Ann M. Geiger

Predictors of Tamoxifen Discontinuation Among Older Women With Estrogen Receptor–Positive Breast Cancer

PURPOSE Five years of adjuvant tamoxifen therapy for estrogen receptor (ER) -positive breast cancer is more effective than 2 years of use. However, information on tamoxifen discontinuation is scanty. We sought to identify predictors of tamoxifen discontinuation among older women with breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS Within six health care delivery systems, we identified women >or= 65 years old diagnosed with stage I to IIB ER-positive or indeterminant breast cancer between 1990 and 1994 who had filled a prescription for adjuvant tamoxifen. We observed them for 5 years after initial tamoxifen prescription. We used automated pharmacy records to validate tamoxifen prescription information abstracted from medical records. The primary end point was tamoxifen discontinuation, operationalized as ever discontinuing tamoxifen during 5 years of follow-up. We used Cox proportional hazards to identify predictors of tamoxifen discontinuation. RESULTS Of 961 women who were prescribed tamoxifen, 49% discontinued tamoxifen before the completion of 5 years. Discontinuers were more likely to be aged 75 to less than 80 years (v < 70 years; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.41; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.87), be aged >or= 80 years (HR = 2.02; 95% CI, 1.53 to 2.66), have an increase in Charlson Comorbidity Index at 3 years from diagnosis (HR = 1.52; 95% CI, 1.18 to 1.95), have an increase in the number of cardiopulmonary comorbidities at 3 years (HR = 1.75; 95% CI, 1.34 to 2.28), have indeterminant ER status (v ER-positive status; HR = 1.36; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.85), and have received breast-conserving surgery (BCS) without radiotherapy (v mastectomy; HR = 1.62; 95% CI, 1.18 to 2.22). CONCLUSION Attention to nonadherence among older women at risk of discontinuation, particularly those receiving BCS without radiotherapy, might improve breast cancer outcomes for these women.

Efficacy of Prophylactic Mastectomy in Women With Unilateral Breast Cancer: A Cancer Research Network Project

PURPOSE We investigated the efficacy of contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) in reducing contralateral breast cancer incidence and breast cancer mortality among women who have already been diagnosed with breast cancer. METHODS This retrospective cohort study comprised approximately 50,000 women who were diagnosed with unilateral breast cancer during 1979 to 1999. Using computerized data confirmed by chart review, we identified 1,072 women (1.9%) who had CPM. We obtained covariate information for these women and for a sample of 317 women who did not undergo CPM. RESULTS The median time from initial breast cancer diagnosis to the end of follow-up was 5.7 years. Contralateral breast cancer developed in 0.5% of women with CPM, metastatic disease developed in 10.5%, and subsequent breast cancer developed in 12.4%; 8.1% died from breast cancer. Contralateral breast cancer developed in 2.7% of women without CPM, and 11.7% died of breast cancer. After adjustment for initial breast cancer characteristics, treatment, and breast cancer risk factors, the hazard ratio (HR) for the occurrence of contralateral breast cancer after CPM was 0.03 (95% CI, 0.006 to 0.13). After adjustment for breast cancer characteristics and treatment, the HRs for the relationship of CPM with death from breast cancer, with death from other causes, and with all-cause mortality were 0.57 (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.72), 0.78 (95% CI, 0.57 to 1.06), and 0.60 (95% CI, 0.50 to 0.72), respectively. CONCLUSION CPM seems to protect against the development of contralateral breast cancer, and although women who underwent CPM had relatively low all-cause mortality, CPM also was associated with decreased breast cancer mortality.

A most stubborn bias: No adjustment method fully resolves confounding by indication in observational studies

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the effectiveness of methods that control for confounding by indication, we compared breast cancer recurrence rates among women receiving adjuvant chemotherapy with those who did not. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING In a medical record review-based study of breast cancer treatment in older women (n=1798) diagnosed between 1990 and 1994, our crude analysis suggested that adjuvant chemotherapy was positively associated with recurrence (hazard ratio [HR]=2.6; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.9, 3.5). We expected a protective effect, so postulated that the crude association was confounded by indications for chemotherapy. We attempted to adjust for this confounding by restriction, multivariable regression, propensity scores (PSs), and instrumental variable (IV) methods. RESULTS After restricting to women at high risk for recurrence (n=946), chemotherapy was not associated with recurrence (HR=1.1; 95% CI=0.7, 1.6) using multivariable regression. PS adjustment yielded similar results (HR=1.3; 95% CI=0.8, 2.0). The IV-like method yielded a protective estimate (HR=0.9; 95% CI=0.2, 4.3); however, imbalances of measured factors across levels of the IV suggested residual confounding. CONCLUSION Conventional methods do not control for unmeasured factors, which often remain important when addressing confounding by indication. PS and IV analysis methods can be useful under specific situations, but neither method adequately controlled confounding by indication in this study.

