Ann E Morey

Foraminiferal faunal estimates of paleotemperature: Circumventing the No‐analog problem yields cool Ice Age tropics

The sensitivity of the tropics to climate change, particularly the amplitude of glacial-to-interglacial changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is one of the great controversies in paleoclimatology. Here we reassess faunal estimates of ice age SSTs, focusing on the problem of no-analog planktonic foraminiferal assemblages in the equatorial oceans that confounds both classical transfer function and modern analog methods. A new calibration strategy developed here, which uses past variability of species to define robust faunal assemblages, solves the no-analog problem and reveals ice age cooling of 5 o to 6oC in the equatorial current systems of the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans. Classical transfer functions underestimated temperature changes in some areas of the tropical oceans because core-top assemblages misrepresented the ice age faunal assemblages. Our finding is consistent with some geochemical estimates and model predictions of greater ice age cooling in the tropics than was inferred by Climate: Long-Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) (1981) and thus may help to resolve a long-standing controversy. Our new foraminiferal transfer function suggests that such cooling was limited to the equatorial current systems, however, and supports CLIMAPs inference of stability of the subtropical gyre centers.

Late Holocene Rupture of the Northern San Andreas Fault and Possible Stress Linkage to the Cascadia Subduction Zone

We relate the late Holocene northern San Andreas fault (NSAF) paleo- seismic history developed using marine sediment cores along the northern California continental margin to a similar dataset of cores collected along the Cascadia margin, including channels from Barclay Canyon off Vancouver Island to just north of Mon- terey Bay. Stratigraphic correlation and evidence of synchronous triggering imply earthquake origin, and both temporal records are compatible with onshore paleoseis- mic data. In order to make comparisons between the temporal earthquake records from the NSAF and Cascadia, we refine correlations of southern Cascadia great earth- quakes, including the land paleoseismic record. Along the NSAF during the last ∼2800 yr, 15 turbidites, including one likely from the great 1906 earthquake, establish an average repeat time of ∼200 yr, similar to the onshore value of ∼240 yr. The combined land and marine paleoseismic record from the southern Cascadia subduction zone includes a similar number of events during the same period. While the average recurrence interval for full-margin Cascadia events is ∼520 yr, the southern Cascadia margin has a repeat time of ∼220 yr, similar to that of the NSAF. Thirteen of the 15 NSAF events were preceded by Cascadia events by ∼0-80 yr, averaging 25-45 yr (as compared to ∼80-400 yr by which Cascadia events follow the NSAF). Based on the temporal association, we model the coseismic and cumulative post- seismic deformation from great Cascadia megathrust events and compute related stress changes along the NSAF in order to test the possibility that Cascadia earth- quakes triggered the penultimate, and perhaps other, NSAF events. The Coulomb fail- ure stress (CFS) resulting from viscous deformation related to a Cascadia earthquake over ∼60 yr does not contribute significantly to the total CFS on the NSAF. However, the coseismic deformation increases CFS on the northern San Andreas fault (NSAF )b y up to about 9 bars offshore of Point Delgada, most likely enough to trigger that fault to fail in north-to-south propagating ruptures.

A 6600 year earthquake history in the region of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone earthquake

