Chris Goldfinger

Rotation and plate locking at the Southern Cascadia Subduction Zone

Global Positioning System vectors and surface tiltratesareinvertedsimultaneouslyfortherotationofwest- ernOregonandplate lockingonthesouthernCascadia sub- duction thrust fault. Plate locking appears to be largely oshore, consistent with earlier studies, and is sucient to allow occasional great earthquakes inferred from geology. Clockwise rotation ofmostofOregonaboutanearbypoleis likely driven by collapse of the Basin and Range and results in shortening in NW Washington State. The rotation pole liesalongtheOlympic-Wallowalineamentandexplainsthe predominanceofextensionsouthofthepoleandcontraction north of it.

GPS‐determination of along‐strike variation in Cascadia margin kinematics: Implications for relative plate motion, subduction zone coupling, and permanent deformation

High-precision GPS geodesy in the Pacific Northwest provides the first synoptic view of the along-strike variation in Cascadia margin kinematics. These results con- strain interfering deformation fields in a region where typical earthquake recurrence intervals are one or more orders of mag- nitude longer than the decades-long history of seismic moni- toring and where geologic studies are sparse. Interseismic strain accumulation contributes greatly to GPS station veloci- ties along the coast. After correction for a simple elastic dis- location model, important residual motions remain, especially south of the international border. The magnitude of northward forearc motion increases southward from western Washington (3-7 mm/yr)to northern and central Oregon (-9 mm/yr), con- sistent with oblique convergence and geologic constraints on permanent deformation. The margin-parallel strain gradient, concentrated in western Washington across the populated Puget Lowlands, compares in magnitude to shortening across the Los Angeles Basin. Thus crustal faulting also contributes to seismic hazard. Farther south in southern Oregon, north- westward velocities reflect the influence of Pacific-North America motion and impingement of the Sierra Nevada block on the Pacific Northwest. In contrast to previous notions, some deformation related to the Eastern California shear zone crosses northernmost California in the vicinity of the Klamath Mountains and feeds out to the Gorda plate margin.

Late Holocene Rupture of the Northern San Andreas Fault and Possible Stress Linkage to the Cascadia Subduction Zone

We relate the late Holocene northern San Andreas fault (NSAF) paleo- seismic history developed using marine sediment cores along the northern California continental margin to a similar dataset of cores collected along the Cascadia margin, including channels from Barclay Canyon off Vancouver Island to just north of Mon- terey Bay. Stratigraphic correlation and evidence of synchronous triggering imply earthquake origin, and both temporal records are compatible with onshore paleoseis- mic data. In order to make comparisons between the temporal earthquake records from the NSAF and Cascadia, we refine correlations of southern Cascadia great earth- quakes, including the land paleoseismic record. Along the NSAF during the last ∼2800 yr, 15 turbidites, including one likely from the great 1906 earthquake, establish an average repeat time of ∼200 yr, similar to the onshore value of ∼240 yr. The combined land and marine paleoseismic record from the southern Cascadia subduction zone includes a similar number of events during the same period. While the average recurrence interval for full-margin Cascadia events is ∼520 yr, the southern Cascadia margin has a repeat time of ∼220 yr, similar to that of the NSAF. Thirteen of the 15 NSAF events were preceded by Cascadia events by ∼0-80 yr, averaging 25-45 yr (as compared to ∼80-400 yr by which Cascadia events follow the NSAF). Based on the temporal association, we model the coseismic and cumulative post- seismic deformation from great Cascadia megathrust events and compute related stress changes along the NSAF in order to test the possibility that Cascadia earth- quakes triggered the penultimate, and perhaps other, NSAF events. The Coulomb fail- ure stress (CFS) resulting from viscous deformation related to a Cascadia earthquake over ∼60 yr does not contribute significantly to the total CFS on the NSAF. However, the coseismic deformation increases CFS on the northern San Andreas fault (NSAF )b y up to about 9 bars offshore of Point Delgada, most likely enough to trigger that fault to fail in north-to-south propagating ruptures.

Geophysical constraints on the surface distribution of authigenic carbonates across the Hydrate Ridge region, Cascadia margin