Morbidity and mortality in long-term survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma: a report from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

The contribution of specific cancer therapies, comorbid medical conditions, and host factors to mortality risk after pediatric Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is unclear. We assessed leading morbidities, overall and cause-specific mortality, and mortality risks among 2742 survivors of HL in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study, a multi-institutional retrospective cohort study of survivors diagnosed from 1970 to 1986. Excess absolute risk for leading causes of death and cumulative incidence and standardized incidence ratios of key medical morbidities were calculated. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of risks for overall and cause-specific mortality. Substantial excess absolute risk of mortality per 10,000 person-years was identified: overall 95.5; death due to HL 38.3, second malignant neoplasms 23.9, and cardiovascular disease 13.1. Risks for overall mortality included radiation dose ≥ 3000 rad ( ≥ 30 Gy; supra-diaphragm: HR, 3.8; 95% CI, 1.1-12.6; infradiaphragm + supradiaphragm: HR, 7.8; 95% CI, 2.4-25.1), exposure to anthracycline (HR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.6-4.3) or alkylating agents (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2-2.5), non-breast second malignant neoplasm (HR, 2.6; 95% CI 1.4-5.1), or a serious cardiovascular condition (HR, 4.4; 95% CI 2.7-7.3). Excess mortality from second neoplasms and cardiovascular disease vary by sex and persist > 20 years of follow-up in childhood HL survivors.

Geriatric assessment predicts survival for older adults receiving induction chemotherapy for acute myelogenous leukemia

We investigated the predictive value of geriatric assessment (GA) on overall survival (OS) for older adults with acute myelogenous leukemia (AML). Consecutive patients ≥ 60 years with newly diagnosed AML and planned intensive chemotherapy were enrolled at a single institution. Pretreatment GA included evaluation of cognition, depression, distress, physical function (PF) (self-reported and objectively measured), and comorbidity. Objective PF was assessed using the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB, timed 4-m walk, chair stands, standing balance) and grip strength. Cox proportional hazards models were fit for each GA measure as a predictor of OS. Among 74 patients, the mean age was 70 years, and 78.4% had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) score ≤ 1. OS was significantly shorter for participants who screened positive for impairment in cognition and objectively measured PF. Adjusting for age, gender, ECOG score, cytogenetic risk group, myelodysplastic syndrome, and hemoglobin, impaired cognition (Modified Mini-Mental State Exam < 77) and impaired objective PF (SPPB < 9) were associated with worse OS. GA methods, with a focus on cognitive and PF, improve risk stratification and may inform interventions to improve outcomes for older AML patients.

Vaginal birth after cesarean delivery: an admission scoring system.

Objective To develop a scoring system to predict the likelihood of vaginal birth in patients undergoing a trial of labor after previous cesarian delivery using factors known at the time of hospital admission. Methods Trial of labor was attempted in 5022 patients who were assigned randomly to score derivation and score testing groups. Multivariate logistic regression modeling was used in the score derivation group to develop a predictive scoring system for vaginal birth. The scoring system was then applied to the testing group to evaluate its predictive ability. Results Five variables significantly affected the mode of birth and were incorporated into a weighted scoring system. Rates of successful vaginal birth after cesarean ranged from 49% in patients scoring 0–2 to 95% in patients scoring 8–10. Increasing score was associated linearly with increasing probability of vaginal birth after cesarean. Conclusion increasing scores correlate with increasing probability of vaginal birth after cesarean. The admission vaginal birth after cesarean scoring system may be useful in counseling patients regarding the option of vaginal birth or repeat cesarean delivery. This information could be particularly valuable for the patient who opts for trial of labor but has second thoughts about her mode of birth when labor begins.