In order to investigate the possibility of a long-term paleoseismic history from offshore sedimentary records in Sumatra, we collected 144 deep-sea sediment cores in the trench and in lower slope piggyback basins of the Sumatra accretionary prism. We used multibeam bathymetry and seismic reflection data to develop an understanding of catchment basins, turbidity current pathways, and depositional styles, as well as to precisely locate our gravity cores, piston cores, Kasten cores, and multicores. We use detailed physical property data, including computed tomographic X-ray, gamma density, magnetic susceptibility, grain-size analysis, faunal analysis, and smear slides, to evaluate the turbidite stratigraphy and sedimentology at each site. We use radiocarbon age control for piggyback basin sites above the carbonate compensation depth, and use 210 Pb and 137 Cs to evaluate the timing of the most recent sedimentary deposits. Using well-log correlation methods and radiometric age control, we test for potential correlations between isolated sites in piggyback basins and the trench. We find evidence for very young surface turbidites along the northern Sumatra margin, most likely emplaced within the past few decades at the seafloor in both the 2004 and 2005 earthquake rupture zones, with no overlying hemipelagic sediment. Based on the young soupy deposits, lack of oxidation, and 210 Pb and 14 C age determinations, we interpret the uppermost turbidite in 21 cores within the 2004 rupture area to have been deposited within a few years of collection in 2007, and most likely as a result of the 2004 moment magnitude (M w ) ∼9.2 earthquake. The likely 2004 turbidite has a distinctive stacked structure of three major fining-upward sequences observed at several basin and trench sites, similar to the pattern of moment release in the 2004 earthquake. We observe rapid die out of the 2004 and 2005 deposits with distance from the slip zones, from local sources of sediment supply, and in the segment boundary between the slip zones. Many individual turbidites show strong similarities between isolated sites, as well as having similar emplacement times. Based upon radiocarbon age control and lithostratigraphic correlations between isolated basin and trench core sites, we interpret that 43 turbidites can be linked spatially over a distance of ∼230 km within the southern portion of the 2004 rupture zone. Sampling at deep-water sites isolated from terrestrial and shallow-water sediment sources, as well as potential storm or tsunami wave triggers, limits potential mechanisms for initiating turbidity currents to plate boundary, crustal, or slab earthquakes. Other potential triggers, such as tectonic oversteepening, random self-failures, gas hydrate destabilization, are unlikely to be correlative between any two isolated sites. The most probable explanation for the similarity of timing, turbidite sequences, and individual turbidite structure in isolated basin and trench stratigraphic sequences is a seismogenic origin. The mean emplacement time for turbidites (likely triggered by Great earthquakes, magnitude > ∼8) in the 2004 rupture region for the past 6.6 ± 0.14 k.y. is 160 yr for 43 turbidites. The ages of 8 of the 10 uppermost turbidite deposits, spanning the past ∼1500 yr, are largely consistent with the terrestrial paleoseismic and/or tsunami records in Thailand, Sumatra, India, and the Andaman Islands, suggesting either coincidence or a common origin. The mean interseismic time from the turbidite record for this same period is 170 yr, comparable to the ∼210 yr recurrence for regional tsunami. The turbidite record, at 180 yr (6 events), compares reasonably well to the average for all events on northern Simeulue of 220 yr, and is identical to the tsunami interval of 180 yr for the same time period (6 events). Of the 43 correlated turbidites in the 2004 earthquake region, 13 are well correlated in our cores along strike lengths of 150 km or greater, and satisfy criteria for robustness; 24 turbidites correlated along a shorter strike distance may represent other plate boundary earthquakes of shorter spatial extent and may include turbidite beds sourced from crustal and slab earthquakes.

Earthquake Control of Holocene Turbidite Frequency Confirmed by Hemipelagic Sedimentation Chronology on the Cascadia and Northern California Active Continental Margins

This paper analyzes recurrence times of Holocene turbidites as proxies for earthquakes on the Cascadia and northern California active margins of western Northern America. We compare the age, frequency, and recurrence time intervals of turbidites using two methods: (1) radiometric dating (14C method), and (2) relative dating, using hemipelagic sediment thickness and sedimentation rates (H method). The two approaches complement each other, and when used together provide a better age framework than 14C ages alone. Comparison of hemipelagic sediment thickness in several cores from the same site is used to evaluate the erosiveness of turbidity currents and improve the correlation of turbidites and consequent paleoseismic history based only on less complete and unrefined data sets of 14C turbidite ages along the continental margin. Chronology of hemipelagic sediment thickness provides (1) the best estimate of minimum recurrence times, which are the most important for seismic hazards risk analysis, and (2) the most complete dataset of recurrence times, which shows a normal distribution pattern for paleoseismic turbidite frequencies. We observe that on these tectonically active continental margins, during the sea-level highstand of Holocene time, triggering of turbidity currents is controlled dominantly by earthquakes, and paleoseismic turbidites have an average recurrence time of ~ 550 yr in northern Cascadia Basin and ~ 200 yr along northern California margin. This difference in frequency of turbidites in a subduction zone compared to a transform-fault margin suggests significant differences in earthquake activity that compare favorably with independent paleoseismic indicators.

