Anita K. M. Zaidi

Burden and aetiology of diarrhoeal disease in infants and young children in developing countries (the Global Enteric Multicenter Study, GEMS): a prospective, case-control study

BACKGROUND Diarrhoeal diseases cause illness and death among children younger than 5 years in low-income countries. We designed the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) to identify the aetiology and population-based burden of paediatric diarrhoeal disease in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. METHODS The GEMS is a 3-year, prospective, age-stratified, matched case-control study of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea in children aged 0-59 months residing in censused populations at four sites in Africa and three in Asia. We recruited children with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea seeking care at health centres along with one to three randomly selected matched community control children without diarrhoea. From patients with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea and controls, we obtained clinical and epidemiological data, anthropometric measurements, and a faecal sample to identify enteropathogens at enrolment; one follow-up home visit was made about 60 days later to ascertain vital status, clinical outcome, and interval growth. FINDINGS We enrolled 9439 children with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea and 13,129 control children without diarrhoea. By analysing adjusted population attributable fractions, most attributable cases of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea were due to four pathogens: rotavirus, Cryptosporidium, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli producing heat-stable toxin (ST-ETEC; with or without co-expression of heat-labile enterotoxin), and Shigella. Other pathogens were important in selected sites (eg, Aeromonas, Vibrio cholerae O1, Campylobacter jejuni). Odds of dying during follow-up were 8·5-fold higher in patients with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea than in controls (odd ratio 8·5, 95% CI 5·8-12·5, p<0·0001); most deaths (167 [87·9%]) occurred during the first 2 years of life. Pathogens associated with increased risk of case death were ST-ETEC (hazard ratio [HR] 1·9; 0·99-3·5) and typical enteropathogenic E coli (HR 2·6; 1·6-4·1) in infants aged 0-11 months, and Cryptosporidium (HR 2·3; 1·3-4·3) in toddlers aged 12-23 months. INTERPRETATION Interventions targeting five pathogens (rotavirus, Shigella, ST-ETEC, Cryptosporidium, typical enteropathogenic E coli) can substantially reduce the burden of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea. New methods and accelerated implementation of existing interventions (rotavirus vaccine and zinc) are needed to prevent disease and improve outcomes. FUNDING The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Antibiotic resistance—the need for global solutions

The causes of antibiotic resistance are complex and include human behaviour at many levels of society; the consequences affect everybody in the world. Similarities with climate change are evident. Many efforts have been made to describe the many different facets of antibiotic resistance and the interventions needed to meet the challenge. However, coordinated action is largely absent, especially at the political level, both nationally and internationally. Antibiotics paved the way for unprecedented medical and societal developments, and are today indispensible in all health systems. Achievements in modern medicine, such as major surgery, organ transplantation, treatment of preterm babies, and cancer chemotherapy, which we today take for granted, would not be possible without access to effective treatment for bacterial infections. Within just a few years, we might be faced with dire setbacks, medically, socially, and economically, unless real and unprecedented global coordinated actions are immediately taken. Here, we describe the global situation of antibiotic resistance, its major causes and consequences, and identify key areas in which action is urgently needed.

Group B streptococcal disease in infants aged younger than 3 months: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Despite widespread use of intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis, group B streptococcus remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in infants in Europe, the Americas, and Australia. However, estimates of disease burden in many countries outside of these regions is not available. We aimed to examine the current global burden of invasive disease and the serotype distribution of group B streptococcus isolates. METHODS We searched Medline, Embase, and Wholis databases for studies on invasive early-onset (day 0-6) and late-onset (day 7-89) group B streptococcal disease. Eligible studies were those that described incidence, deaths, or serotypes. We also reviewed reference lists and contacted experts to seek unpublished data and data missed by our search. Random effects meta-analysis was used to pool data. FINDINGS 74 studies met the inclusion criteria; 56 studies reported incidence, 29 case fatality, and 19 serotype distribution. An additional search for studies that reported serotype distribution from Jan 1, 1980, yielded a total of 38 articles. Only five low-income countries were represented in the review and contributed 5% weight to the meta-analysis. 47 (69%) studies reported use of any intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis. Substantial heterogeneity existed between studies. Mean incidence of group B streptococcus in infants aged 0-89 days was 0·53 per 1000 livebirths (95% CI 0·44-0·62) and the mean case fatality ratio was 9·6% (95% CI 7·5-11·8). Incidence of early-onset group B streptococcus (0·43 per 1000 livebirths [95% CI 0·37-0·49]) and case fatality (12·1%, [6·2-18·3]) were two-times higher than late-onset disease. Serotype III (48·9%) was the most frequently identified serotype in all regions with available data followed by serotypes Ia (22·9%), Ib (7·0%), II (6·2%), and V (9·1%). Studies that reported use of any intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis were associated with lower incidence of early-onset group B streptococcus (0·23 per 1000 livebirths [95% CI 0·13-0·59]) than studies in which patients did not use prophylaxis (0·75 per 1000 livebirths [0·58-0·89]). INTERPRETATION More high-quality studies are needed to accurately estimate the global burden of group B streptococcus, especially in low-income countries. A conjugate vaccine incorporating five serotypes (Ia, Ib, II, III, V) could prevent most global group B streptococcal disease. FUNDING Child Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG), WHO.