On active tectonic margins methane-rich pore fluids are expelled during the sediment compaction and dewatering that accompany accretionary wedge development. Once these fluids reach the shallow subsurface they become oxidized and precipitate cold seep authigenic carbonates. Faults or high-porosity stratigraphic horizons can serve as conduits for fluid flow, which can be derived from deep within the wedge and/or, if at seafloor depths greater than ∼300 m, from the shallow source of methane and water contained in subsurface and surface gas hydrates. The distribution of fluid expulsion sites can be mapped regionally using sidescan sonar systems, which record the locations of surface and slightly buried authigenic carbonates due to their impedence contrast with the surrounding hemipelagic sediment. Hydrate Ridge lies within the gas hydrate stability field offshore central Oregon and during the last 15 years several studies have documented gas hydrate and cold seep carbonate occurrence in the region. In 1999, we collected deep-towed SeaMARC 30 sidescan sonar imagery across the Hydrate Ridge region to determine the spatial distribution of cold seep carbonates and their relationship to subsurface structure and the underlying gas hydrate system. High backscatter on the imagery is divided into three categories, (I) circular to blotchy with apparent surface roughness, (II) circular to blotchy with no apparent surface roughness, and (III) streaky to continuous with variable surface roughness. We interpret the distribution of high backscatter, as well as the locations of mud volcanoes and pockmarks, to indicate variations in the intensity and activity of fluid flow across the Hydrate Ridge region. Seafloor observations and sampling verify the acoustic signals across the survey area and aid in this interpretation. Subsurface structural mapping and swath bathymetry suggest the fluid venting is focused at the crests of anticlinal structures like Hydrate Ridge and the uplifts along the Daisy Bank fault zone. Geochemical parameters link authigenic carbonates on Hydrate Ridge to the underlying gas hydrate system and suggest that some of the carbonates have formed in equilibrium with fluids derived directly from the destabilization of gas hydrate. This suggests carbonates are formed not only from the methane in ascending fluids from depth, but also from the shallow source of methane released during the dissociation of gas hydrate. The decreased occurrence of high-backscatter patches and the dramatic reduction in pockmark fields, imaged on the eastern part of the survey, suggest gas hydrate near its upper stability limit may be easily destabilized and thus, responsible for these seafloor features. High backscatter along the left-lateral Daisy Bank fault suggests a long history of deep-seated fluid venting, probably unrelated to destabilized gas hydrate in the subsurface.

Oblique strike-slip faulting of the central Cascadia submarine forearc

At least nine WNW trending left-lateral strike-slip faults have been mapped on the Oregon-Washington continental margin using sidescan sonar, seismic reflection, and bathymetric data, augmented by submersible observations. The faults range in length from 33 to 115 km and cross much of the continental slope. Five faults offset both the Juan de Fuca plate and North American plates and cross the plate boundary with little or no offset by the frontal thrust. Left-lateral separation of channels, folds, and Holocene sediments indicate active slip during the Holocene and late Pleistocene. Offset of surficial features ranges from 120 to 900 m, and displaced subsurface piercing points at the seaward ends of the faults indicate a minimum of 2.2 to 5.5 km of total slip. Near their western tips, fault ages range from 300 ka to 650 ka, yielding late Pleistocene-Holocene slip rates of 5.5±2 to 8.5±2 mm/yr. The geometry and slip direction of these faults implies clockwise rotation of fault-bounded blocks about vertical axes within the Cascadia forearc. Structural relationships indicate that some of the faults probably originate in the Juan de Fuca plate and propagate into the overlying forearc. The basement-involved faults may originate as shears antithetic to a dextral shear couple within the slab, as plate-coupling forces are probably insufficient to rupture the oceanic lithosphere. The set of sinistral faults is consistent with a model of regional deformation of the submarine forearc (defined to include the deforming slab) by right simple shear driven by oblique subduction of the Juan de Fuca plate.

Tectonics of the Neogene Cascadia forearc basin: Investigations of a deformed late Miocene unconformity

The continental shelf and upper slope of the Oregon Cascadia margin are underlain by an elongate late Cenozoic forearc basin, correlative to the Eel River basin of northern California. Basin stratigraphy includes a regional late Miocene unconformity that may coincide with a worldwide hiatus ca. 7.5–6 Ma (NH6). The unconformity is angular and probably subaerially eroded on the inner and middle shelf, whereas the seaward correlative disconformity may have been produced by submarine erosion; alternatively, this horizon may be conformable. Tectonic uplift resulting in subaerial erosion may have been driven by a change in Pacific and Juan de Fuca plate motion. A structure contour map of the deformed unconformity and correlated seaward reflector from seismic reflection data clearly outlines deformation into major synclines and uplifted submarine banks. Regional marginparallel variations in uplift rates of the shelf unconformity show agreement with coastal geodetic rates. The shelf basin is bounded to the west by a north-south–trending outer arc high. Rapid uplift and possible eustatic sea-level fall resulted in the formation of the late Miocene unconformity. Basin subsidence and outer arc high uplift effectively trapped sediments within the basin, which resulted in a relatively starved abyssal floor and narrower Pliocene accretionary wedge, particularly during sealevel highstands. During the Pleistocene, the outer arc high was breached, possibly contributing to Astoria Canyon incision, the primary downslope conduit of Columbia River sediments. This event may have caused a change in sediment provenance on the abyssal plain ca. 1.3–1.4 Ma.

Forearc deformation and great subduction earthquakes: implications for cascadia offshore earthquake potential.