Can turbidites be used to reconstruct a paleoearthquake record for the central Sumatran margin?: COMMENT

Chris Goldfinger, Jason R. Patton, Maarten Van Daele, Jasper Moernaut, C. Hans Nelson, Marc de Batist, and Ann E. Morey Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, 104 Ocean Administration Building, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA Renard Centre of Marine Geology (RCMG), Department of Geology and Soil Science, Ghent University, Krijgslaan 281/S8, Gent B-9000, Belgium Geological Institute NO G47, Sonneggstrasse 5, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland Instituto Andaluz de Ciencias de la Tierra (IACT) CSIC-Universidad de Granada, Campus de Fuentenueva s/n, 18002 Granada, Spain

High resolution lake sediment record reveals self-organized criticality in erosion processes regulated by internal feedbacks

Reconstruction of high‐frequency erosion variability beyond the instrumental record requires well‐dated, high‐resolution proxies from sediment archives. We used computed tomography (CT) scans of finely laminated silt layers from a lake‐sediment record in southwest Oregon to quantify the magnitude of natural landscape erosion events over the last 2000 years in order to compare with palaeorecords of climate, forest fire, and seismic triggers. Sedimentation rates were modeled from an age–depth relationship fit through five 14C dates and the 1964 AD 137Cs peak in which deposition time (yr mm‐1) varied inversely with the proportion of silt sediment measured by the CT profile. This model resulted in pseudo‐annual estimates of silt deposition for the last 2000 years. Silt accumulation during the past 80 years was strongly correlated with river‐discharge at annual and decadal scales, revealing that erosion was highly responsive to precipitation during the logging era (1930–present). Before logging the frequency–magnitude relationship displayed a power‐law distribution that is characteristic of complex feedbacks and self‐regulating mechanisms. The 100‐year and 10‐year erosion magnitude estimated in a 99‐year moving window varied by 1.7 and 1.0 orders of magnitude, respectively. Decadal erosion magnitude was only moderately positively correlated with a summer temperature reconstruction over the period 900–1900 AD. Magnitude of the seven largest events was similar to the cumulative silt accumulation anomaly, suggesting these events ‘returned the system’ to the long‐term mean rate. Instead, the occurrence of most erosion events was related to fire (silt layers preceded by high charcoal concentration) and earthquakes (the seven thickest layers often match paleo‐earthquake dates). Our data show how internal (i.e. sediment production) and external processes (natural fires or more stochastic events such as earthquakes) co‐determine erosion regimes at millennial time scales, and the extent to which such processes can be offset by recent large‐scale deforestation by logging.

High resolution lake sediment record reveals self-organized criticality in erosion processes regulated by internal feedbacks: Drivers of erosion variability estimated by a high-resolution record

Reconstruction of high‐frequency erosion variability beyond the instrumental record requires well‐dated, high‐resolution proxies from sediment archives. We used computed tomography (CT) scans of finely laminated silt layers from a lake‐sediment record in southwest Oregon to quantify the magnitude of natural landscape erosion events over the last 2000 years in order to compare with palaeorecords of climate, forest fire, and seismic triggers. Sedimentation rates were modeled from an age–depth relationship fit through five 14C dates and the 1964 AD 137Cs peak in which deposition time (yr mm‐1) varied inversely with the proportion of silt sediment measured by the CT profile. This model resulted in pseudo‐annual estimates of silt deposition for the last 2000 years. Silt accumulation during the past 80 years was strongly correlated with river‐discharge at annual and decadal scales, revealing that erosion was highly responsive to precipitation during the logging era (1930–present). Before logging the frequency–magnitude relationship displayed a power‐law distribution that is characteristic of complex feedbacks and self‐regulating mechanisms. The 100‐year and 10‐year erosion magnitude estimated in a 99‐year moving window varied by 1.7 and 1.0 orders of magnitude, respectively. Decadal erosion magnitude was only moderately positively correlated with a summer temperature reconstruction over the period 900–1900 AD. Magnitude of the seven largest events was similar to the cumulative silt accumulation anomaly, suggesting these events ‘returned the system’ to the long‐term mean rate. Instead, the occurrence of most erosion events was related to fire (silt layers preceded by high charcoal concentration) and earthquakes (the seven thickest layers often match paleo‐earthquake dates). Our data show how internal (i.e. sediment production) and external processes (natural fires or more stochastic events such as earthquakes) co‐determine erosion regimes at millennial time scales, and the extent to which such processes can be offset by recent large‐scale deforestation by logging.