Pathogen-specific burdens of community diarrhoea in developing countries: a multisite birth cohort study (MAL-ED)

BACKGROUND Most studies of the causes of diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries have looked at severe disease in people presenting for care, and there are few estimates of pathogen-specific diarrhoea burdens in the community. METHODS We undertook a birth cohort study with not only intensive community surveillance for diarrhoea but also routine collection of non-diarrhoeal stools from eight sites in South America, Africa, and Asia. We enrolled children within 17 days of birth, and diarrhoeal episodes (defined as maternal report of three or more loose stools in 24 h, or one loose stool with visible blood) were identified through twice-weekly home visits by fieldworkers over a follow-up period of 24 months. Non-diarrhoeal stool specimens were also collected for surveillance for months 1-12, 15, 18, 21, and 24. Stools were analysed for a broad range of enteropathogens using culture, enzyme immunoassay, and PCR. We used the adjusted attributable fraction (AF) to estimate pathogen-specific burdens of diarrhoea. FINDINGS Between November 26, 2009, and February 25, 2014, we tested 7318 diarrhoeal and 24 310 non-diarrhoeal stools collected from 2145 children aged 0-24 months. Pathogen detection was common in non-diarrhoeal stools but was higher with diarrhoea. Norovirus GII (AF 5·2%, 95% CI 3·0-7·1), rotavirus (4·8%, 4·5-5·0), Campylobacter spp (3·5%, 0·4-6·3), astrovirus (2·7%, 2·2-3·1), and Cryptosporidium spp (2·0%, 1·3-2·6) exhibited the highest attributable burdens of diarrhoea in the first year of life. The major pathogens associated with diarrhoea in the second year of life were Campylobacter spp (7·9%, 3·1-12·1), norovirus GII (5·4%, 2·1-7·8), rotavirus (4·9%, 4·4-5·2), astrovirus (4·2%, 3·5-4·7), and Shigella spp (4·0%, 3·6-4·3). Rotavirus had the highest AF for sites without rotavirus vaccination and the fifth highest AF for sites with the vaccination. There was substantial variation in pathogens according to geography, diarrhoea severity, and season. Bloody diarrhoea was primarily associated with Campylobacter spp and Shigella spp, fever and vomiting with rotavirus, and vomiting with norovirus GII. INTERPRETATION There was substantial heterogeneity in pathogen-specific burdens of diarrhoea, with important determinants including age, geography, season, rotavirus vaccine usage, and symptoms. These findings suggest that although single-pathogen strategies have an important role in the reduction of the burden of severe diarrhoeal disease, the effect of such interventions on total diarrhoeal incidence at the community level might be limited.

Pathogens associated with sepsis in newborns and young infants in developing countries.

Introduction: Knowledge of pathogens causing infections in young infants (up to 90 days of life) is essential for devising community-based management strategies. Most etiological data from developing countries are hospital-based and may have little relevance to communities in which most babies are born at home. Methods: We searched the literature for studies from developing countries reporting etiology of community-acquired infections (sepsis, pneumonia, meningitis) published since 1980. Hospital-based studies reporting early onset sepsis, sepsis among babies admitted from, or born at home were included. Results: Of 63 studies, 13 focused on community-acquired infections, but limited data were available from home-born neonates. In the first week of life (3209 isolates), Klebsiella species (25%), Escherichia coli (15%), and Staphylococcus aureus (18%) were major pathogens. Group B streptococci (GBS) were relatively uncommon (7%), although regional differences existed. After the first week of life (835 isolates), S. aureus (14%), GBS (12%), Streptococcus pneumoniae (12%), and nontyphoidal Salmonella species (13%) were most frequent. S. pneumoniae (27%) was most common in the postneonatal period (among 141 isolates). Gram-negatives predominated (77%) among home-delivered babies (among 170 isolates). Conclusions: Limited information is available on etiology of serious bacterial infections in community settings. Hospital-based studies suggest that most infections in the first week of life are due to Gram-negative pathogens, and many may be environmentally rather than maternally-acquired, owing to unhygienic delivery practices. Such practices may also explain the predominance of Gram-negative infections among home-born infants, although data from home settings are limited. These findings have implications for developing prevention and management strategies in communities and hospitals.