Mammography Surveillance and Mortality in Older Breast Cancer Survivors

PURPOSE There are more than 2,000,000 breast cancer survivors in the United States today. While surveillance for asymptomatic recurrence and second primary is included in consensus recommendations, the effectiveness of this surveillance has not been well characterized. Our purpose is to estimate the effectiveness of surveillance mammography in a cohort of breast cancer survivors with complete ascertainment of surveillance mammograms and negligible losses to follow-up. PATIENTS AND METHODS We enrolled 1,846 stage I and II breast cancer patients who were at least 65 years old at six integrated health care delivery systems. We used medical record review and existing databases to ascertain patient, tumor, and therapy characteristics, as well as receipt of surveillance mammograms. We linked personal identifiers to the National Death Index to ascertain date and cause of death. We matched four controls to each breast cancer decedent to estimate the association between receipt of surveillance mammogram and breast cancer mortality. RESULTS One hundred seventy-eight women died of breast cancer during 5 years of follow-up. Each additional surveillance mammogram was associated with a 0.69-fold decrease in the odds of breast cancer mortality (95% CI, 0.52 to 0.92). The protective association was strongest among women with stage I disease, those who received mastectomy, and those in the oldest age group. CONCLUSION Given existing recommendations for post-therapy surveillance, trials to compare surveillance with no surveillance are unlikely. This large observational study provides support for the recommendations, suggesting that receipt of surveillance mammograms reduces the rate of breast cancer mortality in older patients diagnosed with early-stage disease.

Contentment With Quality of Life Among Breast Cancer Survivors With and Without Contralateral Prophylactic Mastectomy

PURPOSE To understand psychosocial outcomes after prophylactic removal of the contralateral breast in women with unilateral breast cancer. METHODS We mailed surveys to women with contralateral prophylactic mastectomy after breast cancer diagnosis between 1979 and 1999 at six health care delivery systems, and to a smaller random sample of women with breast cancer without the procedure. Measures were modeled on instruments developed to assess contentment with quality of life, body image, sexual satisfaction, breast cancer concern, depression, and health perception. We examined associations between quality of life and the other domains using logistic regression. RESULTS The response rate was 72.6%. Among 519 women who underwent contralateral prophylactic mastectomy, 86.5% were satisfied with their decision; 76.3% reported high contentment with quality of life compared with 75.4% of 61 women who did not undergo the procedure (P = .88). Among all case subjects, less contentment with quality of life was not associated with contralateral prophylactic mastectomy or demographic characteristics, but was associated with poor or fair general health perception (odds ratio [OR], 7.0; 95% CI, 3.4 to 14.1); possible depression (OR, 5.4; 95% CI, 3.1 to 9.2); dissatisfaction with appearance when dressed (OR, 3.5; 95% CI, 2.0 to 6.0); self-consciousness about appearance (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1 to 3.7); and avoiding thoughts about breast cancer (modest: OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.1 to 4.5; highest: OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 0.9 to 3.2). CONCLUSION Most women undergoing contralateral prophylactic mastectomy report satisfaction with their decision and experience psychosocial outcomes similar to breast cancer survivors without the procedure.

Recurrences and second primary breast cancers in older women with initial early-stage disease.

The association between common breast cancer therapies and recurrences and second primary breast cancers in older women is unclear, although older women are less likely to receive common therapies.

Effect of health beliefs on delays in care for abnormal cervical cytology in a multiethnic population

AbstractCONTEXT: Women from racial and ethnic minorities in the United States have higher rates of cervical cancer and present with later stage disease compared to whites. Delays in care for abnormal Papanicolaou (Pap) smears can lead to missed cases of cervical cancer or late-stage presentation and may be one explanation for these differences. OBJECTIVE: To determine if race and ethnicity, health beliefs, and cancer knowledge are associated with delays in care for abnormal Pap smears. DESIGN, PARTICIPANTS, AND SETTING: We conducted a mailed survey with telephone follow-up of all women with an abnormal Pap smear who received care at Kaiser Permanente Los Angeles Medical Center between October 1998 and October 1999 (n=1,049). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A delay in care was defined as not attending the first scheduled clinic visit to follow up on an abnormal Pap smear, or requiring multiple contact attempts, including a certified letter, to schedule a follow-up visit. Our response rate was 70% (n=733) and the sample was 51% Latina. Spanish-speaking Latinas and women of Asian descent were more likely to endorse fatalistic beliefs and misconceptions about cancer. Thirteen percent of the sample delayed follow-up on their abnormal Pap smear. Women who delayed care were more fatalistic and endorsed more misconceptions about cervical cancer. Delays in care were not independently associated with race and ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Health beliefs and cancer knowledge differed by race and ethnicity among women in a large managed care organization. Fatalistic health beliefs and misconceptions about cancer, but not race and ethnicity, were independently associated with delays in care.