The maximum size of thrust earthquakes at the worlds subduction zones appears to be limited by anelastic deformation of the overriding plate. Anelastic strain in weak forearcs and roughness of the plate interface produced by faults cutting the forearc may limit the size of thrust earthquakes by inhibiting the buildup of elastic strain energy or slip propagation or both. Recently discovered active strike-slip faults in the submarine forearc of the Cascadia subduction zone show that the upper plate there deforms rapidly in response to arc-parallel shear. Thus, Cascadia, as a result of its weak, deforming upper plate, may be the type of subduction zone at which great (moment magnitude ≈ 9) thrust earthquakes do not occur.

Listric normal faulting on the Cascadia continental margin

Analysis of multichannel seismic reflection profiles reveals that listric normal faulting is widespread on the northern Oregon and Washington continental shelf and upper slope, suggesting E-W extension in this region. Fault activity began in the late Miocene and, in some cases, has continued into the Holocene. Most listric faults sole out into a subhorizontal d6collement coincident with the upper contact of an Eocene to middle Miocene m61ange and broken formation (MBF), known as the Hoh rock assemblage onshore, whereas other faults penetrate and offset the top of the MBF. The areal distribution of extensional faulting on the shelf and upper slope is similar to the subsurface distribution of the MBF. Evidence onshore and on the continental shelf suggests that the MBF is overpressured and mobile. For listric faults which become subhorizontal at depth, these elevated pore pressures may be sufficient to reduce effective stress and to allow downslope movement of the overlying stratigraphic section along a low-angle (0.1o-2.5 o) detachment coincident with the upper MBF contact. Mobilization, extension, and unconstrained westward movement of the MBF may also contribute to brittle extension of the overlying sediments. No Pliocene or Quaternary extensional faults have been identified off the central Oregon or northernmost Washington coast, where the shelf is underlain by the rigid basaltic basement of the Siletzia terrane. Quaternary extension of the shelf and upper slope is contemporaneous with active accretion and thrust faulting on the lower slope, suggesting that the shelf and upper slope are decoupled from subduction-related compression.

Active deformation of the Gorda plate: Constraining deformation models with new geophysical data

The Gorda plate, the southernmost fragment of the larger Juan de Fuca plate system, is an example of a nonrigidly deforming tectonic accommodation zone or buffer plate, absorbing deformation and allowing the surrounding larger plates to act in a more rigid fashion. Here we present a new structural analysis of the plate based on full-plate bathy- metric coverage, augmented by seismic reflection data and earthquake moment tensors and locations. We interpret internal deformation of the Gorda plate as an asymmetrical flexural-slip buckle with a vertical axis, utilizing reactivation of spreading-ridge fabric normal faults as strike-slip faults. Newly formed second-generation faults crosscutting the structural grain overprint the reactivated structures. The spreading fabric faults finally begin a second phase of extension as the plate approaches the subduction zone. This model, based on fault constraints, has allowed investigation of ridge-plate-subduction interac- tions, and suggests that spreading-rate variations along the Gorda Ridge may be con- trolled by internal deformation of the plate rather than the reverse, as previously hypothesized.

Magnitude Limits of Subduction Zone Earthquakes

Maximum earthquake magnitude ( m x ) is a critical parameter in seismic hazard and risk analysis. However, some recent large earthquakes have shown that most of the existing methods for estimating m x are inadequate. Moreover, m x itself is ill‐defined because its meaning largely depends on the context, and it usually cannot be inferred using existing data without associating it with a time interval. In this study, we use probable maximum earthquake magnitude within a time period of interest, m p( T ), to replace m x . The term m p( T ) contains not only the information of magnitude limit but also the occurrence rate of the extreme events. We estimate m p( T ) for circum‐Pacific subduction zones using tapered Gutenberg–Richter (TGR) distributions. The estimation of the two TGR parameters, β ‐value and corner magnitude ( m c), is performed using the maximum‐likelihood method with the constraint from tectonic moment rate. To populate the TGR, the rates of smaller earthquakes are needed. We apply the Whole Earth model, a high‐resolution global estimate of the rate of m ≥5 earthquakes, to estimate these rates. The uncertainties of m p( T ) are calculated using Monte‐Carlo simulation. Our results show that most of the circum‐Pacific subduction zones can generate m ≥8.5 earthquakes over a 250‐year interval, m ≥8.8 earthquakes over a 500‐year interval, and m ≥9.0 earthquakes over a 10,000‐year interval. For the Cascadia subduction zone, we include the 10,000‐year paleoseismic record based on turbidite studies to supplement the limited instrumental earthquake data. Our results show that over a 500‐year period, m ≥8.8 earthquakes are expected in this zone; over a 1000‐year period, m ≥9.0 earthquakes are expected; and over a 10,000‐year period, m ≥9.3 earthquakes are expected.