Burden of Neonatal Infections in Developing Countries A Review of Evidence From Community-Based Studies

Introduction: Infections are a major contributor to newborn deaths in developing countries. Majority of these deaths occur at home without coming to medical attention. The Millennium Development Goal for child survival cannot be achieved without substantial reductions in infection-specific neonatal mortality. We describe the burden of neonatal infections in developing countries and discuss the need for community-based management approaches to improve survival from neonatal infections in these countries. Methods: We reviewed community-based studies published since 1990 from developing countries to estimate the rates of neonatal and young infant infections and infection-specific neonatal mortality. Results: Thirty-two studies reviewed suggest that infections may be responsible for 8% to 80% of all neonatal deaths and as many as 42% of deaths in the first week of life. Eleven reports provided data on incidence of infections in neonates and infants up to 60 days of life. Rates of neonatal sepsis were as high as 170/1000 live births (clinically diagnosed) and 5.5/1000 live births (blood culture-confirmed). Conclusions: Considerable heterogeneity exists among included studies, and more accurate data and standardized methodologies are required. However, data indicate that a significant proportion of neonatal deaths in developing countries are due to infections. Current recommendations of hospitalization and parenteral therapy for managing neonatal infections are inadequately followed in developing countries. Approaches for detecting and managing serious infections within the community, at home or first-level health facilities, may be more effective options in settings where delays and reluctance to seek care, health system inefficiencies, socioeconomic and cultural, as well as logistic constraints exist.

Effect of provision of daily zinc and iron with several micronutrients on growth and morbidity among young children in Pakistan: a cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND Powders containing iron and other micronutrients are recommended as a strategy to prevent nutritional anaemia and other micronutrient deficiencies in children. We assessed the effects of provision of two micronutrient powder formulations, with or without zinc, to children in Pakistan. METHODS We did a cluster randomised trial in urban and rural sites in Sindh, Pakistan. A baseline survey identified 256 clusters, which were randomly assigned (within urban and rural strata, by computer-generated random numbers) to one of three groups: non-supplemented control (group A), micronutrient powder without zinc (group B), or micronutrient powder with 10 mg zinc (group C). Children in the clusters aged 6 months were eligible for inclusion in the study. Powders were to be given daily between 6 and 18 months of age; follow-up was to age 2 years. Micronutrient powder sachets for groups B and C were identical except for colour; investigators and field and supervisory staff were masked to composition of the micronutrient powders until trial completion. Parents knew whether their child was receiving supplementation, but did not know whether the powder contained zinc. Primary outcomes were growth, episodes of diarrhoea, acute lower respiratory tract infection, fever, and incidence of admission to hospital. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00705445. RESULTS The trial was done between Nov 1, 2008, and Dec 31, 2011. 947 children were enrolled in group A clusters, 910 in group B clusters, and 889 in group C clusters. Micronutrient powder administration was associated with lower risk of iron-deficiency anaemia at 18 months compared with the control group (odds ratio [OR] for micronutrient powder without zinc=0·20, 95% CI 0·11-0·36; OR for micronutrient powder with zinc=0·25, 95% CI 0·14-0·44). Compared with the control group, children in the group receiving micronutrient powder without zinc gained an extra 0·31 cm (95% CI 0·03-0·59) between 6 and 18 months of age and children receiving micronutrient powder with zinc an extra 0·56 cm (0·29-0·84). We recorded strong evidence of an increased proportion of days with diarrhoea (p=0·001) and increased incidence of bloody diarrhoea (p=0·003) between 6 and 18 months in the two micronutrient powder groups, and reported chest indrawing (p=0·03). Incidence of febrile episodes or admission to hospital for diarrhoea, respiratory problems, or febrile episodes did not differ between the three groups. INTERPRETATION Use of micronutrient powders reduces iron-deficiency anaemia in young children. However, the excess burden of diarrhoea and respiratory morbidities associated with micronutrient powder use and the very small effect on growth recorded suggest that a careful assessment of risks and benefits must be done in populations with malnourished children and high diarrhoea burdens. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) of Diarrheal Disease in Infants and Young Children in Developing Countries: Epidemiologic and Clinical Methods of the Case/Control Study

Background. Diarrhea is a leading cause of illness and death among children aged <5 years in developing countries. This paper describes the clinical and epidemiological methods used to conduct the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS), a 3-year, prospective, age-stratified, case/control study to estimate the population-based burden, microbiologic etiology, and adverse clinical consequences of acute moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) among a censused population of children aged 0–59 months seeking care at health centers in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Methods. GEMS was conducted at 7 field sites, each serving a population whose demography and healthcare utilization practices for childhood diarrhea were documented. We aimed to enroll 220 MSD cases per year from selected health centers serving each site in each of 3 age strata (0–11, 12–23, and 24–59 months), along with 1–3 matched community controls. Cases and controls supplied clinical, epidemiologic, and anthropometric data at enrollment and again approximately 60 days later, and provided enrollment stool specimens for identification and characterization of potential diarrheal pathogens. Verbal autopsy was performed if a child died. Analytic strategies will calculate the fraction of MSD attributable to each pathogen and the incidence, financial costs, nutritional consequences, and case fatality overall and by pathogen. Conclusions. When completed, GEMS will provide estimates of the incidence, etiology, and outcomes of MSD among infants and young children in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. This information can guide development and implementation of public health interventions to diminish morbidity and mortality from diarrheal diseases.

