recently became formally associated with the International Society for Systems Science (ISSS). However, the links between the two societies are far from new. Many individual SORA members are also long-lasting members of ISSS. Further, two of SORA’s leading scholars, Professor Kjell Samuelson in the seventies and Professor Donald de Raadt in the nineties, have also served as former presidents of ISSS. Hence, as current president of SORA, I hope that the newly committed association will be beneficial for both our parties and that, together, we will be able to pursue a common endeavour toward a healthier state of world affairs even more effectively.

Multi modal anticipation in fuzzy space

We are all stakeholders in the geographical space, which makes up our common living and activity space. This means that a careful, creative, and anticipatory planning, design, and management of that space will be of paramount importance for our sustained life on earth. Here it is shown that the quality of such planning could be significantly increased with help of a computer based modelling and simulation tool. Further, the design and implementation of such a tool ought to be guided by the conceptual integration of some core concepts like anticipation and retardation, multi modal system modelling, fuzzy space modelling, and multi actor interaction.

Living systems applications in Sweden

The paper discusses Swedish experiences of applying living systems theory within geoInformatics, urban management, rescue systems, software engineering, and modeling. In assessing these experiences it is found that a sound base has been established but that further development and research are needed. Finally, three current projects for making the theory more operational are briefly presented.

Soft spatial decision support

Decisions in planning and design of spatial systems express an extra high complexity, dimensionality, and uncertainty. Hence, such decisions are best supported by fuzzy visualisation of the involved variables and their interdependencies. With this approach a fuzzy man-machine system is proposed for spatial negotiations.

Methodological Considerations for Development of Research Support Systems

The article introduces the development of research support systems (RSS) as a special form of information systems (IS) development. Building on experiences from a concrete case several crucial differences between RSS development and development of conventional business support systems (BSS) are identified. So, development for RSS means less of mission and more of continues collaboration, less of producing and more of reciprocal learning and social change. It also involves an expanded universe of discourse that requires support more from an IS researcher and less of a conventional IS-developer. Further, there are issues of ethics and funding that makes RSS development extra challenging. All this represents a shift in focus away from How to do things, toward, What things to do. The article is closed with some tentative guidelines for RSS development. Those include preparing, learning, working arena, anticipatory acting, prototyping and stepwise improvement and scrutiny.