Use of quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to identify causes of diarrhoea in children: a reanalysis of the GEMS case-control study

BACKGROUND Diarrhoea is the second leading cause of mortality in children worldwide, but establishing the cause can be complicated by diverse diagnostic approaches and varying test characteristics. We used quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to reassess causes of diarrhoea in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS). METHODS GEMS was a study of moderate to severe diarrhoea in children younger than 5 years in Africa and Asia. We used quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) to test for 32 enteropathogens in stool samples from cases and matched asymptomatic controls from GEMS, and compared pathogen-specific attributable incidences with those found with the original GEMS microbiological methods, including culture, EIA, and reverse-transcriptase PCR. We calculated revised pathogen-specific burdens of disease and assessed causes in individual children. FINDINGS We analysed 5304 sample pairs. For most pathogens, incidence was greater with qPCR than with the original methods, particularly for adenovirus 40/41 (around five times), Shigella spp or enteroinvasive Escherichia coli (EIEC) and Campylobactor jejuni o C coli (around two times), and heat-stable enterotoxin-producing E coli ([ST-ETEC] around 1·5 times). The six most attributable pathogens became, in descending order, Shigella spp, rotavirus, adenovirus 40/41, ST-ETEC, Cryptosporidium spp, and Campylobacter spp. Pathogen-attributable diarrhoeal burden was 89·3% (95% CI 83·2-96·0) at the population level, compared with 51·5% (48·0-55·0) in the original GEMS analysis. The top six pathogens accounted for 77·8% (74·6-80·9) of all attributable diarrhoea. With use of model-derived quantitative cutoffs to assess individual diarrhoeal cases, 2254 (42·5%) of 5304 cases had one diarrhoea-associated pathogen detected and 2063 (38·9%) had two or more, with Shigella spp and rotavirus being the pathogens most strongly associated with diarrhoea in children with mixed infections. INTERPRETATION A quantitative molecular diagnostic approach improved population-level and case-level characterisation of the causes of diarrhoea and indicated a high burden of disease associated with six pathogens, for which targeted treatment should be prioritised. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Development and assessment of molecular diagnostic tests for 15 enteropathogens causing childhood diarrhoea: a multicentre study

BACKGROUND Childhood diarrhoea can be caused by many pathogens that are difficult to assay in the laboratory. Molecular diagnostic techniques provide a uniform method to detect and quantify candidate enteropathogens. We aimed to develop and assess molecular tests for identification of enteropathogens and their association with disease. METHODS We developed and assessed molecular diagnostic tests for 15 enteropathogens across three platforms-PCR-Luminex, multiplex real-time PCR, and TaqMan array card-at five laboratories worldwide. We judged the analytical and clinical performance of these molecular techniques against comparator methods (bacterial culture, ELISA, and PCR) using 867 diarrhoeal and 619 non-diarrhoeal stool specimens. We also measured molecular quantities of pathogens to predict the association with diarrhoea, by univariate logistic regression analysis. FINDINGS The molecular tests showed very good analytical and clinical performance at all five laboratories. Comparator methods had limited sensitivity compared with the molecular techniques (20-85% depending on the target) but good specificity (median 97·3%, IQR 96·5-98·9; mean 95·2%, SD 9·1). Positive samples by comparator methods usually had higher molecular quantities of pathogens than did negative samples, across almost all platforms and for most pathogens (p<0·05). The odds ratio for diarrhoea at a given quantity (measured by quantification cycle, Cq) showed that for most pathogens associated with diarrhoea-including Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli, Cryptosporidium spp, enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, heat-stable enterotoxigenic E coli, rotavirus, Shigella spp and enteroinvasive E coli, and Vibrio cholerae-the strength of association with diarrhoea increased at higher pathogen loads. For example, Shigella spp at a Cq range of 15-20 had an odds ratio of 8·0 (p<0·0001), but at a Cq range of 25-30 the odds ratio fell to 1·7 (p=0·043). INTERPRETATION Molecular diagnostic tests can be implemented successfully and with fidelity across laboratories around the world. In the case of diarrhoea, these techniques can detect pathogens with high sensitivity and ascribe diarrhoeal associations based on quantification, including in mixed infections, providing rich and unprecedented measurements of infectious causes. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Next Generation Molecular Diagnostics Project.